Essendon vs. Hawthorn Predictions – AFL Round 1 2026

We have Essendon vs. Hawthorn predictions for AFL Round 1 on Friday, March 13 at 7:40pm at the MCG.

Looking to end a 13-game losing streak is Essendon, who could cause an upset in their first game of the year.

Essendon vs. Hawthorn Predictions

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Best Bet

It’s not easy to back Essendon after a tough 2025 campaign, but we’re prepared to give them a chance to start the year.

Round 1 is the best time to bet on teams like the Bombers, as their confidence levels could take a dive with a couple of big losses. However, we see this squad putting together a good game, and they’re facing a Hawthorn team coming off a loss.

The Hawks have an excellent team on paper, and they’re a shoo-in for a playoff spot, but they struggled against GWS last week, particularly on the defensive end. They allowed 122 points, and if Essendon’s scorers can convert their opportunities, they should make a game of it.

The +28.5 start is big enough to include Essendon in AFL Round 1 picks.

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Same Game Multi

Essendon could do with a big performance from Zach Merritt, who had 28 disposals in his most recent game. A similar effort would be ideal, and we have him posting 25+ disposals against Hawthorn, which pays $1.92.

They could also do with Nate Caddy scoring goals. They need to keep up with the Hawks on the offensive end, and Caddy is good enough to kick a few goals. We’re including the $1.77 odds in our AFL same game multi picks.

Under 189.5 is a good addition to multis. They could struggle to get going in the early rounds, and our final score predicton is a total of 182 points.

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Best Value Bet

There is good value with Essendon leading after the first quarter. The Bombers should come out of the gates swinging, and they could pressure Hawthorn into making errors in the opening quarter.

Essendon often starts well before being overrun in the second half, and that could be the case again, so take the value odds for the underdogs.