UFC On ESPN 65 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
UFC On ESPN 65 Predictions
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Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy Prediction
Josh Emmett hasn’t fought since a KO win over Bryce Mitchell in December of 2023, but now returns to fight in this weekend’s main event against the undefeated Lerone Murphy, whose 16-0-1 record includes seven victories and a draw in the Octagon.
Emmett, who turned 40 earlier this month, has had numerous injury woes over the course of his career and said he took 2024 off in order to try to let his body heal. When he’s healthy, the former 135lb interim title challenger is a fearsome foe thanks to the thunderous punching power he can generate, particularly with his overhand right, though there’s much versatility to his offense. He also has a very solid wrestling base that he perhaps doesn’t use offensively as often as he should, though he does use it well defensively to keep the action upright. he also has good conditioning and despite being injury-prone is still quite durable. With that being said, given his age and wear-and-tear it’s inevitable that signs of decline are going to creep in, and that can be difficult to disguise in the lighter weight classes, where speed and cardio are essential.
At 33-year-old, the athletic Murphy continues to be a physical specimen and uses that to get the best out of his technical boxing game, showcasing good speed and accuracy, while also delivering his kicks well too, together with well-timed knees at closer quarters. He is strategic in his approach and also has good cardio, which can lead to him working to outpoint opponents rather than just going for a big finish, as he did over five rounds to defeat Edson Barboza last year. Murphy is also willing to look for takedowns at times and will use ground-and-pound, but he doesn’t have a submission win on his record so far.
Emmett is always a threat due to the power he possesses, but Murphy is an assured striker with a 3″ height and reach advantage, is good defensively and I feel he’ll be able to keep the fight at his range and get the better of the striking exchanges to win rounds and emerge with a decision victory.
Prediction: Lerone Murphy to win by decision.
Pat Sabatini vs. Joanderson Brito Prediction
Pat Sabatini’s UFC career got off to a strong start with a four-fight winning streak, but he’s been alternating between wins and losses in his last four Octagon appearances. Now he’ll take on Joanderson Brito, who narrowly lost to William Gomis last time out, breaking his five-fight winning streak.
The 34-year-old Sabatini is very much a specialist who excels on the mat thanks to his dialled-in jiu-jitsu ability, with 12 of his 19 career wins coming via submission. He’s more vulnerable on the feet though and has been TKO’d early in the first round twice in his last four bouts. As such, Sabatini looks for takedown attempts early and often to get the fight into his comfort zone on the mat, and has has solid success in doing so, and also doesn’t mind being taken down.
The 30-year-old Brito is a well-rounded, athletic and aggressive fighter with strong finishing instincts wherever the fight goes, having ended 15 of his 17 career wins inside the distance via either strikes or submission. On the feet he has an energetic approach with quick hands and footwork together with solid power, but he can be a bit wild at times. Meanwhile he also has solid wrestling and is an assured grappler with a good choke series and can scramble well too.
Brito clearly has a major advantage on the feet here, and while he’ll have to be wary of Sabatini’s submission threat on the mat, he won’t be afraid to mix it up with him there if required. It’s more likely he tries to keep this one upright though, and with his speed and power Brito could well hand Sabatini another first round loss to strikes here.
Prediction: Joanderson Brito to win by TKO in Rd1
Cortavious Romious vs. Lee Chang-Ho Prediction
Cortavious Romious made it to the UFC via the Contender Series, but lost in his promotional debut, while Lee Chang-Ho was the bantamweight winner of ‘Road To UFC’ season 2.
The 31-year-old Romious first appeared on the Contender Series in 2023, but suffered a 29 second TKO loss, before getting another chance last year that went better with a win on the scorecards. Romious is short at 5ft 4″, but he’s a powerfully built, athletic fighter who leans on that on the feet with his speed and power-punching. He can get careless and look to just trade blows throw, which cost him in his first Contender fight, while his exertion can also wear on his cardio, but he does appear to be trying to pace himself better now. Romious actually only has a couple of wins via strikes, and is happier grappling, with six submission finishes to his name, and the last three of those all being by armbar. He can be too willing to continue to hunt for those opportunities off his back though, even if it’s not going his way.
The 30-year-old Lee is 10-1 in his career so far, though that record perhaps doesn’t tell the whole story as he’s had to dig deep to emerge victorious at times. He’s not much of a striker, instead preferring to press forward and get into the clinch, where he can work for takedowns. He uses his offensive wrestling nicely to keep control on top, has impactful ground-and-pound, and though he only has one submission on his record he is a capable grappler. Lee has had defensive struggles at times though, but he has good cardio and uses that to overcome opponents in the long run.
Neither fighter here as been overly impressive so far, but I think Lee’s conditioning and more grinding style and control on top will gradually enable him to edge ahead in this fight and emerge with a decision victory.
Prediction: Lee Chang-Ho to win by decision.
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Martin Buday Prediction
Kennedy Nzechukwu claimed two 1st round TKO victories after moving up to heavyweight last year and now goes up against Martin Buday, whose only fight in 2024 was a split-decision win over Andrei Arlovski.
While he’s fought often at 205lbs, the 32-year-old Nzechukwu stands 6ft 5″ tall with a vast 83″ reach, so his frame is well suited to heavyweight. As such he’ll enjoy a 6″ reach advantage over Buday here, though he will likely be in excess of 20lbs lighter. Nzechuwku isn’t the most technical striker, but he’s still decent enough by heavyweight standards and is willing to make use of his jab. And he’s clearly proven that he’s carried his knockout power up in weight with him so far while extending his number of finishes via strikes to 10 from 14 career wins. Nzechukwu can also mix in some ok wrestling and ground-and-pound to give his opponents a different look and had reasonable cardio at light-heavyweight.
The 33-year-old Buday holds a 14-2 career record overall and is 5-1 since joining the UFC from the Contender Series. He’s generally been fighting the also-rans of the weight class so far though, and hasn’t been overly impressive in the process, with the frequent finishes from his run in the regional circuit having dried up. Instead, four his wins in the Octagon have come on the scorecards, and two of those only by split-decision. That speaks to his steady, but unspectacular style that lacks in speed and power, but benefits from staying active and applying pressure with basic striking combinations, while leaning on his durability and grinding clinch-work over the course of three rounds.
Nzechukwu’s form was quite up and down at 205lbs, so it’s hard to be overly confident in him against a fighter like Buday who doesn’t particularly stand out, but is generally quite consistent. Still, Nzechukwu will be the faster of the two and with his power advantage I’ll take him to win by 2nd round TKO.
Prediction: Kennedy Nzechukwu to win by TKO in Rd2.
Brad Tavares vs. Gerald Meerschaert Prediction
Two veteran campaigners clash here at a time when Brad Tavares is going through a tough time with four losses in his last five fights, while Gerald Meerschaert has gone 2-3 in his last five appearances.
For many of his almost 15 years in the promotion the 37-year-old Tavares has been a dependably solid presence in the middleweight ranks who has put together a couple of nice winning streaks thanks to sticking rigidly to solid kickboxing fundamentals and making liberal use of the jab, while also having good cardio, and reliable takedown defense. However, he’s suffered from a real lack of finishing power and having no killer instinct, resulting in just two wins inside the distance from 15 victories in the Octagon. And now he’s reached an age where he’s starting to slow down a bit and not be as durable, including suffering two TKO losses during his recent slump in form.
Meershaert is also 37, though it doesn’t feel like it’s his age that’s led to his mixed results lately as he’s always been a fighter whose form has always been quite patchy in the UFC, having gone 12-10 over the past 9 years. Realistically the cracks should be beginning to show though as his career stretches back 18 years in total, amassing a total of 55 fights along the way. He’s lasted this long not by being the fastest, hardest-hitting or most durable fighter, but instead by being a crafty veteran who likes to keep his distance on the feet behind kicks and when closed down does a good job of timing takedowns in order to make use of his solid jiu-jitsu game and battle-tested submission prowess that’s racked up 29 finishes from 37 career victories.
Despite showing signs of fading lately I think that stylistically this match-up suits Tavares as he’s the better striker of the two and isn’t facing an opponent where speed or power is going to be a concern. And while Meerschaert is always a threat on the mat, I think he’ll struggle to get Tavares down as his opponent doesn’t rush in to strike and prefers to operate more cautiously from distance. So I’ll take Tavares to get the better of a largely forgettable striking contest from range to win on the scorecards.
Prediction: Brad Tavares to win by decision.
Torrez Finney vs. Robert Valentin Prediction
Torrez Finney arrives in the UFC after having to notch up three wins on the Contender Series that took his record to 10-0. Now he’ll make his debut against Robert Valentin, who suffered a TKO loss in his first Octagon appearance last summer, leaving him with a 10-4 record.
The 26-year-old Finney is a short, stocky and very muscular middleweight who isn’t the most refined technically, but has explosive speed and power on the feet, as well as the strength to force fights to the mat with his wrestling, and dishing out bludgeoning ground-and-pound when on top. 7 of his 10 wins so far have come by strikes, but he has also won on the scorecards a couple of times, including his first Contender Series bout.
The 30-year-old Valentin has a contrasting build compared to Finney, being tall and lean at 6ft 2″, but though that gives him a major 7″ height advantage, he actually only has an extra couple of inches in reach due to his opponent’s unusual dimensions. Valentin lack some basic striking fundamentals and so has an awkward style that tends to focus on kicks and spinning attacks. That’s not his main focus though as he will attempt to use his wrestling to get the fight to the mat and is certainly a threat with his grappling, having six submission wins on his record as well as respectable ground-and-pound.
Finney is at a clear size disadvantage here, but he’s fast enough to close the distance well and hits harder, while I think he’s the more powerful wrestler of the two. He’ll have to be wary of Valentin’s submissions on the mat, but I think he’ll manage to emerge from this one with a decision victory.
Prediction: Torrez Finney to win by decision.
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Diana Belbiţă vs. Dione Barbosa
Rhys McKee vs. Daniel Frunza
Loma Lookboonmee vs. Istela Nunes
Victor Henry vs. Pedro Falcão
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