We have Melbourne vs. Collingwood predictions for action on Monday June 9 at 5:20pm at the MCG.
King’s Birthday action sees a cracking game between Melbourne and Collingwood, where the Magpies have been picked to stay atop of the AFL premiership.
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Melbourne vs. Collingwood Predictions
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Best Bet
Punters would have expected a bigger line for Collingwood against Melbourne, so we’re jumping on the –23.5 line whilst it’s available.
Collingwood have been dominant for much of the year, posting a 10-2 record, and winning four games on the bounce over Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Adelaide, and Fremantle. They are some of the best teams in the comp, despite beating Adelaide 78-68.
That holds them in good stead for a Melbourne team coming off a disappointing 91-63 loss to St Kilda. The Saints had been playing awfully, so for the Demons to let that game slip, it’s a testament to their struggles.
Take the Magpies –23.5, in a game that should dominate from the outset.
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Same Game Multi
Collingwood has a good offence, but the game should go under 165.5 points. Collingwood and Melbourne combined for 160, 140, and 113 points in their last three meetings, so we’re not sure why the points total is so high.
We’re also not sure why Jamie Elliott is paying $2.12 to score 3+ goals. The Collingwood star has been on fire recently, scoring 10 goals from his last two games, and he’ll be licking his lips at the prospect of playing against Melbourne’s defence.
He’s an excellent value pick for same game multis, and we’re also taking the shorter odds for Brody Mihocek to score 2+ goals. He’s a reliable boot, kicking four goals against Hawthorn, and the $1.55 odds are juicy enough to boost AFL multi bets. He is a chance of scoring 3+ goals at $2.75, but we went for the safer option.
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Best Value Bet
We’re going out of the box with this pick in the hopes of finding great value. We have picked Melbourne to lead after the first quarter and Collingwood to lead after every other quarter.
As the market suggests, Melbourne could make a solid start and give Collingwood something to think about. However, as fatigue starts to set in, the Magpies should finish much the stronger, and they should take a halftime lead.
The odds make this play worth including in AFL predictions.
