UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 292: Moicano vs. Nolan takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan Prediction

Renato Moicano beat Chris Duncan by submission back in April and now headlines another Fight Night card against Tom Nolan, who is on a five-fight winning streak.

It’s been a rollercoaster ride over the past few years for the 37-year-old Moicano, who unearthed new-found popularity during a four-fight winning streak between 2022-2024, before being unexpectedly handled a lightweight title shot on just 24 hours notice against Islam Makhachev in early 2025. He lost that by 1st round submission and then also dropped a decision to Beneil Dariush, but his last win over Duncan helped get him back on track. Moicano has a seasoned mix of striking and grappling that’s earned him some notable wins over the years. He tends to be at his best when he can use his capable takedowns to set-up his good jiu-jitsu game, where he’s able to take the back well and has a reliable rear-naked choke that’s secured 11 submission wins to date. On the feet Moicano lacks finishing power, but he has good technical fundamentals, working his punches and kicks off an efficient jab. Moicano’s chin appeared to be a concern all the way back in 2019-2020 when he was stopped three times via strikes, but to his credit that’s not been an issue since. He can however occasionally come off second-best against top-tier grapplers though and doesn’t have the strongest takedown defense.

The 26-year-old Nolan arrived in the UFC after KO’ing Bogdan Grad on the Contender Series back in 2023, but was then TKO’d for the first time in his career just 63 seconds into his UFC debut. He’s since put that well into the rear view mirror though with a lengthy winning streak that’s culminated in his biggest win to date in June, when he ended Fares Ziam’s own winning streak by unanimous decision. Nolan is very tall for a lightweight at 6ft 2″, but though that’ll give him a 3″ height advantage here, it’ll only afford him an extra inch in reach. Nolan stays active with his striking from range and offers up a versatile range of kicks, while he also has good knee strikes at closer quarters and elbows too. Nolan can be hittable and doesn’t have much of a wrestling game, and while he’s an okay grappler he only has one submission win to show for it.

Nolan has the better power here and will be eager to test Moicano’s chin, but I think the Brazilian veteran is crafty enough to get this fight to the mat, where he’ll hold the advantage and eventually come away with a 2nd round submission finish.

Renato Moicano to win by submission in Rd2

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Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith Prediction

Randy Brown has suffered three losses in his last four fights and now faces the undefeated Jacobe Smith, who comes in on just over a week’s notice as a replacement for Carlos Leal.

The 36-year-old Brown has had his ups and downs in the Octagon, but his current slump over the past couple of years is disappointing given that he’d won seven of his previous eight bouts. Brown is a very tall, lanky welterweight and as such will hold a 5″ height and 6″ reach advantage over Smith on Saturday night. He utilizes his kickboxing from range and his punching power has helped him stop some hard-headed fighters over the years, while his kicks help keep opponents at bay and his knees can be a threat if they close the distance. Brown will also mix in occasional takedowns, has a few submission wins and is able to work back upright when taken down. However, he has lost three times to strikes and twice by submission in the Octagon.

The 30-year-old Smith is a perfect 13-0 in his career to date, with 11 finishes to his name. That includes an impressive four-fight winning run in the UFC so far that’s seen him stop each of his opponents, including three in the first round. Smith is a stand-out athlete with a high-level, powerful wrestling game and brutal ground-and-pound that can quickly overwhelm opponents. He’s also aggressive and heavy-handed on the feet, but he does lack technical finesse and leaves holes in his striking defense, while it remains to be seen how his cardio will hold up at the UFC level if he can’t find the quick finishes he’s used to.

It’s a bit risky to take on a fight against a veteran on such short notice, but Smith is a beast of a wrestler and I think he’ll be able to get Brown down and maul him on the mat to secure a 2nd round TKO finish.

Jacobe Smith to win by TKO in Rd2

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Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden Prediction

Ode Osbourne is in a tough spot after only picking up one win in his last six trips to the Octagon, but he’s not alone as Cody Durden has lost five of his last six bouts.

In total the 34-year-old Osbourne has only managed a 5-7 (+1nc) record in the Octagon so far. Having fought as high as featherweight in the past, Osbourne is a big flyweight, and while he’s same the height as Durden, he actually has a significant 6″ reach advantage. Osbourne will use that to dish out swift punches and kicks from range and has good power for the weight class, but he’s not the most active in terms of his overall output. Osbourne can wrestle too and will look for submission and ground-and-pound opportunities on the mat. However, Osbourne’s takedown and submission defense can be questionable and he’s been finished four times on the mat, while he can also leave his chin unprotected on the feet and has been KO’d twice in the 1^st round during his UFC run.

The 35-year-old Durden did okay in the first few years of his time in the Octagon, managing to go 5-2 (+1nc), but things have gone very badly over the last three years, losing seven out of nine bouts. That includes the first two losses via strikes of his career, as well as three submission defeats. Durden has never been a stand-out in any particular regard, being more of a workmanlike all-rounder with good cardio who likes to apply pressure with a mix of boxing fundamentals and wrestling, alongside an occasional submission threat. At first glance it can seem as if he’s a respectable finishing threat with 6 victories via strikes and 6 by submission from 18 career wins, but the reality is that all but one of those in each category came on the regional circuit.

So two flawed fighters potentially fighting for their UFC futures here. I think Osbourne will be the more dangerous of the two on the feet early, and with his speed and reach he could find a finish. However, if the fight goes longer I feel Durden’s better wrestling and cardio will enable him to gain the upper-hand, and so I’m taking him to earn him a much-needed decision win.

Cody Durden to win by decision

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Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos Prediction

Yana Santos and Luana Santos both come into this fight after compiling three-fight winning streaks in the bantamweight division.

At 36-years-old, Yana Santos (formerly Kunitskaya) is currently enjoying her best run of form in the UFC, including getting the better of Miesha Tate and Macy Chiasson in her last two bouts. Yana fights at a good pace with a taekwondo influenced striking style that enables her to be active and accurate from range, while at closer quarters she has a strong, hard-working clinch game. She doesn’t have the best takedown defense though, and while she is comfortable fighting off her back, she only has one submission win on her record. She also lacks a cutting edge on the feet, with all 7 of her career finishes via strikes having been years ago before she joined the UFC, and she has been TKO’d three times in the Octagon.

A decade younger than her opponent, the 26-year-old Luana Santos has a solid 6-1 record overall in the UFC so far, but is only now landing her first main card spot. Luana tends to have low-output striking as her primary focus is using her background in judo to get the fight to the mat, where she has good control on top and can threaten with a submission game that’s delivered five finishes to date (including two in the UFC). Luana is also hard to take down and has never been finished in her 13-fight career.

Yana doesn’t have the best takedown defense, and her usually reliable clinch-work may also prove to be less of a safe-zone given Luana’s judo base. With Yana also having a tendency to be content working off her back I can see Luana gaining long spells of control time on top here to secure a decision victory.

Luana Santos to win by decision

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Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov Prediction

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani has gone 2-0 in the UFC so far and now squares up against Farman Hasanov, who earned a unanimous decision victory in his promotional debut back in June.

Lebosnoyani has an intriguing background as his father was none-other than Royce Gracie’s striking coach during his legendary early UFC run. While Lebosnoyani wasn’t born at that stage, he did still grow up in that environment and was competing in BJJ competitions by the time he was just 5-years-old. After having an extensive grappling background, Lebosnoyani eventually went on to become an MMA fighter and had a lengthy run in the LFA promotion, before earning his spot on the UFC roster after a 68 second head kick KO victory on the Contender Series last year. The 27-year-old’s grappling continues to be a major asset and has provided five of his 11 career wins to date, but he’s a respectable striker too and can operate in the clinch too, while he also has solid takedown defense. Both of his losses to date have been by TKO though, which could point to a durability concern, though the last of those was over three years ago.

Hasanov also comes in via the LFA promotion, but though he’s older than Lebosnoyani at 31-years-old, he’s actually significantly less experienced with just a 5-0 career record. Hasanov is a physically strong, skilled wrestler who is capable of racking up multiple takedowns and has stifling top control. He’s not really a submission threat, but he does have solid ground-and-pound when he chooses to use it. Meanwhile, on the feet he’s a fairly basic striker, and so will just be looking to apply pressure to help set up his takedown attempts.

Lebosnoyani is the more experienced fighter here and has a more well-rounded set of skills. As such I’d expect him to get the better of the striking, while also being tricky to contain on the canvas if he is taken down. The longer the fight goes the more chance there is of him managing to snatch on a submission attempt, and so I’ll take him to find a late finish here.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani to win by submission in Rd3

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UFC Fight Night 292: Moicano vs. Nolan Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope
Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren
Julian Erosa vs. Lee Jeong-yeong
Nick Klein vs. Joseph Kropschot
Talita Alencar vs. Piera Rodriguez
Zachary Reese vs. Mickey Gall
Lucia Szabová vs. Tainara Lisboa

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MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

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