AFL Preliminary Finals Expert Betting Tips

The AFL Finals continues the preliminary finals, kicking off with Sydney vs Port Adelaide on Friday night.

We have AFL betting tips for every game in 2024, including both games this week, which also features Geelong vs Brisbane on Saturday.

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AFL Preliminary Finals Tips

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Friday 20/9/24

7:40pm Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power @ SCG

The Sydney Swans have been waiting patiently for their opponent, and they are the worthy favourites against the Port Adelaide Power.

We were impressed with Port Adelaide’s performance to beat the Hawthorn Hawks last week, but the Hawks were well below their best. However, credit to the Power’s midfield defence, which made countless tackles and kept the pressure up throughout the game.

We’re unsure if they can muscle up in consecutive weeks, especially against a rested Swans team, who was the best team throughout the regular season.

It’s tough to look past the Swans, who defeated GWS 88-82 in the opening week of the finals. It was a solid performance against a steaky Giants outfit, but they will need to play better to put the Power away with ease.

Bookmakers have the line at –20.5, which is warranted, and because of the week off last week, we’re backing Sydney to prevail. It should be fit and ready to go, and with Port Adelaide playing one of the more physical games against Hawthorn, that could take its toll in the second half on Friday.

Betting tip: Sydney –20.5 @ $1.90

Sydney by 24

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Saturday 21/9/24

7:15pm Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions @ MCG

There isn’t much between the Cats and Lions in betting markets, with the Cats slight favourites at $1.73.

It comes after Brisbane produced an epic comeback to beat GWS 105-100 last week, when the Lions looked down and out of the game. However, heroic play from Joe Daniher was enough to get Brisbane over the line in dramatic circumstances.

Momentum is with the Lions, but the Cats have been lying in wait following a massive 138-54 win over Port Adelaide in Week 1 of the AFL Finals. It’s hard not to look past that performance, especially as Port Adelaide have since franked the form.

Based on that performance, we expected the Cats to be around $1.50. Punters shouldn’t expect Brisbane to produce a heroic performance in consecutive weeks, and the market could reflect recency bias.

It was a low-scoring affair when they last met in Round 6. The Cats won 63-37 in Brisbane, so the Lions will need to turn that performance around. A lot of water has gone under the bridge since then, but it’s a good form guide.

We’re backing Geelong to prevail, and the odds are better than we expected. We would have been happy to take shorter odds, so getting $1.73 and a –4.5 line is far too generous to pass up.

Geelong should have too much scoring power for the Lions, who could struggle to come down following an emotional performance.

Betting tip: Geelong @ $1.73

Geelong by 10

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