UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh Predictions

UFC Fight Night 268: Moreno vs. Kavanagh takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC Fight Night 268 Predictions

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Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh Prediction

Brandon Moreno suffered his first ever TKO loss against Tatsuro Taira late last year. Now he faces a late replacement opponent in Lone’er Kavanagh, who steps in a few weeks notice after being KO’d in his last Octagon appearance.

It’s to the 32-year-old Moreno’s credit that it took until 33 fights into his career to finally experience a loss inside the distance, especially given all the wars he’s been in during his near decade-long run in the UFC. He’ll be hoping that was just a one-off though as he does relish utilizing his robust boxing to pressure behind the jab and engage in the pocket. Moreno will also use his wrestling to seek out takedown opportunities though, and has a proven grappling game that accounts for 11 of his 16 career finishes. And whether on the feet or on the mat he pushes a good pace and has dependable cardio over five rounds.

Like Moreno, the 26-year-old Kavanagh has just tasted defeat for the first time, although he’s much earlier in his career, with only 10 pro-fights to his name. Kavanagh is well regarded though after a solid run in the Cage Warriors promotion and he already has a couple of wins in the Octagon under his belt, but there’s no doubt this is a massive step up in competition for him. Kavanagh is a dynamic kickboxer who puts his striking combinations together well with very good speed and athleticism, and he’s notched up some eye-catching finishes. Last time out against Johnson he started brightly on the feet and was even willing to mix in some wrestling, but his cardio became compromised over time and his opponent’s pressure also became an issue, leading to a tough loss.

It’s a big ask for Kavanagh to come in off a KO loss to face a former champion on short-notice, but with his speed, movement and slick combinations he could have his moments on the feet here. Moreno is a battle-tested veteran though, and I think he’ll be able to leverage his stronger wrestling, grappling and conditioning to get the better of the younger man for a third round submission victory.

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Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez Prediction

Marlon Vera has lost four of his last five fights and will attempt to halt that slide when he goes up against David Martinez, who is 2-0 in the UFC so far.

Despite his current three-fight losing slump against other notable flyweight contenders like Sean O’Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo and most recently Aiemann Zahabi, the 33-year-old Vera has still never been finished in his career. Results haven’t been going his way like they were in the past though, and that’s at least partly down to the fact that he’s a fighter who often gets by on creating big moments out of thin-air, like his late head kick KO finishes against Frankie Edgar and Dominick Cruz. He can be a slow starter though and tends to eat strikes, so while his striking intensity increases as the fight goes on, if he can’t create that one bit of magic to close the show then he struggles to win on the scorecards. Vera could still get back on track though as some of his main flaws are fixable, and he does have a very respectable grappling threat to go along with his dangerous striking.

Heading into his third UFC fight the 27-year-old Martinez’ is already ranked No.10 at 135lbs and featuring in a co-main event for the 2nd time. Martinez arrived via the Contender Series in 2024, having already been a Combate champion, and he’s impressed so far in the Octagon with a 1st round TKO finish of Saimon Oliveira, followed by a unanimous decision win over veteran campaigner Rob Font last time out. Martinez will be at a 3″ height and reach disadvantage here, but he possesses a dynamic muay thai striking style that’ll see him unleash fast kicks and punches, while also having commendable accuracy when he mixes in flashier techniques. Martinez has 10 finishes via strikes from 13 career wins so far and has demonstrated solid takedown defense and good cardio, but we’ve yet to see much of his ground game.

Martinez showed against Font that he can cope with a step-up in competition, and I think with his swift, dynamic striking style he can get off to a good start here, and importantly has the conditioning to maintain that. It’d be interesting to see Vera look to test him on the mat, but I’m not convinced he will, so I’ll take Martinez to outstrike him and win by decision.

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Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green Prediction

Daniel Zellhuber comes in off back-to-back defeats to fight King Green, who managed to shake off a couple of defeats in December with a split-decision victory.

Zellhuber lost his UFC debut back in 2022, but then quickly hit his stride with three straight wins. A back-and-forth battle with Esteben Ribovics then ended in a split-decision loss, but came with a ‘Fight Of The Night’ bonus and a lot of respect. However, he’s now coming off a unanimous decision loss to grizzled veteran Michael Johnson that was more of a disappointment. The 26-year-old Zellhuber is big by lightweight standards and so will enjoy a 3″ height and 6″ reach advantage over Green this weekend. Zellhuber is a very capable boxer from range and mixes in good kicks too. He has the ability to be technical, but it doesn’t take much to draw him into trading toe-to-toe, where he’s prone to getting hit more than he should. So far he’s never been finished, but he has been hurt at times and was dropped by Johnson, indicating a need to tighten up defensively. Zellhuber can also work nicely from the clinch and has a capable ground game too.

13 years Zellhuber’s senior, the 39-year-old Green is still picking up the occasional win, but he’s also suffering some decisive losses too. In fact, over the past four years he’s gone 4-5 (+1nc), which includes being KO’d three times, TKO’d once and submitted too. The biggest problem for Green is that his style relies a lot on speed, timing and quick reactions to make effective use of his shoulder rolls, parries and counter-strikes from awkward angles, and at this stage he’s not quite as sharp as he used to be. With his durability also in decline that means he’s becoming more vulnerable, but he’s still a tricky fighter to deal with though due to his unorthodox style, and he’s generally able to stay fairly competitive on the mat too when he has to.

Zellhuber’s age, size advantage and toughness bode well for him in this fight, and with Green being more fragile these days I’ll take the younger man to deliver a 2^nd round TKO finish.

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Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes Prediction

Edgar Chairez has gone 2-2 (+1nc) in the UFC up to this point and now fights Felipe Bunes, who is 1-2 so far.

The 30-year-old Chairez first appeared on the UFC’s radar via the Contender Series back in 2022, and though he actually lost his fight he was still welcomed into the promotion a year later. His results so far has been a bit of a mixed bag, but look better when you consider his two losses were against the now 125lb champ Joshua Van, and next title contender Tatsuro Taira. He’s a good sized flyweight who doesn’t have the highest output on the feet, but is still aggressive, throwing his punches and kicks with bad intentions, while he likes spinning attacks too. He only has four finishes via strikes, but they’ve been notable ones, including by flying knee, spinning back elbow and body kick. Chairez isn’t much of a wrestler and can be taken down, but he welcomes that as he’s been a consistent threat on the mat in his career to date with 8 submission wins, including two 1st round stoppages in the UFC so far.

The 36-year-old Bunes hasn’t yet been able to find a solid footing in the UFC, and with a 14-8 career record still has to prove he belongs at this level. He’s similar to Chairez in several respects, though despite being a willing striker he’s generally not as dangerous there. He can wrestle a bit, but he’s at his best when he’s grappling, with nine submission finishes to his name, and is particularly adept at utilizing the armbar. However, like his opponent he’s not all that convincing defensively.

These two match up quite well and it could turn into a good back-and-forth battle, particularly on the mat where they both present a significant threat. I think Chairez has the edge overall though and so I’ll take him to win by submission in the 2nd round.

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Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas Prediction

Imanol Rodriguez is a new 6-0 recruit from the Contender Series, and gets a main card spot for his debut against Kevin Borjas, who has lost three of his fourth UFC bouts.

The 26-year-old Rodriguez doesn’t have a lot of experience, but he’s shown real promise on the regional scene. He’s a compact boxer with fast hands who puts together accurate combinations well, targeting the body as well as the head. He likes to throw his shots with power, and five of his six wins so far have come via punches. Meanwhile, his ground game isn’t a primary focus, but he’s shown some capability there too and does have a submission win on his record.

Borjas hasn’t had the best of runs in the UFC, but he’s still a capable fighter. He is at his best on the feet and uses his dependable cardio to push the pace and apply pressure with his volume-based boxing and good knee strikes. Borjas showed significant stopping power on the regional circuit, winning eight fights via strikes, but we’ve yet to see that continue since joining the UFC. Borjas is also durable, but that makes him a bit too willing to eat strikes for his own good.

This fight should serve up a competitive battle on the feet, but I do think Rodriguez is the quicker, crisper boxer and has better defense. Borjas isn’t easy to put away though, and with his pace and conditioning that could add a layer of intrigue in the later stages as Rodriguez has never gone beyond the 2nd round before. Still, I’ll take the newcomer to have done enough by then to ensure he emerges with a decision victory.

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Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco Prediction

Santiago Luna won his UFC debut via 1st round KO at ‘Noche UFC 3’ last year and now opens up Saturday night’s main card against Angel Pacheco, who lost his first fight in the promotion on the scorecards.

Luna, aka ‘Border Boy’ is now 7-0 for his career overall, with all of his wins coming inside the distance. He’s only 21-years-old, but has shown well-rounded skills so far, including having good power in his punches that has dropped several opponents, while he also has versatile takedowns and a knack for sinking in rear-naked chokes, accounting for four of his wins. Luna is clearly still a work-in-progress given his age though, and one point of concern for now would be a need to tighten up defensively.

Pacheco arrived in the UFC via the Contender Series back in 2023, but not in the usual fashion, as he actually lost his fight on the show by unanimous decision, but due to the exciting back-and-forth nature of it he was still given a contract. Unfortunately for him he went on to lose his UFC debut in 2024 and has been out of action for almost two years since then. Pacheco is 13-years-older than Luna at 34 and sets his stall out as an aggressive brawler with good power, which has led to five of his seven wins coming via strikes. He leans more on toughness than technique though, and while he’s never been finished he is very hittable.

It’s sensible that the UFC would be looking to give ‘Border Boy’ favorable match-making given how young he is, and that’s certainly seems to be the case here as he would appear to be better than Pacheco in most aspects.  As such I think he’ll have dished out enough damage by the 2nd round to earn a TKO finish.

UFC Fight Night 268 Prelims

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(Predicted winners in bold)

Ryan Gandra vs. José Daniel Medina
Ailín Pérez vs. Macy Chiasson
Cristian Quiñonez vs. Kris Moutinho
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes
Sofia Montenegro vs. Ernesta Kareckaitė
Erik Silva vs. Francis Marshall
Damian Pinas vs. Wesley Schultz