UFC On ESPN 66 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the T-Mobile Arena in Kansas City, Missouri and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
UFC On ESPN 66 Predictions
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Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates Prediction
This main event match-up was put together on only four weeks notice and sees Ian Machado Garry back in action after having his undefeated record broken by Shavkat Rakhmonov in a title elimination fight late last year. Now Garry squares up to the in-form Carlos Prates, who has won all four of his UFC bouts by knockout.
There was no shame in the 27-year-old Garry losing to a stand-out talent like Rakhmonov, and to his credit he became the first fighter to take the 19-0 ace to the scorecards. It also gave Garry an opportunity to show that his takedown defense is on point, while on the occasions he was taken down by the talented wrestler and grappler he was able to survive, and even threatened with submission attempts. And of course we were already well aware that Garry is a skilled striker with assured kickboxing technique who delivers accurate punches and agile kicks from range, stays sound defensively and has good footwork and cardio too. Garry can finish fights on the feet, though these days he’s more likely to stay composed and look to outstrike opponents over three or five rounds.
The 31-year-old Prates is an experienced striker who in addition to a 21-6 MMA record also has an extensive background in muay thai competition, including having had numerous bouts in Thailand over the years. Prates time in MMA didn’t get off to a good start, only mustering a 7-5 record to begin with, including three submission losses, but in the eight years since he’s won 14 out of 15 fights, including four in the UFC so far. And his finishing rate has been impressive, with only one of his victories during that time being via decision. Prates is 2″ shorter than Garry, but he actually has a 4″ reach advantage. He’s also athletic and does a good job of balancing power and precision in his strikes, and all eight of his limbs being potential fight-enders. Prates also has good takedown defense to help keep the fight where he wants it.
Prates is certainly the more potent and aggressive finisher of the two here, but Garry has never been stopped inside the distance and his more measured pace, technique and fight IQ make him well equipped to best opponents over the full five rounds. Given that Garry also has the advantage on the mat in this fight I lean towards him gradually getting the better of a close battle over 25 minutes to earn a decision victory.
Prediction: Ian Machado Garry to win by decision.
Anthony Smith vs. Mingyang Zhang Prediction
Coming off two losses in a row, Anthony Smith now heads into the final fight of his career against Mingyang Zhang, who has won both of his UFC bouts so far.
Smith is 36-years-old but he’s got a ton of miles on the clock at this point, having been fighting for 17 years and preparing to step into the cage for the 60th time in his career. And it’s been something of a rollercoaster ride along the way for ‘Lionheart’, as while he has 38 wins to his name and once fought for the UFC’s 205lb title, he’s also been finished via strikes a troubling 12 times, including in his last fight. And that’s not to mention his numerous injuries and ailments he’s suffered over the years. As such it’s been clear to see a decline in his performances in recent times and so it seems like a sensible decision to be getting ready to hang up his gloves. Despite all that Smith is still clinging by his finger-tips to the No.15 spot on the 205lb rankings and that serves as a reminder that on his day he can still be a significant threat as he’s a well-rounded fighter who has good muay thai striking ability, ok wrestling and proven submission skill. And when combined that’s led to an Impressive 35 of his 38 career victories having come inside the distance by either strikes or submission. Smith is also a gutsy fighter who will do his best to fight on through the pain barrier, but clearly he is battle-worn at this stage and can be finished, while his defense against leg-kicks is also a vulnerability.
Like Smith, the 26-year-old Zhang has a strong finishing record, with all l8 of his career victories ending inside of the first round. That could have been put down to the fact he’s been fighting on the Chinese regional circuit for a long time, but having also won a ‘Road To UFC’ quarter-final via first round KO and followed that up with a further two first round finishes via strikes since signing for the promotion, he’s clearly someone not someone to be taken lightly. Zhang isn’t as technically sound as Smith on the feet, but he’s aggressive and heavy-handed. He does often leave himself open to being hit in return though, and that’s cost him in the past, having been stopped via strikes three times. Zhang can also be a threat via submission, but has also been submitted himself a couple of times. That being said, Zhang’s currently unbeaten in his last 11 fights, dating back to the start of 2020.
Smith still has enough offensive weapons and stubborn toughness that he could pull one final big win out of the bag, particularly given how dubious Zhang can be defensively at times. Even so, I think physically Smith might be getting close to running on fumes at this point, so I’ll take Zhang to finish him in the first half of the fight before the veteran has a chance to drag him into deeper waters.
Prediction: Mingyang Zhang to win by TKO in Rd2.
Giga Chikadze vs. David Onama Prediction
Giga Chikadze lost his only fight last year and now returns to fight David Onama, who is on a three-fight winning streak.
A former Glory kickboxer with 50 fights under his belt in that discipline, Chikadze’s striking ability was clear for all to see as he went on a seven-fight winning streak after joining the UFC in 2019, including TKO finishes over 145lb stalwarts like Edson Barboza and Cub Swanson. However, Chikadze then suffered a decision loss to Calvin Kattar in early 2022 and has had injury woes since that mean he’s only fought two more times, picking up a win on the scorecards over Alex Caceres in 2023 and then a unanimous decision loss to Arnold Allen last year. That’s unfortunate as the now 36-year-old is a high-level technician on the feet, particularly with his dynamic, punishing kicks to all levels and good boxing. He also has reasonable takedown defense, but he doesn’t have a whole lot to offer on the mat.
The 30-year-old Onama is an athletic striker in his own right with good speed and explosive power in his hands, though he’s not as convincing defensively. Unlike Chikadze though, Onama is also a capable wrestler and grappler too with a few submission wins to his name. Onama’s takedown defense isn’t the best though and his cardio can let him down later on in his fights, but he’s never lost inside the distance.
Onama is the fresher fighter of the two at this stage in their careers, but Chikadze is still the more technical, crafty striker. However, Onama has a significant advantage beyond the stand-up game and I think he’ll mix in his wrestling and grappling to come away with a decision victory.
Prediction: David Onama to win by decision.
Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov Prediction
Michel Pereira’s eight-fight winning streak came to an end last time out with a TKO loss and now he’ll attempt to rebound against Abus Magomedov, who picked up back-to-back wins last year.
The 31-year-old Pereira is best known for being one of the most dynamic, creative and acrobatic strikers in the sport. Earlier in his career Pereira’s striking style looked like something out of a movie, continually attempting eye-catching techniques, preferably with some kind of flying, spinning or jumping included, making him highly entertaining to watch. However, though he earned a flying knee KO in his UFC debut, the problems with his high-energy, low-percentage offensive style soon caught up to him against more challenging opposition, taking a toll on his cardio and leaving him vulnerable when his offensive exploits didn’t pay off. To his credit Pereira managed to adapt, and in addition to showing an ability to reign in his wilder instincts and pace himself better, he also showed off a surprisingly solid wrestling game and capable grappling too, leading to a lengthy winning streak that carried on when he moved up from 170lbs to 185lbs. Last time out though he was tired out and overwhelmed on the mat by the also in-form Anthony Hernandez, leading to a 5th round TKO defeat.
The 34-year-old Magomedov has had a mixed 3-2 run in the promotion so far, though his two losses came in back-to-back fights against tough opponents in Sean Strickland and Caio Borralho, and he did give Strickland a decent run for his money early in their fight before fading in the second round, leading to a TKO defeat. Magomedov isn’t as athletic as Pereira, but he is a solid all-rounder. On the feet he has assured kickboxing fundamentals from range and respectable power, but doesn’t have the highest output. He will seek out wrestling opportunities though, is comfortable grappling and has a decent amount of submission wins on his record, including in his last Octagon appearance.
Pereira had a tough time of it against ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez, but there’s no shame in that and I don’t believe Magomedov is at that level or able to push the pace from start to finish in the same way. As such I think this is back to the kind of opponent that Pereira can be successful against and his superior striking ability will lead him to a 2nd round TKO finish.
Prediction: Michel Pereira to win by TKO in Rd2.
Randy Brown vs. Nicolas Dalby Prediction
Randy Brown’s three-fight winning streak came to an end late last year and he now moves on to fight Nicolas Dalby, who had been unbeaten in four bouts prior to his split-decision loss last summer.
The start of Brown’s run in the UFC delivered mixed results, but he’s since gone 7-3 in his last 10 Octagon appearances and beaten some respected veterans along the way. Brown benefits being big for the 170lb division at 6ft 3″ with a large wingspan, which will afford him an extra 4″ in height and 3.5″ in reach over Dalby on Saturday night. And that aids his rangey kickboxing style, using straight punches and lengthy kicks to help dictate the distance the fight is fought at, while he’ll also pose a threat via knees at close quarters. Brown has improved his ground game over time too and so can go for the occasional takedown and work back to his feet if taken down. He’s not immune to being finished though, as he’s been both KO’d twice and also submitted on two occasions as well during his time in the Octagon, though only one of those took place in the last five years.
Dalby is a 40-year-old war horse who gives everyone a hard-fought battle in the Octagon. He’s a solid all-rounder who uses both his iron will and granite chin to apply lots of pressure, fight through adversity when required and outwork his opponents over the course of the fight. A prime example of that came a couple of fights ago when he handed the previously undefeated Gabriel Bonfim a 2nd round TKO loss by weathering everything his opponent could throw at him and then turning the screw when his opponent ran out of steam. And given that he only lost to another tough opponent in Rinat Fakhretdinov by split-decision last time out to preserve his record of never having been stopped by either strikes or submissions, Dalby continues to defy expectations for a fighter at his age and stage.
This is a tricky match-up for Brown as Dalby will continually look to close the distance on him and is hard to deter. That being said, Brown does have the range-keeping tools on the feet to help keep him at bay with his solid jab and kicks, so I’ll take him to best the veteran on the scorecards.
Prediction: Randy Brown to win by decision.
Ikram Aliskerov vs. Andre Muniz Prediction
After back-to-back 1st round victories Ikram Aliskerov got a step-up in competition last year when he was handed a fight against Robert Whittaker, but lost by KO in the opening round. Now he’ll move on to fight Andre Muniz, who picked up a split-decision win in his last Octagon appearance.
Aside from the KO loss to former champ Whittaker, the 32-year-old Aliserkov’s only other defeat in his 17-fight career so far was to Khamzat Chimaev back in 2017 before they were in the UFC, which also saw him knocked out in the opening round. He comes from a decorated Sambo background and has a well-rounded skill-set. He’s physically strong and wrestles well, opening up opportunities for submissions. However, its been his striking that’s grabbed people’s attention in the UFC so far, having switched out Phil Hawes lights with a clean right hand in his debut and then set the wheels in motion for a TKO finish of Warlley Alves with a flying knee.
The 35-year-old Muniz went on a five-fight winning streak when he first joined the UFC, but suffered back-to-back defeats in 2023, before getting a split-decision win over Jun-Yung Park at the tail-end of that year. Unfortunately Muniz has been out for almost 18 months since then due to a mixture of injury and Visa issues. Muniz is best known for his skilled grappling ability that’s resulted in 15 submission wins from 24 career victories and even earned him a ‘submission of the year’ armbar finish against BJJ ace ‘Jacare’ Souza back in 2021. Muniz is a good sized middleweight who will throw with power when he’s on the feet, but striking isn’t his strong suit and he’s been finished by strikes five times in his career, so his main focus is to get the fight on the mat. It’s also worth noting that Muniz’s cardio can be questionable at times, which could be a concern given his long lay-off.
Stylistically this doesn’t seem like a great match-up for Muniz as though Aliskerov isn’t a world-beater, he’s much more of a threat on the feet, and is also very capable of holding his own on the mat too. He may well use his wrestling defensively to keep this fight upright, and as such I’ll take him to emerge with a 2nd round TKO finish.
Prediction: Ikram Aliskerov to win by TKO in Rd2.
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