UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett Predictions

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC 324 Predictions

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Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction

Justin Gaethje previously won the interim lightweight title back in 2020 and is now looking to do so again when he goes up against Paddy Pimblett, who is a perfect 7-0 in the UFC so far.

The 31-year-old Pimblett has done better than many people had anticipated in the UFC.  In the latter stages of his Cage Warriors run he’d picked up the occasional loss, and his bad habit of leaving his chin wide open led to him being rocked in his early trips to the Octagon. However, he’s managed to stay on the winning path in the UFC, proving to have a good chin and a knack for fighting through adversity.  And with his solid punching power and effective submission game he’s proven to be a genuine finishing threat too. The caveat however is that his level of opposition in the Octagon feels quite padded out for an interim title contender, with his most notable wins coming against clearly declining veterans like Tony Ferguson, King Green and most recently Michael Chandler. To be fair though, Pimblett has shown signs of genuine improvement though, with better structure to his stand-up defense and more refined offensive weapons too, but it remains to be seen if his wilder brawling instincts come back to the fore if things aren’t going his way.

Heading into this fight the word is that the 37-year-old Gaethje might hang up his gloves if he doesn’t emerge victorious on Saturday night. It’s never a great sign when a fighter is thinking that way prior to a big fight, but it is understandable when you consider that Gaethje has been in nothing but wars for much of his career. Even before he joined the UFC in 2017 he was known as an all-action wild-man who was willing to eat punches to land his own, and so it’s remarkable that his chin hasn’t completely deserted him by now, and that he’s still consistently able to mix it up with the best the division has to offer. His infamous last second KO loss to Max Holloway in 2024 was a reminder that he’s not indestructible though, and so it’s sensible that he’s weighing up how much longer he wants to keep going. As things stand though Gaethje is still a worthy contender for the interim title, and undoubtedly Pimblett’s toughest opponent to date. He’s not quite as aggressive and reckless as he once was, but ‘The Highlight’ is still tough as nails, and with his mix of high-volume offense, thunderous knockout punching power and punishing kicks, he’s a big threat to Pimblett on the feet. Gaethje will have to be wary of Pimblett’s assured grappling ability though, particularly as two of his last three defeats have been by submission.

This has all the makings of a very entertaining fight and it really could go either way. If it just turns into a slug-fest then I do favor Gaethje though, but I feel it’s Pimblett’ advantage on the mat that will be the difference-maker in this fight. It’s always been his strongest suit, and so whether he game-plans to pursue takedowns early in the fight, or switches things up on the fly if he’s coming off second-best on the feet, I think Pimblett can secure a 2^nd round submission finish to win the interim title.

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Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong Prediction

Former bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley is coming off back-to-back defeats against Merab Dvalishvili, but with his nemesis having since lost the title to Petr Yan, he now sees a new path back to the belt. However, standing in his way is Song Yadong, who has won three of his last four fights.

Dvalishvili’s wrestling prowess always made him a bad stylistic match-up for the striking-orientated O’Malley, but that aside he’s only ever lost once in his 22-fight career. A razor-sharp striking technician, the 31-year-old O’Malley’s blend of speed, timing and accuracy enables him to be a calculated sniper in the Octagon, though he can also opt to just drown his opponents with volume too. 6 of his 10 UFC wins have come via strikes, while he’s been able to best the likes of Petr Yan and Marlon Vera over five rounds too. Meanwhile, though he wasn’t able to stop Dvalishvili from taking him down, O’Malley’s takedown defense and get-up game is still respectable against most others he comes up against.

The 28-year-old Yadong has put together a very solid 11-3-1 record since joining the UFC at a young age back in 2017 and has claimed some big scalps along the way, beating the likes of Henry Cejudo, Marlon Vera, Ricky Simon and Marlon Moraes. Yadong’s speed and athleticism is complemented by his solid technical ability. He’s a crisp boxer who can generate good power, adds kicks into his attacks nicely and does a nice job of maintaining his energy levels from start to finish while also staying mindful of his defense. He’s content to keep the fight upright, but can also add in the occasional takedown and scramble to his feet if taken down.

This is a well-matched fight that should lead to competitive striking exchanges, but I do feel that while Yadong is very good, O’Malley is the more gifted technician on the feet, and his instinctual ability to consistently land the right strike at the right time that will give him the edge here over three rounds to win by decision.

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Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis Prediction

Waldo Cortes-Acosta has won 7 of his last 8 fights in the UFC and now goes up against ‘The Black Beast’ Derrick Lewis, who is coming off back-to-back TKO victories.

A former baseball player who turned to MMA 10 years ago, the 34-year-old Cortes-Acosta will actually be fighting for the 6th time in the space of a year on Saturday night. Cortes-Acosta has a fairly stripped down but effective boxing-based skill-set that’s primarily built off his solid jab, good footwork and dependable durability. And for a time he was willing to stick fairly rigidly to the fundamentals and just look to outpoint his opponents, including the likes of Sergei Spivac and Andrei Arlovski. However, more recently he’s starting to sit down more on his punches and go for the finish, resulting in back-to-back 1st round KO finishes over Ante Delija and Shamil Gaziev that have set him up for a big 2026.

A couple of KO finishes won’t scare off ‘The Black Beast’ Lewis though, as he’s the official king of knockouts in the Octagon after racking up a record 16 finishes via strikes over the years. However, while Lewis is proving the old adage that power is the last thing to go, he is really starting to get up there in age now, just a couple of weeks away from his 41st birthday. And over the past few years he has had his fair share of defeats, having only gone 3-4 since a good run of form led him to fight for the interim heavyweight title in 2021. He still only needs one big punch to end any opponent’s night though, can cover the ground quicker than you’d expect and continues to be dangerous all-fight long, even though his cardio is always a cause for concern.

Anything can happen when Lewis steps into the Octagon, but I like Cortes-Acosta’s chances here as he has shown he has the power to trouble the veteran’s chin, but can operate methodically with patience and solid cardio when required too, and I think that latter strategy will lead him to a decision victory here.

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Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas Prediction

Natalia Silva has won all 7 of her UFC fights so far and now goes up against former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas who has so far experienced mixed results up at flyweight, going 3-2.

Silva sits right on the verge of 125lb title contention after a unanimous decision win over Alexa Grasso last time out took her to No.2 in the rankings. She’s a well-rounded fighter with good speed and footwork. She punches well, but is particularly adept with her kicking game, and even has a couple of finishes via head kick and spinning back kick during her time in the Octagon. Those are outliers though given that her other five wins in the UFC were on the scorecards, but it’s also worth noting that she actually had actually won six fights in a row via submission just prior to joining the UFC, and has capable wrestling too.

At her peak in the 115lb division Namajunas was an elite fighter with a very polished, calculated and precise striking game, together with being a skilled grappler, enabling her to get the better of other top-level stars like Weili Zhang and Joanna Jedrzejczyk, both of whom she defeated twice. There were some bumps along the way though as her defensive wrestling was an issue at times and she often appeared to be fighting a mental battle as much as a physical one, which even led to her considering retirement while still in her prime. A fresh challenge up at flyweight initially seemed to reignite her desire to compete, but while she has earned a few wins along the way, it feels like some of the old spark has been missing from her performances. She is still technically sound and well conditioned, but fights more cautiously than in the past and without some of the desire and determination seen in the past, while she also doesn’t have much of a physical presence in the division.

Namajunas’ skill-set and past accomplishments mean she can never be completely ruled out, but Silva is a respectable talent in her own right and seems to be more hungry, determined and purposeful in her approach, which I think will enable her to get the edge in the striking exchanges to claim a decision win.

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Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva Prediction

After a year-and-a-half injury layoff, Arnold Allen returns to action in the main card opener against Jean Silva, who made a big impression during his initial five-fight winning streak in the Octagon before being TKO’d by Diego Lopes last time out.

Back in 2022, Allen was on a 10-fight winning streak in the UFC’s 145lb division, but then suffered back-to-back defeats against Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev. He did rebound with a win over Giga Chikadze after that, but a shoulder injury has stopped him from building any momentum since. The 31-year-old Allen is a disciplined striker with crisp boxing and good distance management, picking his shots patiently, while cutting angles nicely. He’s generally not considered to be a big finisher, but one uncharacteristically aggressive performance back in 2022 saw him TKO Dan Hooker with a relentless onslaught of strikes within half a round. Arnold is also a surprisingly capable wrestler for a UK-based fighter when he chooses to use it, and is well-conditioned.

The 29-year-old Silva has been one of the most consistently exciting and entertaining fighters in the Octagon over the last couple of years. He’s an excellent striker who possesses both speed and power, and accentuates that with his impressive sense of timing and ability to read his opponents intentions whether at range or close quarters. That’s led him to 12 finishes via strikes from 16 career wins so far, and while he prefers to strike he does have 3 submission victories too. Silva’s supreme confidence and over-enthusiastic, forward-pressing approach has always felt like a potential risk in his game though, and sure enough a heavy-handed opponent like Diego Lopes was able to punish him for that last time out. It’ll be interesting to see if he makes any adjustments after that setback, or if he continues to embrace is wilder instincts given how often that has paid off for him in the past.

Despite Silva’s loss he still feels like a major threat in the division, and he’s not going to give Allen much time to settle back into the Octagon after his long layoff. Allen has the tools to try to play matador to the bull here, but I think Silva’s speed, constant pressure and potent offense will lead to him having the bigger moments in the fight to win by decision.

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UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett Prelims

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(Predicted winners in bold)

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Ateba Gautier vs. Andrey Pulyaev
Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas
Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson
Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez
Josh Hokit vs. Denzel Freeman
Ricky Turcios vs. Cameron Smotherman
Adam Fugitt vs. Ty Miller