UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira Predictions

UFC Fight Night 266: Bautista vs. Oliveira takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC Fight Night 266 Predictions

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Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira Prediction

Mario Bautista was on an eight-fight winning streak prior to his loss against Umar Nurmagomedov back in October. Now he comes up against Vinicius Oliveira, who is 4-0 in the UFC so far.

The 32-year-old Bautista is an industrious and well-rounded fighter. On the feet he doesn’t wield much of a finishing threat, with only three TKO wins to his name, but he makes up for that with his high-volume striking, good cardio and durability, which enables him to push the pace and apply constant pressure from start to finish. Bautista also has strong clinch control and will work for takedowns too, opening up opportunities for capable ground-and-pound, while his submission game has been responsible for six career finishes.

The 30-year-old Oliveira is an athletic, dynamic striker who arrived in the Octagon in some style after a quick KO win on the Contender Series, followed by a flying knee KO victory in his UFC debut in 2024. He’s not been able to keep that finishing run going in recent fights as his standard of opposition has risen significantly, but he’s still remained active and aggressive in the striking exchanges, and managed to get the better of Ricky Simon, Said Nurmagomedov and Kyler Phillips on the scorecards in the process. If there’s one point of concern though it’s that all three of his career losses have come via strikes, including two by KO, though the last of those was back in 2022. Meanwhile, Oliveira’s ground game isn’t as potent as his stand-up, but he did notch up a couple of submission wins early in his career.

Oliveira is the harder-hitter here, but Bautista is tough to finish, and in a five-round fight he’s going to be able to leverage his superior conditioning to set a tempo that his opponent will struggle to maintain into the final rounds.  So I’ll take Bautista to win on the scorecards here.

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Amir Albazi vs. Kyoji Horiguchi Prediction

Amir Albazi is coming off his first loss in the UFC as he now moves on to fight Kyoji Horiguchi, who earned a submission win in his return to the Octagon last November.

Albazi’s UFC run got off to a perfect start, winning five fights in a row, but he’s hit some major bumps in the road since then. Back in 2023 following a win over Kai Kara-France he had to undergo heart surgery due to having an irregular heartbeat, and then to make matters worse soon after he also required neck surgery due to a career-threatening injury that could have left him paralyzed. In total he was out for a year-and-a-half before returning for a challenging fight against Brandon Moreno last year that he lost by unanimous decision. It’s all very unfortunate as the now 32-year-old Albazi is certainly a talented fighter with a well-rounded skill-set. He’s not the most active or powerful striker, but he’s well-versed technically and is defensively sound too. Albazi blends his martial arts well, transitioning smoothly to his offensive wrestling, while he’s also found success with his grappling game, notching up 9 submission wins from 16 career victories.

Horiguchi was a highly regarded fighter in the UFC back in the mid-2010’s, compiling a 7-1 run, with his only loss being in a title fight with UFC legend Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson. Surprisingly he then left to fight for Rizin in 2017, where he remained for over 7 years, winning both their flyweight and bantamweight titles, as well as Bellator’s 135lb title. He beat notable names like Manel Kape, Kai Asakura, Ian McCall and Sergio Pettis during that time, before finally returning to the UFC late last year, where he proved he’s still got it with a convincing win over Tagir Ulnabekov. The 35-year-old remains fast, athletic, and is a threat wherever the fight goes. He has good power for his size, registering 15 finishes his strikes over the years, but is also a very respectable offensive wrestler, carries a significant submission threat and can work back to his feet if taken down. It’s worth noting Horiguchi did suffer KO losses in his first fights with Asakura and Pettis back in 2019 and 2021 respectively, but he went on to avenge both those defeats and hasn’t been stopped since.

This is a well-matched fight stylistically, but there’s still lingering doubts about Albazi given his major health challenges in recent years, and with Horiguchi impressing in his UFC comeback fight and having the more active, impactful striking game, I’ll take him to emerge with a decision victory here.

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Jailton Almeida vs. Rizvan Kuniev Prediction

Jailton Almeida comes in off a split-decision loss to Alexander Volkov to take a short-notice fight against Rizvan Kuniev, who also suffered a split-decision defeat in his UFC debut against Curtis Blaydes.

The 34-year-old Almeida has gone 8-2 in the UFC so far, but the 6th ranked heavyweight hasn’t quite been able to put together another wins to get into title contention. Almeida has an athletic build and will have a 3″ reach advantage over Kunkiev, while being about 25lbs lighter. Striking isn’t really Almeida’s game, but he uses his speed and footwork well to steer clear of danger and then pick his moments to close the distance. Almeida is a good wrestler and has shown strong control on top. He also has an excellent finishing record on the mat, with only one of his 22 career victories coming via the scorecards. 13 of those came via his well-versed submission game, while he’s also a clear threat via ground-and-pound too. That being said, he was disappointingly cautious and inactive on top against Volkov last time out, and that baffling strategic blunder cost him the fight.

The 33-year-old Kuniev won twice on the Contender Series to earn his spot on the UFC roster, but was then given a tough match-up for his promotional debut against Blaydes. It wasn’t the most eventful fight, but even so a split-decision defeat against a top 5 ranked opponent was a respectable result, particularly since he’s only been fighting once a year since 2021. Kuniev comes from Dagestan, but he’s much more of a striker than a wrestler, favoring a boxing style with respectable power, mixed in with kicks and knees, while he can operate in the clinch too. And of course he does have a capable ground game too when required, and has never been finished in his 17-fight career to date.

Kuniev will be hoping to keep this one upright and, but I think Almeida will be able to get a few takedowns and spells of control time. And learning from his mistakes last time out I’d expect him to be a bit more active on top to ensure he at least wins those rounds, though I think he’ll eventually settle for a decision victory rather than a finish.

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Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-Andre Barriault Prediction

Michal Oleksiejczuk comes in off two 1st round TKO victories in 2025 to fight Marc-Andre Barriault, who has lost four of his last five bouts.

Oleksiejczuk is an aggressive striker who seeks to make up for his lack of technical finesse with a pressure-heavy, hard-hitting brand of striking from the opening bell that’s led to a slew of fast finishes. In fact, of his 9 UFC victories to date, no less than 8 of them have been via strikes inside the first five minutes. In doing so Oleksiejczuk does throw caution to the wind, and as such is always there to be hit, but he’s proven to be durable and has only TKO’d once, over a decade ago. However, Oleksiejczuk’s biggest weakness is his defense on the mat, with 5 of his 7 UFC losses having come via submission.

The 35-year-old Barriault’s fighting career has largely been built on being a tough, durable slugger who looks to apply pressure and outlast his opponents in a back-and-forth striking battle. Even at his best this fairly limited approach delivered mixed results, and so by the end of 2023 he was only 5-5 (+1nc) in the UFC.  By that stage he’d still only ever been stopped once in his career, but the following year Barriault lost three times, including back-to-back 1st round KO losses, suggesting his durability was in decline. Barriault did KO a completely washed Bruno Silva next time out, but had to absorb a lot of punishment during a decision loss to Shara Magomedov last time out as his poor run of form continued.

Oleksiejczuk won’t have to worry about his shaky submission defense here, and his power and durability on the feet adds up to a bad night for Barriault, leading him to a 1st round KO victory.

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Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat Prediction

Jean Matsumoto is 3-1 in the UFC so far and now fights Farid Basharat, who has won all five of his bouts in the Octagon.

A split-decision loss to UFC veteran Rob Font a year ago was the 26-year-old Matsumoto’s first and only taste of defeat in his 17-1 career so far. Matsumoto is a quick, high-volume muay thai striker who does a nice job of picking out his shots and shows a good level of comfort trading at close quarters, though he is a bit too willing to eat punches. Matsumoto hasn’t proven to have much stopping power so far, aside from a trio of TKO wins very early in his career. However, he is also a solid grappler and that’s led him to 6 wins via submission, while he has good conditioning for fights that go the distance.

The 28-year-old Basharat is a perfect 14-0 in his career, but the Contender Series recruit has had to put together a lengthy string of wins in the Octagon to finally earn this spot on a main card. Basharat lacks power on the feet, but is very competent technically, moves well, has good volume, and is solid defensively. Basharat switches easily into a well-executed wrestling game and is very assured in the grappling department, which has led to 6 submission finishes.

This is a well-matched fight between two talented fighters with impressive records. As such I’d expect a competitive fight in all aspects, but I do think Basharat being a bit more defensively sound on the feet and having sturdier wrestling will help him to edge out a close decision victory.

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Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker Prediction

Dustin Jacoby is coming off back-to-back wins via knockout and now goes up against Julius Walker, who has gone 1-1 in the UFC so far.

The 37-year-old Jacoby’s recent resurgence looked unlikely as recently as a year-and-a-half ago when he was in the midst of a slump in form that saw him go just 1-4, culminating in a 1st round KO loss to Dominick Reyes in the summer of 2024. A KO win over Vitor Petrino before that year was over was a big confidence boost for him though, and he’s been able to repeat that feat with another knockout win since. It’s perhaps nothing new for Jacoby as he’s experienced big dips in form before during both his lengthy MMA and kickboxing careers. Jacoby remains a sturdy physical presence and solid kickboxer who sticks largely to the fundamentals rather than flashy techniques, with his punching power and heavy low kicks being tried and trusted weapons, while he can also look after himself fairly well on the mat.

The 26-year-old Walker is still less than three years into his pro MMA career, going 7-1 so far, though he did compete on the amateur circuit before that. He’s a good athlete and has some level of comfort wherever the fight goes. On the feet he fires off good straight punches and nice low kicks, while he’s also able to take the fight to the mat and deliver solid ground-and-pound and seek out submission attempts too. So far only one of his 7 wins so far has gone the distance, but he hasn’t faced much notable opposition along the way, other than a split-decision loss to Alonzo Menifield. And so, while he’s still improving from fight-to-fight it does feel like more experienced fighters could cause him problems, either with more nuanced striking, or testing his unconvincing takedown defense and tendency to give up his back easily.

Walker is a capable fighter with room to develop, but I think this fight against Jacoby will prove to be another learning experience as the veteran gains the upper-hand with his striking experience to win by decision.

UFC Fight Night 266 Prelims

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(Predicted winners in bold)

Alex Morono vs. Daniil Donchenko
Bruna Brasil vs. Ketlen Souza
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Javid Basharat
Wang Cong vs. Eduarda Moura
Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wikłacz
Klaudia Syguła vs. Priscila Cachoeira