UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad Predictions

UFC 304 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Co-Op Live arena in Manchester, England and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC 304 Predictions

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Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad Prediction

Leon Edwards current 13-fight winning streak lasts over an eight-year period and on Saturday night he’ll be looking for his 3rd successful welterweight title defense against Belal Muhammad, whose own 10-fight unbeaten run was compiled over the past five-years.

These two previously fought in March of 2021 but the fight ended in a 2nd round no-contest ruling after an accidental eye-poke left Muhammad unable to continue. Edwards was ahead in the early action though after rocking Muhammad with a head kick and in general his punches also appeared to be cleaner and more impactful. That wasn’t unexpected as Edwards is a very sound technical striker with accurate straight punches, well-executed kicks, fast footwork and good fight IQ. He’s typically not a big finisher though, often fighting quite cautiously for someone with his ability. In fact, for a significant portion of his UFC run he was actually leaning quite heavily on his wrestling ability to grind out wins, which isn’t something you often hear about with UK fighters. That’s a testament to his well-rounded skills, and has meant he’s not been overly concerned about facing other notable wrestlers like Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington during his title run.

Muhammad is also a well-rounded fighter. He’s not the most eye-catching or clinical striker, but he has a knack for exceeding expectations on the feet thanks to his pressure-heavy style, pace, durability and cardio. On the downside he’s not known for his finishing power, but he will threaten with his frequent hooks and he has some sturdy kicks to the legs and body. Muhammad’s wrestling is a strong suit and it something he may well be wanting to pursue more this time around, while he did seem to be getting the better of the clinch battle in the early stages of their previous fight.

Edwards has only grown in confidence since they last fought and I think he’ll be looking to make the most of his striking advantage here. Muhammad will have learned from their last fight though and I’d expect him to apply more forward pressure this time around, look to work his wrestling more often and continue to try to find success in the clinch. Edwards is good enough in all areas to prevent Muhammad from just turning this into a purely grinding battle though, and in the striking exchanges I think his superior speed, accuracy, finesse and power will enable him to gain the upper-hand and win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Leon Edwards to win by decision.

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes Prediction

Tom Aspinall became the UFC’s interim heavyweight champion last time out and now puts the belt on the line against Curtis Blaydes, who he previously fought a couple of years ago in the UK. That fight lasted just 15 seconds though before Aspinall suffered a freak knee injury that left him unable to continue, resulting in the first TKO loss of his career.

The 31-year-old Aspinall’s rise to prominence has been no big surprise as he has many of the tools you’d hope to see from a title-worthy heavyweight. Despite being 6ft 5″ tall and close to the 266lb limit he’s still athletic and very light on his feet, has fast hands, big knockout power, a solid ground game and intelligent approach to fighting. His boxing is a plus point and he’s even trained with the Fury brothers in the past, with Tyson Fury believing he was good enough to be a pro-boxer. He’s comfortable mixing in kicks, knees and elbows into his attacks too though. He also trained wrestling from a young age which adds a welcome string to his bow, while he then eagerly pursued BJJ up to black belt level. So far it’s a skill-set that has served him very well, leading to a record filled with fast finishes. The downside is that means we’ve yet to see his defensive wrestling and jiu-jitsu fully tested, while he’s also never had to draw on his energy reserves beyond the 2nd round of a fight.

The 33-year-old Blaydes is also a fighter who benefits from not just being big, but also being athletic and having a fairly technical set of skills by heavyweight standards. Wrestling is Blaydes strongest suit and he can land powerful takedowns, has very good control on top and delivers damaging ground-and-pound. He doesn’t offer much off a submission threat though. Meanwhile, on the feet he’s fairly patient in his approach and doesn’t tend to go in for the kill, but he has solid boxing ability and good mobility too. Blaydes has had issues with heavy hitters in the past though, having been finished via strikes four times during his UFC run. A particular concern has been transitioning from striking to wrestling as he’s prone to being caught by heavy counters during his entries.

Aspinall’s defensive wrestling could really be put to the test here, but even if he’s taken down he will be able to work for potential submissions and sweeps. Meanwhile I do like Aspinall’s chances on the feet with his faster, more purposeful and potent offense, and he’s certainly sharp enough on the counter to give Blaydes a hard time closing the distance to execute his takedowns. As such I’m taking Aspinall to find a TKO finish here by the 2nd round.

Prediction: Tom Aspinall to win by TKO in Rd2.

Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction

Bobby Green earned a dominant decision win over Jim Miller at UFC 300 to hold the No.15 spot on the lightweight rankings and he’ll now take on Paddy Pimblett, who is undefeated in his five UFC fights so far.

Green is heading towards his 38th birthday in a few months time, but he’s still a crafty veteran who serves as a challenging gatekeeper for someone like Pimblett who is trying to break into the rankings. Green is a crafty, active and unorthodox boxer who will strike from unexpected angles with good speed and respectable power, makes use of the philly shell defense and will try to bait his opponents and land on the counter. He’s done a good job of making this style work for him, but he does rely on his quick reactions and having a good chin, which are two things that may now be starting to erode with time, having been KO’d twice and TKO’d once in the past couple of years. Meanwhile, Green also has quite good takedown defense and has proven to be tricky to submit on the mat.

The 29-year-old Pimblett has enjoyed an unbeaten run in the promotion, but the fact he’s only now getting to fight a ranked opponent perhaps after five wins tells it’s own story about the UFC’s cautious approach to nurturing this marketable UK star. He’s courageous on the feet with his offensive pressure and while he’ snot the most technical he does have genuine punching power in his hands. Meanwhile he’s also a decent wrestler and has a skillful grappling game that’s certainly his best asset and most likely route to a finish in his fights. Pimblett’s striking defense is a big concern though as he leaves his chin wide open to be hit and has been rocked several times in the UFC already, while he also struggled to get his ground game going effectively against Jared Gordon and has had questionable cardio at times.

There’s enough flaws in Pimblett’s game that any opponent in the top 15 would be difficult for him, and with his shrewd counter-striking ability and solid takedown defense Green certainly seems set to give ‘The Baddy’ his toughest test to date. Green will need to be careful though as Pimblett could catch him if he’s overly cocky or complacent on the feet and will be a threat on the mat. I think the Brit will to be too hittable for his own good though, enabling Green to land frequently and finish him by TKO by the midway point of the fight.

Prediction: Bobby Green to win by TKO in Rd2.

Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues Prediction

Christian Leroy Duncan is 10-1 in his MMA career to date, including winning three of his four UFC fights so far via TKO. Now he’ll take on Gregory Rodrigues, who has won four of his last five fights via strikes.

A former Cage Warriors champion, the 29-year-old Duncan is a talented, dynamic striker with creative flair. Duncan has a 79” wingspan, 4” more than his opponent, utilizes all 8 limbs effectively and strikes with both speed and power . He has a penchant for flashy techniques, with spinning attacks to the head and body and flying knees being unleashed effortlessly, while at close quarters he has nasty elbow strikes and uppercuts. To his credit he still maintains good accuracy despite not just sticking to the fundamentals, but there can be defensive holes left at times and he’s not as comfortable when he’s the one being put on the back foot. Still Duncan has never been finished in his 11-fight career to date and showed off some solid ground work lately too.

The 32-year-old Rodrigues has a very good ground game, being a credentialed BJJ player who also can wrestle too. However, ‘Robocop’ doesn’t use that as often as he probably should as he’s fallen in love with his knockout ability on the feet. And to be fair to him, his self-confidence in his striking ability is well founded given that five of his six UFC wins so far have come via strikes. He likes to put pressure on his opponents and is fast on the attack, but he’s a bit too willing to eat punches along the way and was KO’d on the Contender series a year before joining the UFC as well as being knocked out by Bruno Ferreira in January of last year.

This is a tricky one to call. If it stays on the feet then I think more often than not Duncan would emerge victorious, but with his pressure and punching power Rodrigues could also find a finish too. Meanwhile, I believe Rodrigues will have the skill advantage on the mat as he’s a very good grappler, though there’s no guarantee he uses it. He did go to the mat against Denis Tuiuliulin last year though, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt here and say that he does pursue the less risky avenue to success, leading him to a 2nd round submission victory.

Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues to win by submission in Rd2.

Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze Prediction

Arnold Allen went undefeated in his first 10 UFC fights, but back-to-back defeats since then have him looking to steady the ship on Saturday night. He’ll be going up against Giga Chikadze, who also started his UFC run strongly with seven wins in a row before suffering a loss, but he got back to winning ways last time out.

The 30-year-old Allen is a disciplined tactician on the feet with good boxing ability in particular along with a keen sense of range management and he cuts angles nicely when he goes on the attack. Allen is also a surprisingly solid wrestler, is comfortable controlling the action on top and does pick up the occasional submission win too. He’s also well conditioned and has never been finished in his career.

The 35-year-old Chikadze is a former Glory kickboxer turned MMA fighter whose striking talent is clear for all to see in the Octagon. His technique is excellent and he’s slick and crafty with his delivery. He has a versatile array of kicks and he may well find some success utilizing leg kicks against Allen, and meanwhile it’s not just his head kicks that are potential fight-enders as his body kicks are brutal too. Chikadze’s takedown defense is quite decent given that he’s a converted kickboxer, but it’s not impenetrable and he’s not got much to offer on the mat.

Allen’s striking is good enough that he doesn’t need to fear being on the feet against Chikadze for spells in this fight, but there’s no doubt his best chance of victory lies in making good use of his wrestling chops, and I think he fights intelligently enough to take advantage of that. A submission win could be possible later in the fight, but I’ll say he wins by decision.

Prediction: Arnold Allen to win by decision.