UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
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UFC 319 Predictions
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Dricus du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev Prediction
Dricus du Plessis made a 2nd successful defense of the middleweight title and extended his UFC winning streak to nine fights by defeating Sean Strickland in their rematch back in February. Next he’ll come up against the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev, who is 14-0 in his career and earned his eight UFC win with a swift submission finish of Robert Whittaker last October.
The 31-year-old du Plessis is a muscular powerhouse whose brute-force approach to striking has proven surprisingly effective against more refined technicians like Israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland and Robert Whittaker in recent years. DDP isn’t the kind of fighter who is going to focus to much on setting up his strikes or cutting angles, and instead bursts forward with explosive flurries of at times unrefined, but undeniably powerful punches, while also finding opportunities to threaten with a fast and powerful head kick. Despite his size and the inefficiency of his punching technique, du Plessis has so far showcased a deeper gas tank than you might expect and has a knack for fighting on regardless even when he is tired. That will-power helps him to maintain his high-volume attacks if can’t find a finish, while his rugged durability helps makes up for his defensive failings. Du Plessis can also outmuscle his opponents to land takedowns and does have a proven submission game, but he can be taken down too.
The 31-year-old Khamzat seemed to be a world-beater during his whirlwind introduction to the UFC back in 2020, running through his first three opponents with ease in the space of a month. Health problems and injuries have plagued him since however, leading to three separate year-long absences from the Octagon. To his credit though, when he has fought he’s managed to maintain his winning streak, claiming five more victories. It’s not always been as quick and easy as before though as he was forced into a three round battle with Gilbert Burns at 170lbs back in 2022, and had to settle for a majority decision win over Kamaru Usman at 185lbs in 2023. However, he did run through Kevin Holland, Li Jingliang and most recently Robert Whittaker last October to remind everyone how deadly of a finisher he can be. Khamzat is an elite wrestler who is able to ragdoll his opponents to the mat, has very strong control on top and an accomplished submission game to go with it. His striking isn’t on the same level, but he is still confident on the feet with respectable technique and good power. Cardio is a concern for Khamzat though, and that could be a particular concern if he has to fight beyond the third round for the first time in his career.
Khamzat is the more talented fighter here, but DDP has repeatedly proven to be greater than the sum of his parts. I do expect Khamzat will have success with his fast, versatile takedown attempts that he can chain together if required. Things will start to get very interesting if the tough-as-nails champ is able to survive on the mat though as there’s a real risk the challenger’s early exertion will leave him tiring in the later rounds as has happened in the past. However, while DDP is very capable on the mat, he’s never faced anyone with Khamzat’s ability and ferocity there, and so I’m taking the challenger to overwhelm him early to win by submission in the first round.
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Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico Prediction
Lerone Murphy is undefeated in his 17 fight career, including eight wins and a draw so far in the Octagon. Now he’ll welcome former Bellator star Aaron Pico for his UFC debut, coming in off a three-fight winning streak.
The 34-year-old Murphy is an athletic striker with sound boxing technique who combines speed and accuracy well, while also mixing in kicks and well-timed knee strikes too. He can also seek out occasional takedowns and look for ground-and-pound, but he’s not proven to be a submission threat yet. Murphy is strategic in his approach and won’t just go all-out searching for a finish, Instead pacing himself and picking his shots to outpoint his opponents from round-to-round, and he’s also proven he has the cardio to do so over 25 minutes.
The 28-year-old Pico was initially a stand-out amateur wrestler who was an alternate at the Olympics in 2016, and had boxing experience in his youth too, so when he turned his attention to MMA, Bellator immediately picked him up, and he’s been their ever since until finally making the jump over to the UFC. Despite his high potential things haven’t always gone his way though as he was submitted in his MMA debut back in 2017, and while he went on to prove he had genuine knockout power on the feet in the four fights that followed, he then suffered back-to-back KO and TKO losses that threatened to derail his hype train entirely. However, Pico has won 9 of his 10 fights since then and is coming off back-to-back TKO victories. He’s still in his prime years, continues to be a stand-out athlete who provides a two-pronged threat with his boxing and wrestling, and the UFC clearly hold Pico in high regard given that they are already putting him into a high-profile co-main event spot on a PPV card.
Pico certainly deserves his spot in the UFC, but his durability remains a concern and a good chunk of his Bellator career was spent fighting lesser known fighters. The UFC are taking a different approach and throwing him straight in against an undefeated rising force, and while Murphy might not be as hard a hitter or as skilled of a wrester, he is a talented fighter in his own right who also has good athleticism, is more consistent and cerebral in his approach, and I think he’ll outpoint Pico on the scorecards here.
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Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates Prediction
Geoff Neal bounced back from a couple of defeats with a TKO win over Rafael dos Anjos last time out and now fights Carlos Prates, whose four-fight winning start in the UFC ended after a unanimous decision loss to Ian Garry in April.
While the 34-year-old Neal did technically get back in the win column last time out, it was actually a freak knee injury suffered by RDA just 90 seconds into the fight that ended the contest. Nevertheless, Neal is one of the division’s heavier hitters, possessing explosive one-punch power and dangerous head kicks too, leading to 10 of his 16 career wins coming via strikes. Slicker, more technical strikers can be an issue for him and he is hittable, but he’s only been stopped once in his 22-fight career. Meanwhile, Neal can operate from the clinch and has solid takedown defense, but only rarely seeks out takedowns, though he does have heavy ground-and-pound if he does get on top.
The 31-year-old Prates is an experienced striker who for many years balanced his MMA career alongside frequent muay thai bouts in Thailand and China. Prates may have been hedging his bets as he initially got off to a bad start in MMA, only going 5-4, but he learned from that early adversity and had won 14 of his last 15 fights prior to his decision loss to Garry earlier in 2025. Prates is a good athlete, mixes up his strikes with solid accuracy and has proven finishing power, having won 16 of his 21 fights courtesy of punches, kicks and knees. He doesn’t have much to offer on the mat aside from a few submission wins early in his career, but he does have fairly reliable takedown defense to keep the fight where he wants it.
Neal’s explosive power means he’s always a threat, but I think his focus on landing single knockout blows is going to come off second-best against Prates, who isn’t always the most active striker himself, but is more fluid and versatile, yet still potent with his array of strikes. A finish is very possible, but I’ll say Prates battles his way to a win on the scorecards.
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Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page Prediction
Jared Cannonier lost both of his fights last year, but got back to winning ways in February with a TKO victory over Gregory Rodrigues. Now he returns to action against Michael ‘Venom’ Page, who handed Shara Magomedov his first career loss last time out.
Cannonier is now 41-years-old, so getting that win over Rodrigues was important to prove he’s not over the hill yet. It was far from plain sailing however as Rodrigues floored him twice in the opening round, but he showed heart to fight through that and proved to have the better cardio as the rounds continued on his way to a 4th round TKO finish. Cannonier’s speed and reactions might not be as sharp as they once were, and he’s not quite as active offensively as he once was, but he is still a good athlete for his age and remains physically strong. He has respectable technique and good power in his punches, while he also continues to dish out damaging low kicks to good effect and can work for takedowns to land hard ground-and-pound.
The 38-year-old Page is 2-1 since joining from Bellator last year and has given a good account of himself so far. Page is a skilful striker with a tall, lengthy frame, very good athleticism and plenty of creative flair. Page will have a 4″ height and 2.5″ reach advantage here, and he likes to use his distance management to stay patient on the outside and then use his speed and timing to suddenly explode into fast, dynamic and accurate attacks. His preference to pick his moments to strike means his overall output is on the lower-side however, and he’s also not the best at dealing with leg kicks.
Cannonier sticks more to fundamentals, and his steady approach together with good low kicks and potential takedown threat could prove useful here. That being said, I think he’ll struggle with Page’s tricky style and range, and with Cannonier starting to get hurt more in his fights I can see ‘Venom’ putting him in trouble at times with his offensive bursts, thoughe’ll ultimately settle for a decision win.
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Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura Prediction
It’s been over a year-and-a-half since Tim Elliott’s last Octagon appearance saw him earn a 1st round submission win. Now he returns to the Octagon to fight former Rizin champion Kai Asakura, who was unsuccessful in his attempt to win the UFC’s 125lb title in his debut back in December of last year.
A former TUF champ with a long history in the UFC, Elliott was having his best run of form when we last saw him, having gone 5-2 since 2020. The downside is that his last fight was back in December of 2023, and at 38-years-old he’s admitted during fight week that he’s starting to feel his age, though he still loves to fight. Elliott has always been a tricky fighter to deal with due to his unorthodox and sometimes just downright awkward style. He’s far from a technical striker and lacks power, but his herky-jerky rhythm and strikes from unexpected angles can throw his opponents off their game. He’s tough too, though his tendency to keep his hands low is risky. His ground game is certainly his strongest suit though, being in his element when he’s able to use his grimy wrestling and grappling chops to create scrambles and wear on his opponent while hunting down potential submission opportunities.
The 31-year-old Asakura didn’t make a big impact in his UFC debut, but there’s no shame in coming off second-best against the dominant flyweight champ Pantoja. Asakura remains an exciting addition to the 125lb ranks as he’s a dangerous, aggressive striker who has finishing power in his punches and is adept at landing potentially fight-ending knee strikes too. It helps that he’s also big for the division too as a former bantamweight, and he will have a 3″ reach advantage on Saturday night. Asakura is there to be hit and has been finished a few times, but he’s unlikely to be concerned by that here due to Elliott’s lack of stopping power. However, while he is generally fairly capable on the mat he will likely be looking to use his takedown defense to try to avoid Elliott’s crafty ground game.
With Elliott getting up there in years now and coming off a long layoff I think his usual style of keeping his hands low on the feet and relying on his reactive head movement to avoid strikes could well get him in trouble here, with Asakura’s speed, power and finishing instincts catching him out to deliver a first round TKO finish.
UFC 319 Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Prelims
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(Predicted winners in bold)
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk
Jéssica Andrade vs. Loopy Godinez
Chase Hooper vs. Alexander Hernandez
Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose
Bryan Battle vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
