UFC On ESPN: Moreno vs. Erceg Predictions

UFC On ESPN 64 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico  and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC On ESPN 64 Predictions

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg Prediction

After a couple of split-decision losses, former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno got back to winning ways last time out and now fights Steve Erceg, who earned a title shot early in his UFC run, but has since lost twice.

The 31-year-old Moreno shook off any notion of being jaded last time out with a convincing decision win to end Amir Albazi’s five-fight winning streak. Moreno is a high-energy all-rounder who applies pressure well on the feet with his robust boxing ability and has developed improved power over time. The ex-champ can be hit, but he’s very durable and has never been stopped by strikes. Moreno transitions easily between striking and wrestling, while he’s also a well-versed grappler both offensively and defensively, with half of his 22 career wins coming via submission, while never having been tapped out himself. Moreno blends his skills well and has the conditioning to maintain his intensity from start to finish.

The 29-year-old Erceg impressed in his early UFC outings, demonstrating good composure, accuracy and distance management on the feet to back up an assured mix of wrestling and grappling on the mat.  He was able to produce frequent submission wins on the regional circuit, but he’s yet to deliver one in the Octagon. While Erceg quickly found himself in a title fight after only three Octagon appearances he didn’t look out of place in a competitive fight against Alexandre Pantoja, but a 1st round round TKO loss to Kai Kara-France last August was a blow and puts more pressure on his shoulders to get back to winning ways this weekend.

This should be a competitive fight wherever the action goes and it’ll be interesting to see how Erceg’s calm and calculated style works out against Moreno’s energy and tenacity. In the end, with the Mexican crowd behind him I favor the former champ Moreno to push a hard pace and battle his way to a submission win the championship rounds.

Prediction: Brandon Moreno to win by submission in Rd4.

Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober Prediction

Manuel Torres’ three-fight winning start to his time in the UFC came to an end via a TKO loss last time out and now he fights Drew Dober, who suffered back-to-back defeats last year.

The 30-year-old Torres opening round TKO loss back in September of last year preserved his record of having only fought beyond the 1st round once in his entire 15-3 career so far. That speaks to his aggressive, offensively-minded style, including on the feet, where he attacks in volume with a notable kicking game being backed up by his quick hands. Torres is also willing to take the fight to the mat in pursuit of a finish, with 7 of his wins coming by way of submission, though he has also been finished a couple of times by leg locks.

The 36-year-old Dober is also an action-orientated striker with good cardio who likes to apply a lot of forward pressure and throws his heavy hands with big power, which has resulted in his last seven UFC wins all coming via strikes. Dober tends to eat strikes to land his own, and in the past has had a reputation for having a very strong chin, but he did suffer a 1st round TKO loss to Matt Frevola a couple of years ago and was then TKO’d by Jean Silva last time out, although that was due to a nasty cut. Meanwhile, Dober’s takedown defense is poor and he’s been submitted four times during his UFC career.

This one really could go either way. Torres is hittable and Dober has the power to punish him for that, but the same is true the other way. There are signs that Dober is starting to fade a bit though and with Torres also having the advantage on the mat I’ll take him to have a back-and-forth battle in the first round, but then lock up a submission finish in the second.

Prediction:  Manuel Torres to win by submission in Rd2.

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer Prediction

Kelvin Gastelum won his only fight last year, a feat he’d only managed twice in his previous eight Octagon appearances. Next he’ll take on Joe Pyfer, who is 4-1 in the UFC so far and is coming off a KO win.

The 33-year-old Gastelum had tried to switch back down to welterweight in his last couple of fights, but suffered a dominant loss to Sean Brady and then in a flashback to yesteryear failed to make weight for his next fight against Daniel Rodriguez, which forced him back up to 185lbs. And middleweight has always been a bit of an awkward fit for him as while he’s stockily built he’s short and has a limited wingspan, resulting in a 5″ reach and 4″ reach disadvantage in this particular match-up. That being said, he’s proven to be very durable, and has still never been finished by strikes. Gastelum is also quite light on his feet, and while he’s not been a finisher in the division he does have respectable power. He also has good hand-speed, and that’s been important to help catch his opponents off-guard as otherwise his striking tends to stick to the fundamentals without too much in the way of creative flair.

Like Gastelum, the 28-year-old Pyfer isn’t the flashiest striker, but he has solid boxing and benefits from having big power in his hands that’s led to 9 finishes via strikes from 13 career victories, including an 85 second knockout of Marc Andre Barriault last time out. Pyfer also has solid offensive wrestling when he chooses to use it, and can grapple, which helped him pick up a submission win in the UFC.

Gastelum is tough as old boots, so it’s possible he might be able to withstand the larger, harder-hitting Pyfer’s punching power better. That being said, he still struggles to put together any kind of a run at 185lbs and isn’t getting any younger, so I think Pyfer will have the bigger moments in the striking exchanges here and emerge with a decision victory.

Prediction:  Joe Pyfer to win by decision.

Raul Rosas Jr vs. Vince Morales Prediction

Raul Rosas Jr comes in off a three-fight winning streak to fight Vince Morales, who has lost back-to-back bouts since returning to the UFC last year.

The youngest UFC fighter ever, Rosas is now 20-years-old and holds a 4-1 record in the promotion. He’s been handed favorable match-making so far as only seems fair for a still-developing young prospect. Rosas best weapon remains his strong grappling and ability to wrestle, with his natural physicality helping in that regard. He’s still getting to grips with becoming a more refined striker though, but there are signs of improvements. He also still needs to become more thoughtful and strategic with his pacing and aggression rather than just always going full-steam ahead as while its a brute-force approach that has worked for him at times, it’ll become more problematic as the quality of his opposition increases.

The 34-year-old Morales first landed in the UFC back in 2018, but was released after only managing to deliver a 3-5 run. After clocking up five wins elsewhere, Morales was given another chance in the Octagon, but his two losses so far leave him badly needing a win on Saturday night. Morales is a capable all-rounder offensively, showing off solid boxing with an emphasis on counter-striking with decent power, while he can also wrestle and he has good submission options on the mat. However, it can take Morales time to get going and dial in his striking, while he’s also less convincing defensively than offensively both on the feet and on the mat.

I think Rosas will benefit from being the faster starter here and his grappling is good enough to get the better of Morales on the mat, while holding his own on the feet when he has to in order to emerge with a decision victory.

Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr to win by decision.

David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira Prediction

Two Contender Series recruits collide here, with David Martinez set to make his UFC debut with an 11-1 career record, while Saimon Oliveira has gone winless in his first two Octagon appearances, taking his record to 18-5 overall.

The 26-year-old Martinez is an exciting talent with dangerous and dynamic muay thai striking that’s so far been responsible for stopping 9 of his 11 wins inside the distance. He has powerful punches, fast kicks and is able to smoothly blend in eye-catching techniques that aren’t just for show, as proven in his final Combate fight prior to arriving on the Contender Series, which ended via a spinning wheel kick. And it’s worth noting that for the second fight in a row his finish came in the 4th round, so he’s not just a fast starter who will burn himself out looking for a knockout. He also has good movement and respectable takedown defense, but we’ve not seen a whole lot of his ground game.

The 33-year-old Oliveira is in a tough spot as he’s yet to win in the UFC, is coming off a KO loss, and has been out of action for over two years. He’s not as potent or skilled a striker as Oliveira, but he does also have a muay thai style and is even more willing to throw out spinning attacks than Martinez, though he’s more reckless with his execution of them. Oliveira doesn’t have much of a wrestling game, but he is a threat in the grappling department, and that’s been his best avenue to victory in his career to date, with 11 of his 18 wins coming via submission.

Martinez has a distinct power, speed and skill advantage on the feet here, and though it could get more interesting if Oliveira could get the fight to the mat, his wrestling likely isn’t going to be good enough to make that happen.  Therefore I think it’s probably only a matter of time before Martinez finds a finish, and I’ll say he gets a TKO by the second round.

Prediction: David Martinez to win by TKO In Rd2.

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas Prediction

Ronaldo Rodriguez has won both his UFC fights so far and now finds himself in the main card opener against Kevin Borjas, who has suffered back-to-back defeats in the Octagon so far.

The 25-year-old Rodriguez is a fairly solid all-rounder with good conditioning who isn’t the most fleet of foot or active offensively, but can be effective with his pressure, counter-striking and solid punching power, while he’s durable too. Rodriguez can also mix things up on the mat with decent wrestling and a significant submission threat.

The 27-year-old Borjas likes to keep the fight upright and though he’s not as heavy-handed as Rodriguez, he offers up considerably more volume and found good success with that on the regional scene, with all eight of his wins there coming via strikes. Borjas doesn’t have much to offer beyond his striking though and that could prove to be problematic here.

If it just plays out purely on the feet then this fight could be somewhat competitive, but it’s hard not to see Rodriguez eventually opting to take advantage of his superior ground skills to bring Borjas down and hunt for a submission finish.

Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez to win by submission in Rd2.

UFC On ESPN 64 Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Édgar Cháirez vs. C.J. Vergara
José Daniel Medina vs. Ateba Abega Gautier
Christian Rodriguez vs. Melquizael Costa
Loopy Godinez vs. Julia Polastri
Rafa García vs. Vinc Pichel
Jamall Emmers vs. Gabriel Miranda
MarQuel Mederos vs. Austin Hubbard