UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
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UFC 318 Predictions
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Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier Prediction
Max Holloway won the symbolic ‘BMF’ title in April of last year with an infamous last second KO of Justin Gaethje, but has since been KO’d by Ilia Topuria in a featherweight title challenge. Now he’ll look to defend his BMF belt at 155lbs in a trilogy fight against the retiring Dustin Poirier, who has beaten Holloway twice in the past and is now hoping to claim the BMF belt in what will be his retirement fight.
The 33-year-old Holloway heads into this fight knowing that Poirier has already bested him twice, having submitted him in the first round of his UFC debut all the way back in 2012 at 145lbs, and then beat him in a dominant decision victory up at 155lbs in 2019. That second loss was a particularly bitter pill for ‘Blessed’ to swallow given that he was still the long-reigning 145lb champ at the time and riding a 13-fight winning streak. It was also Holloway’s first UFC fight at lightweight and it was clear that he was at a significant power disadvantage during the fight as he was hurt multiple times during the fight. The result suggested that perhaps 155lbs wasn’t the right fit for Holloway, but his more recent KO victory over Gaethje in the division suggests otherwise and does add an extra layer of intrigue to this trilogy clash. Holloway remains one of the UFC’s premier striking technicians, capable of delivering an incredibly high, sustained output with his sharp, accurate and calculated boxing work to the head and body. And Holloway has improved since that last encounter with Poirier, adding a bit more power and better use of kicks, while importantly also being more sound defensively. Holloway also has very good takedown defense, but is less effective than Poirier on the mat.
The 36-year-old Poirier intends to call it a career after this fight, having been submitted by Islam Makhachev in his final lightweight title challenge last year. There has been mixed results for Poirier in recent years as he’d also been KO’d by Justin Gaethje in a previous attempt to win the ‘BMF’ belt in 2023, and he was submitted by Charles Oliveira in another title shot in late 2021. However, there was a submission win over Michael Chandler and KO victory against Benoit Saint Denis mixed in among those setbacks to serve as a reminder that while he’s no longer at the peak of his powers, he’s still a dangerous fighter. Poirier is a skilled, high-volume boxer with good power, smart tactical awareness in the heat of the battle and solid defense, while he’s also capable of operating at a high pace and staying composed when facing adversity. Poirier is also not afraid to go to the mat and does have a habit of jumping on guillotine submission attempts, even though he has a better track record of finishing with other kind of submissions. He can be outwrestled at times and isn’t immune to being submitted, but he generally does a good job of staying safe and scrambling back to his feet when required.
These two are fan favorites for a reason as they are both very high-level operators who have served up many thrillers in the Octagon over the years. So we should be treated to another high intensity striking battle here, and I do think we’ll see Poirier continuing to have the power advantage, while Holloway will attempt to make up for that with his high-volume combination work. I feel age is likely to be a bigger factor this time around though as Poirier’s durability isn’t quite what it once was, and I think Holloway will also have more of an edge in both speed and cardio too these days. I also feel the experience Holloway gained from their previous clash at lightweight, along with the subsequent Gaethje win, will lead to improvements this time around, and so I’m leaning towards ‘Blessed’ to get the better of the later rounds in particular here to win a hard-fought decision victory this time around.
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Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov Prediction
Paulo Costa suffered back-to-back defeats last year and now takes on Roman Kopylov who is coming off two wins.
The 34-year-old Costa is a fighter who hasn’t lived up to the potential he showed when he first burst onto the UFC scene finishing people left, right and center during his initial five-fight winning streak. A lackluster TKO loss in a title challenge against Israel Adesanyain 2020 marked the start of a slide that’s seen him lose four of his last five fights, and even his sole win against Luke Rockhold was a bizarre fight that did little to regain his damaged credibility. Costa is not a bad fighter nowadays, it feels like he’s no longer the killer he once was and at times is just going through the motions. He does still have solid boxing ability, heavy leg kicks and better cardio than you might expect, while his raw power was proven beyond doubt in the past, but it’s now been seven years since he last finished a fight.
The 33-year-old Kopylov’s hard-hitting kickboxing style has been paying dividends right the way through his career so far, with 12 of his 14 career wins coming via strikes. His punches are good, but his kicking game is an even bigger threat, as evidenced by his head kick TKO finish of Chris Curtis last time out, while he’s finished several opponents with body kicks too. He’s also proven to be durable, having never been stopped by strikes in his career to date, but he has been submitted a couple of times and so prefers to keep the fight upright.
With Costa there’s always that hesitation to completely rule him out as the physical tools and ability is still in there somewhere, but he just can’t be trusted to fully harness that, and with Koplyov being so dependable with his fast, active and impactful kickboxing I have to take him here to get the better of the striking action, though for a change he might have to settle for a win on the scorecards.
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Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez Prediction
Kevin Holland has already gone 2-1 in 2025 so far, and is back at it again on Saturday night against Daniel Rodriguez, who is coming off back-to-back wins.
We’re only five weeks removed from Holland’s last fight, which saw him on good form defeating Vicente Luque by a 2nd round brabo choke submission. While the 32-year-old’s defensive wrestling and get-up game has been much maligned over the years, that fight was a good reminder that he does actually have some capable offensive grappling chops, with that particular choke being a go-to move on the mat. Meanwhile, on the feet Holland’s size is an asset at 170lbs as the former middleweight stands 6ft 3″ tall with an 81″ reach, and that’ll afford him an extra 3″ in height and 7″ in reach over Rodriguez. Holland makes use of that by dishing out solid straight punches down the pipe and he has a versatile kicking arsenal, while at closer quarters his long limbs also come in handy via elbows and good knees. Holland’s commitment to fighting so frequently helps keep ring rust at bay, but there is also a risk of burn-out, and it doesn’t leave much room for technical development in-between fights to help break his recurring cycle of ‘win-some, lose-some’. Beyond that he’s also prone to poor decision making and losing focus at times in the Octagon.
The 38-year-old Rodriguez went through a disappointing spell not so long ago that saw him lose three fights in a row, despite having gone on a 7-1 run in the Octagon prior to that. He has since got back on track with two victories over other aging veterans, but it still feels like it’ll take a good performance on Saturday night to prove that he is still able to operate at the same level as he was a few years ago. Rodriguez is at his best as a hard-working striker who presses the action behind sturdy boxing fundamentals, building off the jab and working nicely to the head and body. Rodriguez tends to favor volume striking over raw power, looking to wear out his opponents as the rounds go on, or win on the scorecards. He’s also decently capable on the mat too, though it’s generally not his preferred option.
I do still harbor suspicions that Rodriguez is on the downwards slope at this stage in his career, and so while Holland can be his own worst enemy at times, I’ll take him to use his size and power advantage here to get the better of the striking battle over three rounds and win by decision.
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Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull Prediction
Dan Ige shook off back-to-back losses with a TKO victory last time out and now goes up against former Bellator two-division champion Patricio Pitbull, who was defeated in his Octagon debut a few months ago.
The 33-year-old Ige is a compact, durable boxer who prefers to engage with his opponent at close quarters, keeping them busy with his pressure and combination work to the head and body. He has solid power for the division with four of his last five UFC wins having been via strikes, and has also never been stopped in his career. Ige can also look to mix in takedowns at times, and he does have a few submission wins on his record, though it’s now been six years since the last one. Ige is always competitive, but he has tended to come up short more often than not against top-tier 145lber’s, and as such he’s actually only 5-7 in the past five years.
It’s unfortunate that the 38-year-old Pitbull didn’t have a chance to compete in the Octagon while he was still in his prime years, as 44 fights into a career that sees him hold the Bellator record for most wins in the promotion’s history (24) and most title fights (18), he does appear to be in decline. Even in the latter stages of his Bellator run he was starting to slow down, including suffering back-to-back defeats for the first time in 2023, and his UFC debut against Yair Rodriguez saw him struggle to step up the gears on his way to a comfortable decision loss. The short, stocky Pitbull is certainly better than that performance suggested, as at his best he’s a respected striker with smart counter-striking who generates a lot of power in his punches and has punishing low kicks too. Pitbull also transitions well to a strong wrestling game and has solid ground-and-pound to go along with his submission ability, which accounts for half of his 24 career finishes. At the present time though Pitbull certainly isn’t as fast or durable as he once was, and is also more hesitant than he used to be.
At their respective peaks there’s no doubt that Pitbull was the better fighter of the two here, regardless of where the fight went. However, If Pitbull fights the way he did last time out then this is going to be a tough match-up for him as Ige always brings the fight to his opponent. As such, while it would be good to see Pitbull serve up a reminder of what he can do, I think it may well be that Ige just outworks him here to earn a decision victory.
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Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber Prediction
Michael Johnson won both his fights last year and now hopes to continue that momentum when he goes up against Daniel Zellhuber, whose own three-fight winning streak came to an end with a split-decision defeat last September.
Johnson had lost six of his previous eight fights and was coming off a KO loss heading into 2024, so his late-career uptick in form over the 12 months that followed was surprising. Perhaps it should have been expected though given that Johnson’s entire 14-year run in the UFC has been filled with continual ups and down, leading to a 15-15 run overall in the promotion. Now 39-years-old, Johnson is well past his prime and has a lot of miles on the clock, but he is still in good shape for his age, continues to be an assured boxer with solid footwork, and on his day is still capable of delivering the occasional KO finish. Long-held flaws remain though as he’s been very prone to losing by submission over the course of his career (9 times), and not helped by his poor decision-making at times.
Zellhuber is 13-years Johnson’s junior, having just turned 26-years-old earlier this month. He is coming off a loss, but given that he was competing on the main card of the Noche UFC event at The Sphere and only lost to Esteban Ribovics by a narrow split-decision verdict in a ‘Fight Of The Night’ war, it still feels like a positive experience overall. Zellhuber is very big by lightweight standards at 6ft 1″ with an 81″ reach, and that’ll be very evident on Saturday night where he’ll have 3″ in height and 8″ in reach over Johnson. Zellhuber makes good use of his well-versed boxing from range and mixes in kicks nicely too. He does have a habit of being drawn into more of a toe-to-toe battle though and becomes more hittable as a result, so it’ll be interesting to see if he’s able to learn from his mistakes in that regard. Zellhuber can also operate from the clinch and is an offensive threat on the mat too with his solid ground-and-pound and capable grappling.
Johnson may have found some form, but I think this is a challenging match-up for him at this stage, facing a considerably bigger, younger fighter who is talented enough to outstrike him, and with the veteran not being as durable as he once was I can see him being TKO’d in the 2nd round here.
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier Prelims
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(Predicted winners in bold)
Kyler Phillips vs. Vinicius Oliveira
Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen
Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
Ateba Abega Gautier vs. Robert Valentin
Adam Fugitt vs. Islam Dulatov
Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio
Ryan Spann vs. Łukasz Brzeski
Brunno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey
Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari
