Carlton vs. Richmond Predictions – AFL Round 1 2026

We have Carlton vs. Richmond predictions for AFL Round 1 on Thursday, March 12 at 7:30pm at the MCG.

Round 1 action kicks off with Carlton vs. Richmond, where Carlton is best-backed to rebound from an opening round loss to Sydney.

Carlton vs. Richmond Predictions

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Best Bet

Carlton should be far too good for Richmond, and having a game under its belt, despite losing, is a good thing.

The Blues were no match for Sydney in the second half last week, but punters should be encouraged by the way they started the game. They were the better first-half team, and although the class of Sydney made the scoreline unflattering, Carlton can build on it.

The current AFL spread is –18.5, which is in the high range against Richmond. The Tigers are due for another poor season, but it could be a closer game than bookmakers expect. There is better value in backing Carlton 1-39, as we don’t think they’re quite there yet to post a 40+ win.

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Same Game Multi

Ben Ainsworth should be buoyed by his performance against the Swans. He kicked two goals in a losing effort, and although the team couldn’t muster much, his confidence levels should have risen with that effort. Punters get $1.97 for Ainsworth 2+ goals, which is a good AFL same game multi bet inclusion.

We expect Tom Lynch to play well for Richmond. He has six goals from his last two games, and although they lack midfield depth, Lynch is a prolific goal scorer, and he should kick two goals with ease. The $1.57 odds are good for building multi odds.

Carlton and Richmond are ready to shake off the dust, and it should be a high-scoring game. Over 177.5 points is a good multi bet addition.

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Best Value Bet

Bookmakers aren’t expecting a big performance from Richmond, and although we have them losing the game, Lynch should be their standout player.

He comes off consecutive three-goal games, and we’re backing him to make it three on the bounce. Carlton’s defence could lack confidence after getting lit up by Sydney, and Lynch could take advantage.

The $2.75 odds are too good to turn down, so take them as an AFL value bet.