UFC 312 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
UFC 312 Predictions
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Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland Prediction
Dricus du Plessis seized the title from Sean Strickland a year ago via split-decision, and now after his successful defense against Israel Adesanya the two fighters clash for a second time in the evening’s main event.
The 31-year-old du Plessis’ unbeaten run in the UFC now extends to eight fights, which is no mean feat given that he’s by no means the most technically accomplished fighter around. He is a physically strong powerhouse though with an aggressive, pressure-heavy style and he packs a mean, explosive punch as well as being able to fire off surprisingly fast kicks at times. Generally his approach isn’t all that refined though, relying more on brute strength and toughness than slick technique and sound defense. A plus point for Du Plessis however is that he also blends in rugged wrestling and a capable submission game, though that again leans more on his strength than pure skill. It’s an energy-intensive style overall, but he does have a knack for being able to fight on even when he looks depleted.
The 33-year-old Strickland has a fairly one-dimensional approach, even trying to get DDP to agree not to attempt to take the fight to the mat this time around. Du Plessis quickly dismissed that idea, and that’s hardly surprising given that he managed to land six takedowns the last time they fought. His control time might have been limited, but it’s something he may pursue more this time around. It’s worth noting that Strickland can actually wrestle too, but knee damage from a motorcycle accident years ago has limited his ability to do so. And so these days Strickland’s game is almost solely composed of sound boxing fundamentals, with a heavy emphasis on his cultured jab and an occasional straight behind it, though he does also use push kicks too. Meanwhile, he also utilizes a well-honed ‘Philly shell’ defense that makes frequent use of shoulder rolls and parries. It’s a style that has it’s flaws in MMA, but works surprisingly well for him, and together with his durability, steely determination and effective cardio management has enabled him to gradually frustrated his opponents and wear them down as the fight goes on. And even the likes of Israel Adesanya, Nassourdine Imavov and Paulo Costa have found that to be a puzzle they couldn’t solve in the past couple of years.
In a sense these two fighters seem like overachievers given that DDP’s style feels too unrefined and Strickland’s too limited to make an extended run at the top of the division, yet here we are. I’d expect Strickland to find a good home for his jab here, but I don’t think he’ll offer up anything we didn’t see the last time they fought. And in the end it does feel like du Plessis simply has more ways to win. He’s the heavier-hitter of the two and that’ll enable him to deliver the more eye-catching offensive moments on the feet, while he’ll also have that major advantage of being the only one of the two that is willing and able to make use of his wrestling. And with that I think he’ll be able to do enough to earn another decision victory.
Prediction: Dricus du Plessis to win by decision.
Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez Prediction
Zhang Weili is on a four-fight winning streak that includes two successful defenses of her strawweight title as she now prepares to face the undefeated Tatiana Suarez, who has overcome many obstacles over the years to finally earn a title shot.
Zhang is an impressively well-rounded fighter who presents a serious threat wherever the fight goes. The 35-year-old continues to be in excellent physical condition, which enables her to constantly pressure her opponents, and she’s particularly active on the inside, doing a good job of mixing together her punches, kicks, knees and elbows, while also being very durable. Zhang also transitions smoothly to her powerful wrestling game, and once on the mat she’ll dish out very good ground-and-pound and work for submissions. The champion has a good finishing rate too, with 19 of her 26 career wins coming via either strikes or submission, and she’s only been finished once in her career.
From her earliest days in the UFC as a TUF Season 23 winner back in 2016, Suarez has stood out as having the skill-set to be a potential future champion. However, Suarez is also one of the most jinxed UFC fighters of all-time, and indeed even several years before her debut she’d already had to successfully win a battle against Thyroid cancer. That didn’t stop the former Olympic wrestling hopeful though, and neither did the many injury woes she’s suffered during her time in the UFC, including a three-and-a-half year long layoff. Regardless of all that, on the 7 occasions Suarez has fought in the promotion over the past 8+ years she’s continued to stand out, and most importantly maintained her unbeaten record too. So the now 34-year-old Suarez is very deserving of this opportunity, and with her elite-level wrestling ability, excellent grappling and mental toughness she presents a very real challenge to the current champion.
On the feet I’d expect Zhang to have a significant advantage here, and she certainly one-ups Saurez in terms of overall experience too, having had almost three times as many fights. Saurez also hasn’t fought since August of 2023, but we’ve seen in the past that she is typically not one who suffers too much from ring rust. And she’s also exceptionally good at using her wrestling to get the fight to the mat and controlling her opponent there. Doing so against Zhang is a big ask, but Suarez’s mix of physical strength and skill makes it a real possibility, and I think she can have some success in the early rounds. However, I do wonder how long she can maintain that in what will be her first ever five-round fight at 34-years-old, especially against a tireless all-round talent like Zhang. As such I think the champ fares better at keeping the fight upright as the rounds go on and wins the striking battle to retain her title.
Prediction: Zhang Weili to win by decision.
Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira Prediction
Justin Tafa’s four-fight unbeaten run came to an end in his only fight last year and now he’ll attempt to get back on track against the debuting Tallison Teixeira, who joined from the Contender Series last year.
The 31-year-old Tafa is a heavy-handed boxer who, despite his pudgy, bar-room brawler style build actually has fairly quick hands, will look for counter-strikes and can threaten with occasional head kicks. He’s finished all 7 of his career wins via strikes, but defensively he tends to lean on having a solid chin rather than keeping himself out of harm’s way. Meanwhile, he doesn’t have much of a ground game at all, though he is capable of dishing out heavy ground-and-pound.
The 25-year-old Teixeira has a completely different build from his opponent as he’s tall and lean, giving him a huge 7″ height and whopping 9″ reach advantage over Tafa. He’s 7-0 in his career to date and has stopped all his fights inside the distance, including 6 via strikes. It’s worth noting his only submission win was actually via an inverted triangle armbar in his first ever fight, and he does have a black belt in BJJ. He’s not really fought much in the way of notable opposition so far though, and despite his size he leaves his chin exposed and appears to be worryingly hittable.
With his age, size and seemingly broader skill-set, Teixeira could well be the pick to make here. However, I think Tafa is the type of fighter who will be able to eat some of Teixeira’s strikes while closing the distance in order to unleash his own heavier-handed blows, and the bigger man’s chin won’t be hard to find, leading him to a first round KO victory.
Prediction: Justin Tafa to win by KO in Rd1.
Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato Prediction
After taking time out from the sport after going winless in his last four fights, Jimmy Crute returns this weekend to fight former LFA champion Rodolfo Bellato, who claimed a TKO victory in his UFC debut over a year ago.
When Crute first arrived in the UFC he was a ruggedly aggressive fighter with a raw but respectable set of skills in most areas and appeared to have plenty of potential for development. He got off to a respectable start with four wins from his first five fights in the Octagon, but his progress seemed to be plateauing as he then headed into a slump in form that included two losses via strikes and a third via submission. Crute then withdrew from competing in July of 2023, curiously citing an “unhealthy obsession with the sport,” and is only now ready to return a month shy of his 29th birthday. Crute is a relatively solid striker, though he does overcommit on his strikes at times and isn’t as durable as he once was to make up for leaving gaps in his defense. He can change things up by going for takedowns and if he does get on top he is a threat via both ground-and-pound and submissions. Again he is capable of lapses on the mat hough and does have suffered a couple of submission defeats during his UFC run.
The recently turned 28-year-old Bellato has much better momentum than Crute heading into this fight in terms of results, but he too is coming off a long layoff, having spent over a year on the sidelines due to a severe kidney infection, and he also agreed to this match-up on only four weeks notice. Bellato is a big 205lb’er who will have an extra inch in height and 3″ in reach over Crute. He’s not a particularly slick or technical striker and can struggle defensively, but he pushes a good pace, has significant power and shows a lot of heart. He’s also able to work nicely from the clinch, can wrestle and has a solid grappling game.
Skill wise I think this fight is fairly well matched. Crute might well have the edge in the striking department, but I have doubts about his durability, as well as where he’s at mentally following his layoff as the pressure’s now back on him to prove he can shake off his losing streak. And with Bellato seeming to be the hungrier, more determined fighter at this stage with a knack for getting his hand raised, I’ll take him to earn a decision victory here.
Prediction: Rodolfo Bellato to win by decision.
Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado Prediction
Jake Matthews has spent the past four years alternating between wins and losses in the Octagon and now fights Francisco Prado, who is coming off a loss and is 1-2 overall in the UFC.
The 30-year-old Matthews arrived in the UFC over a decade ago as a promising youngster, but hasn’t been able to evolve enough to break out from being a steady, middle-of-the-road fighter in the promotion. On the feet he has solid boxing fundamentals and is quite durable, but he can be a bit overly-cautious at times which hinders his overall striking output. Matthews is also a competent wrestler and is comfortable passing guard, working for submissions and seeking out ground-and-pound opportunities, but he has also been tapped out a few times in the UFC.
Matthews has been in the Octagon long enough that he’s now fighting the next generation of up-and-comers like Prado, who is just 22-years-old. Prado will move up to 170lbs for this fight after being recommended to do so by the UFC’s Performance Institute, but while he’s similar in height to Matthews he will be at a 4″ reach disadvantage. Prado likes to apply pressure on the feet and has a good mix of speed and power, though technically and defensively he’s still a work-in-progress. All 12 of his wins have come inside the distance, split evenly between strikes and submissions, and his sole UFC win so far against Ottman Azaitar came via ground-and-pound after dropping him with a spinning elbow.
Prado is still developing from fight-to-fight, but there’s been no easy match-ups for him as he tries to learn on the job, and he’s fighting up a weight class here too. His youthful energy and pressure may be an advantage here, but I think Matthews experience and more polished fundamentals will see him through to a competitive decision win.
Prediction: Jake Matthews to win by decision.
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UFC 312 Prelims
(Predicted winners in bold)
Jack Jenkins vs. Gabriel Santos
Tom Nolan vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Wang Cong vs. Bruna Brasil
Colby Thicknesse vs. Aleksandre Topuria
Jonathan Micallef vs. Kevin Jousset
Rong Zhu vs. Kody Steele
Quillan Salkilld vs. Anshul Jubli
Park Hyun-sung vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
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