Hawthorn vs. Richmond Predictions – AFL Round 8 2025

AFL action continues Sunday May 4 starts with Hawthorn vs. Richmond at 3:20pm at MCG, which could be the most one-sided game of the week. Hawthorn has solidified a top four spot, but Richmond is just attempting to stave off the dreaded wooden spoon.

Hawthorn vs. Richmond Predictions

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Best Bet

Over 178.5 @ $1.90

Over 178.5 points is our best bet for Hawthorn vs. Richmond, and that’s because the –49.5 line is too close to call. We are confident with the over cashing, especially with 199 points scored in their most recent meeting. That was a big scoring night compared to their prior meeting where Richmond managed just 49 points, but we expect its offence to hold up well enough. The Tigers still have goal scorers in their team, so they only need to score around 65-70 points for the over to cash, as Hawthorn should do most of the heavy lifting. The Hawks scored 124 points on West Coast last week, with a total of 198 points combined. Punters should expect something similar on Sunday afternoon.

Same Game Multi

Hawthorn 40+, Jack Gunston 3+ Goals, Tom J. Lynch 2+ Goals, Total Match Points Over 178.5 @ $6.25

There is some risk with taking Hawthorn –49.5, so we’re taking the shorter odds for it to win 40+. It’s a key 9.5 points to work with and given that the Hawks didn’t cover the big spread last week, the safer option is wise. We fancy Jack Gunston to score 3+ goals. He was dominant last week, scoring four goals against West Coast, and we see no reason why he won’t kick at least three goals against Richmond. He has 13 goals from his last three games, so he’s one of the form players in the AFL. Tom J. Lynch came up trumps for us last week with three goals, and getting $1.88 for him to score 2+ goals is a good price. He is the savior in front of goal for Richmond, which needs him to have a big game.

Best Value Bet

Josh Battle 30+ Disposals @ $16.00

Josh Battle getting 30+ disposals might seem unlikely, hence the $16 odds, but he had 29 last week against West Coast, so anything is possible. He improved on previous totals of 14, 19, 13, and 21, but if Battle can keep the same enthusiasm, and the game is played tight in the first half, Battle could produce a seasons’ best. The odds make him a worthwhile wager, and there are shorter odds available for 20+ and 25+ disposals.