UFC Fight Night 245 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, United States and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
UFC Fight Night 245 Predictions
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Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira Prediction
No.13 ranked middleweight Anthony Hernandez brings a five-fight winning streak into his fight against the No.14 placed Michel Pereira, whose own unbeaten run extends to eight fights, though five of his victories came at welterweight.
Hernandez will have just turned 31 by the time this fight takes place on Saturday night. He’s a fighter who tries to overwhelm his opponents by operating at a high-tempo regardless of where the fight goes. He’s a volume striker on the feet with good durability, but is often just using that to disguise his attempts to get the fight to the mat, which opens up opportunities to utilize his effective scrambling and submission-hunting ability that’s led to 8 of his 12 career victories, including three finishes during his current winning streak.
Pereira, who also reached 31-years-old this month, is best known for his exceptionally acrobatic, athletic and dynamic striking ability. And he’s been more capable of pulling off spectacular techniques and thrilling fans than just about anyone else, but at the UFC level his desire to repeatedly spam a dizzying variety of low-percentage moves like jumping and spinning kicks, flying knees, Showtime kicks and punches off the cage and back-flips into guard often didn’t pay off and just took a major toll on his cardio. To his credit after some losses in the Octagon Pereira opted to reinvent his game, applying a more reigned-in, technical approach on the feet, while also showing off better than expected wrestling ability and solid grappling too, and he now has a long unbeaten run across two weight classes to show for it.
It’s going to be interesting to see how this one plays out. Pereira seems better than ever up at 185lbs, but he hasn’t been facing particularly challenging opposition, and while his cardio management has now improved he’s never gone five rounds before. Meanwhile, Hernandez will be at a striking and athleticism disadvantage, but he’s a tough customer with proven submission ability who will likely have the better energy levels in the later rounds. I’m torn on the pick, but I’ll say Pereira starts to get more careless as tiredness sets in from the high pace his opponent is pushing, enabling Hernandez to seize on a fourth round submission finish.
Prediction: Anthony Hernandez to win by submission in Rd4.
Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips Prediction
Rob Font has gone just 1-4 in his last five fights, so a win will be a must for him in the co-main event when he takes on Kyler Phillips, who by way of contrast has gone 4-1 in his last five outings.
Font’s losing slump coincides with him getting up there in years as he’s now 37, but his last four losses could be at least partially explained by the quality of his opposition. And he still managed to take Jose Aldo, Marlon Vera, Cory Sandhagen and Deiveson Figueiredo to the judges scorecards in each of those losses, and continues to have never been beaten by strikes and only been submitted once in his 28-fight career. Font remains a good boxer who stays active playing off his well-versed jab and has quick hands. He is capable of the occasional finish, but he’s not really a one-punch finisher and is more effective in doing damage over time. Meanwhile, Font can wrestle offensively to an extent, but is far less convincing defending takedowns, and while he’s hard to finish he can be outgrappled.
The 29-year-old Phillips is a fighter with a lot of potential, and it feels like we haven’t seen the best of him yet. He’s very athletic and his speed and movement certainly aid his volume striking, but also enable him to close the distance swiftly to go for takedowns. And some of his best work tends to be on the mat as he’s a good grappler, though he does only have a couple of submission wins on his record.
While Font’s recent opponent’s provide a good excuse for his losses I do feel like he’s still not been at his best of late, and with Phillips being in his prime and still with room for improvement I can see him finding success here, particularly with takedowns and control on top, leading him to a decision victory.
Prediction: Kyler Phillips to win by decision.
Charles Johnson vs. Su Madaerji Prediction
Both of these fighters come into this fight with 16-6 career records, but Charles Johnson is on a three-fight winning streak in the Octagon, while Su Mudaerji is coming off back-to-back submission losses.
The 33-year-old Johnson is only 5-4 overall in his UFC run so far, so he’s done well to get on a winning streak lately. Johnson has a background in track and field, and together with his athleticism and cardio he’s also big by flyweight standards at 5ft 9″. However, on this occasion he’ll only be an inch taller than his opponent, and actually gives up 2″ in reach. He prefers to strike and while he doesn’t particularly stand out skill-wise he has good speed, respectable power and is durable too, having never been finished in his career to date. It’ll be interesting to see whether he’ll be tempted to go for takedowns here and try to exploit Mudaerji’s submission issues, but I suspect that might just remain a back-up plan if things don’t go well on the feet.
The 28-year-old Mudaeriji is a striker with fast, accurate punches and dynamic kicks, leading him to an impressive 13 finishes via strikes from 16 career wins. That may flatter to deceive somewhat though given that they mostly came against weaker opposition at a regional level. Mudaeriji struggles to defend takedowns and his submission defense has become a major issue, and not only in his last couple of his fights as he’s now been submitted three times in the UFC, adding to a further three on the regional circuit.
There’s still some doubts about Mudaerji’s ability to stick around in the UFC heading into this one, and with Johnson being a fighter who is tough enough to force him into an extended battle in the striking department, while also potentially being able to trouble him on the mat, I’ll go for Johnson to emerge with the decision win here one way or another.
Prediction: Charles Johnson to win by decision.
Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda Prediction
Darren Elkins has alternated between wins and losses in his last four fights and will attempt to buck that trend when he fights Daniel Pineda, who is coming off back-to-back defeats.
This is a clash of grizzled veterans, with Elkins being 40, while Pineda is 39. Elkins style has always been to attempt to outlast opponents in gruelling fights and wars of attrition, and ‘The Damage’ has plenty of bloody battles and battle scars to prove it. Naturally that’s taken a toll on him physically and so he’s fighting less frequently now, and when he does compete he doesn’t seem to take a punch as well as he used to. He’s still all-heart though, can wear down opponents with his tenacious wrestling, and his grappling does provide a submission threat, while he’s also hard to tap out.
Pineda is not far off having 50 fights in his career, and that includes going 3-4 during his first run in the UFC over a decade ago, then returning late in his career to go 2-3 (+1nc) so far in his 2nd stint in the Octagon. Impressively, all 28 of Pineda’s career wins has come via finish, whether in the UFC or on the regional circuit. And the lion’s share of those have came courtesy of his grappling ability and varied submission arsenal, while he’s also a capable wrestler too. The ageing process tends to be kinder to those skill-sets, but on the feet, despite his willingness to engage, be aggressive and throw with power, he is starting to slow down and leaves openings to be hit.
Despite their age neither fighter here has lost their love of a good scrap, so this should be a fun one. I’m going with Pineda though as he’s certainly the more dangerous striker here and is good enough to be a menace on the mat too. It’s worth pointing out that Pineda has lost all 7 times he went to the scorecards, so Elkins might fancy that route to victory, but with his chin not being what it once it’s going to be tough to absorb what’s getting thrown at him here, so I’ll take Pineda to win by TKO in the 2nd round.
Prediction: Daniel Pineda to win by TKO In Rd2.
Matheus Nicolau vs. Asu Almabayev Prediction
Matheus Nicolau is coming off back-to-back KO losses as he now gets ready to lock horns with Asu Almabayev, who is on a three-fight winning run since joining the UFC.
The 31-year-old Nicolau’s recent losses were unexpected given that he’d began his 2nd UFC run with four wins in a row. Back-to-back KO defeats certainly rings some alarm bells though, and it’s worth noting his first stint in the UFC a few years prior ended after a head kick KO loss too. Chin issues aside, Nicolau is a good counter-striker who adopts a patient approach and has both speed and accuracy on his side when he does engage. He also has strong takedown defense and respectable grappling ability too.
The 30-year-old Almabayev is a well-rounded fighter who can engage on the feet when required, but really builds his game off fast and relentless wrestling that sees him land frequent takedowns over the course of a fight. And that pairs very well with the fact that on the mat he’s good at taking the back and is a big submission threat. Despite his recent losses Nicolau is still a notable step up in competition for Almabayev, who has a lot of experience, but not against high-level opposition.
Nicolau will be grateful that Almabayev isn’t a big one-punch KO artist, and the fact he has good takedown defense to try to keep this upright. That being said it’s hard to deal with Almabayev’s seemingly endless takedown attempts, and though I don’t see him getting a finish, I think he will find enough success on the mat here to emerge with a win on the scorecards.
Prediction: Asu Almabayev to win by decision.
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UFC Fight Night 245 Prelims
(Predicted winners in bold)
Brad Katona vs. Jean Matsumoto
Joselyne Edwards vs. Tamires Vidal
Jessica Penne vs. Elise Reed
Melissa Martinez vs. Alice Ardelean
Austen Lane vs. Robelis Despaigne
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