UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady Predictions

UFC Fight Night 242 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, United States and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC Fight Night 242 Predictions

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Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady Prediction

Former welterweight title contender Gilbert Burns is coming off back-to-back losses as he now gets ready to headline this event against Sean Brady, who submitted Kelvin Gastelum last time out to go 6-1 in the UFC so far.

It’s concerning that the 38-year-old Burns was KO’d by Jack Della Maddalena back in March, but that outcome doesn’t tell the full story as he was up by two rounds on two judges scorecards heading into the final five minutes. So despite getting up there in years he remains a tough fighter to go up against with his well-rounded skills and experience. Despite not being the biggest 170lb’er he applies a lot of pressure on the feet and throws with enough power to earn respect. Meanwhile he’s also a solid wrestler, but it’s really his high-level BJJ that’s his biggest strength, and that makes him confident about going to the mat with anyone.

The 31-year-old Brady is a respectable enough striker with a capable boxing and kicking game, but he does lack a cutting edge in terms of a finishing threat. Meanwhile he’s physically strong and does well both in the clinch and wrestling departments, while he’s also a very assured grappler who has shown a consistent ability to control opponents. He does also pose a submission threat, though he’d need something special to become the first fighter to ever submit Burns.

If this fight was a few years ago I’d likely be more confident in a Burns pick here. At 38-years-old his last loss likely killed of his hopes of another title shot, while at 31 Brady is in his prime and hungry to move into title contention. I do feel that Burns has the edge in the stand-up department though and will land the more impactful blows, but I could see Brady employing more of a grinding approach from the clinch and via careful wrestling work. Burns will be hard to deal with on the mat though, and with his tenacity and energy in the later rounds I’ll take the veteran to edge out a win here.

Prediction: Gilbert Burns to win by decision.

Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva Prediction

Former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade is coming off back-to-back wins as she now gets ready for a flyweight fight against Natalia Silva, who is 5-0 in the UFC.

It wasn’t that long ago that the 32-year-old Andrade was going through a very poor run of form, having been finished three times in a row. But to her credit the battling Brazilian has got back on track with two wins since then. Andrade is still the fighter she’s always been though, with her hard-headed, brawling style of striking being paired up with brute-force wrestling that sees her use her strength to slam opponents to the mat and maul them with aggressive ground-and-pound. Her offensive approach relies on being able to walk through her opponents strikes though, but she’s not quite as durable as she once was, while on the mat she’s susceptible to submissions. So opponents who can stay calm under pressure have been able to exploit her weaknesses, and Andrade’s failure to evolve means if things go badly she tends to just double down on her pressure and aggression, which just makes matters worse.

The 27-year-old Silva has performed well in the UFC so far with a well-developed skill-set that makes her a threat both on the feet and on the mat. Striking wise she’ll have a 3″ height and reach advantage here and is better technically than her opponent as well as well as having a speed advantage and good footwork. Her kicking game is notable, having TKO’d Tereza Bleda with a spinning back kick and Victoria Leonardo with a head kick during her UFC run, and she has good volume too. Meanwhile Silva is a respectable wrestler and good grappler, demonstrating a particular penchant for armbar submissions, while her takedown defense is solid too.

You have to respect the fact that Andrade has dug herself out of a tough spot recently, but her weaknesses haven’t gone away. So I’m picking the slicker, more technical Silva to keep her at bay and take advantage of the holes in her defense to earn a decision win here.

Prediction: Natalia Silva to win by decision.

Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson Prediction

Two in-form fighters clash here, with Steve Garcia being on a four-fight winning streak, while Kyle Nelson is coming off three wins and a draw in his last four appearances.

The 32-year-old Garcia is a tall featherweight at 6ft, but so is Nelson, who stands only an inch shorter. That being said, Garcia does have a 4″ reach advantage to work with. He’s a gritty, aggressive, volume striker who tends to throw everything into his punches, but has better accuracy than you might expect. He also has an impressive finishing record, claiming 13 of his 16 career wins via strikes, including stoppages in every bout on his current win streak. His nasty ground-and-pound has a big part to play when he can get the fight to the mat, though on the flipside he can be out-wrestled at times.

The 33-year-old Nelson’s current form, including a significant 1st round TKO win over Bill Algeo last time out, is somewhat unexpected given that he lost four of his first five fights in the UFC. He likes to bully opponents with a solid mix of boxing and wrestling, has good power, and despite his lanky build is happy to work at close range. He can offer a threat via submission too at times, but on the downside he is quite hittable and can slow down later on in his fights.

These two might be overachieving at the moment, but I think Garcia is more likely to keep his run of form going here, making use of his reach advantage and knockout power to punish Nelson for his defensive lapses, leading to a 2nd round TKO win.

Prediction: Steve Garcia to win by TKO in Rd2.

Matt Schnell vs. Cody Durden Prediction

Coming in off two knockout losses in a row, Matt Schnell was originally scheduled to fight Alessandro Costa at this event, but on a week’s notice he’s now going up against Cody Durden, who has also suffered back-to-back defeats.

The 34-year-old Schnell can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that his losses were against quality flyweights in Steve Erceg and Matheus Nicolau. However, it’s no freak occurrence that both losses were by KO as all five of his career defeats have come in that fashion, and that includes back-to-back knockouts at the very start of his UFC run in 2016. So his chin is clearly an issue, and that’s always a worry given that ‘Danger’ is naturally aggressive and likes to take the fight to his opponents. With that being said, Schnell is still a problem for his opponents though as he is doggedly determined on the feet, puts combinations together nicely and has respectable power, while on the mat he is a good grappler with proven finishing ability, with submissions accounting for 9 of his 16 career wins.

The 33-year-old Durden’s form coming into this one isn’t great either, including suffering the first TKO loss of his career back in July, but he was on a four-fight winning streak prior to his two losses. Durden is a respectable wrestler with reliable takedowns who can control on top, has solid scrambling ability and can go for submissions, while on the feet he has decent boxing and reasonable power. However, submissions have been a persistent issue for Durden, resulting in three defeats during his UFC run, which will be a concern against a grappler like Schnell.

It always feels risky to pick Schnell giving his very suspect chin, but if you can’t KO him he’s hard to beat. Durden has some pop in his punches, but he’s not the most dangerous striker and his tendency to wrestle and problematic submission defense could be as big of an issue as his opponent’s chin given Schnell’s crafty submission game. So while it’s not a confident pick I’m going to say Schnell mixes things up and navigates his way to a second round submission victory.

Prediction: Matt Schnell to win by submission in Rd2.

Trevor Peek vs. Yanal Ashmouz Prediction

Former Contender Series prospect Trevor Peek has gone 2-2 in the UFC and now takes on Yanal Ashmouz, who has a win and a loss.

The 29-year-old Peek burst into the UFC throwing caution to the wind with wildly aggressive flurries of punches and kicks along with the occasional takedown, but little in the way of technique or defense. That intensity served him well on the regional circuit and earned him a TKO win on the Contender Series and a KO finish in his UFC debut, but he’s since fought to a judges decision on three occasions and lost two of them. There’s signs that he’s working to develop his all-round game and incorporate more wrestling into the mix, but he’s still very rough around the edges.

The 29-year-old Ashmouz is somewhat of an action-fighter too, but he’s a bit more technical than Peek. He throws his strikes with good power and that stays with him deep into his fights, which has helped him win some bouts he might otherwise have lost. His takedown defense isn’t the best, but he’s not too bad on the mat and can operate in the clinch too.

Peek has good energy, power and durability, but I think Ashmouz will be able to cope with that while proving to be a bit more skilled wherever the fight goes to edge out a decision victory.

Prediction: Yanal Ashmouz to win by decision.

Rong Zhu vs. Chris Padilla Prediction

After winning ‘Road To UFC’ Season 2’s lightweight tournament Rong Zhu now moves on to fight Chris Padilla, who won his UFC debut in April by submission.

Zhu actually had a previous 1-2 run in the UFC between 2021-2022, and despite still only being 24-years-old he’s already amassed a 25-5 career record. Zhu is a good sized lightweight with solid boxing ability and significant power, together with decent wrestling and an occasional submission threat. He has been submitted four times in his career though, including once during his previous spell in the UFC.

The 28-year-old Padilla has a 14-6 career record and is on a four-fight winning streak that includes a win in his UFC debut, but he’d actually lost four out of five fights before that. So it still remains to be seen whether he’s got what it takes to stick around at this level. He has good reach for his size, but his striking ability is fairly rudimentary, so he’ll seek out takedown opportunities and look for a mix of ground-and-pound and submissions on the mat in search of a finish.

Neither of these fighters really stands out, but I think Zhu is the better of the two and I’ll take him to keep this one on the feet for the most part and win the striking battle over three rounds to come away with a decision victory.

Prediction: Rong Zhu to win by decision.

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