UFC On ESPN 59 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
UFC On ESPN 59 Predictions
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Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez Prediction
Coming off her first win at flyweight against Amanda Ribas in March, former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas was expected to fight Maycee Barber at this event. However, Barber has since pulled out and so Tracy Cortez comes in on a couple of weeks notice wielding a perfect 5-0 record in the UFC so far.
The 32-year-old Namajunas is a very different fighter nowadays to the fighter who first entered the UFC back in 2014 who was known primarily for her crafty grappling skills and willingness to throw caution to the wind in order to get a submission finish. Over time her striking developed technically to the extent that it became her primary weapon, alongside a more strategic approach to fighting that took away much of the risk-taking antics of her earlier years. Nowadays she’s become even more cautious as she tries to make her mark up at 125lbs, working behind her fast, accurate jab with good footwork, while being more likely to go for position rather than submission when she finds herself on top on the mat.
The 30-year-old Cortez has put together a solid run of form, although she’s not yet faced a ranked contender in the Octagon yet. That being said, in her final Invicta FC fight before going through the UFC’s Contender Series Cortez did earn a split-decision win over Erin Blanchfield, whose since gone on to be one of the division’s leading contenders. Cortez is a willing striker, but is still a work-in-progress technique wise. So instead she tends to focus on her capable offensive wrestling and can grapple too, which has enabled her to control opponents on the mat and grind out victories. Cortez hasn’t had much success finding finishes either on the feet or the mat though, with 9 of her 11 victories being by decision.
I’m not really a big fan of Namajunas fighting at 125lbs though and she doesn’t seem to be fighting with much of a sense of hunger these days. That being said, this is a big step up for Cortez who still has weaknesses in most aspects of her game that a skilled technician like Namajunas should be able to exploit. I’d expect her to be sharper on the attack and more evasive than Cortez, and will also have the advantage on the mat too. I could see her getting a submission finish if she really wants it, but given how she’s fought lately I’ll say she primarily sticks to her jab and footwork to win on the scorecards.
Prediction: Rose Namajunas to win by decision.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov Prediction
Santiago Ponzinibbio suffered a KO loss to Kevin Holland in his last Octagon outing in April of last year. That leaves the veteran with 3 losses from his last 4 fights, as has Muslim Salikhov, who was also knocked out in his last appearance against Randy Brown in February.
The 37-year-old Ponzinibbio had a couple of years out of the sport due to a series of health scares back in late 2018 at a time when he was on a seven-fight winning streak. He’s never quite rediscovered that form, having lost four of his six fights since returning in 2021. Ponzinibbio will have an inch in height and 3″ in reach over Salikhov on Saturday night and he likes to implement a pressure-based kickboxing style with good output. He’s not as fast and fearless as he once was, but he still has an ability to attack in combination with solid power in his punches and kicks, while he’s also able to work on the mat when required with respectable BJJ.
Salikhov recently turned 40-years-old and perhaps it’s no coincidence that the only two losses via strikes in his 24-fight career have come in the past couple of years. He was never a fighter who looked impressive physically, and he’s become more restrained with his output over time, but even so he’s still a skilled, savvy striker who picks his moments to land accurate punches with good power and backs that up with a versatile kicking game and willingness to mix in spinning techniques. Meanwhile, Salikhov is also a respectable wrestler when he chooses to implement that side of his game.
Both fighters here are well past their prime and have signs of deteriorating chins, but I think Ponzinibbio still has enough left to be the quicker, more active striker here and earn a decision victory.
Prediction: Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision.
Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva Prediction
Drew Dober’s first fight in 2024 ended in a unanimous decision loss against Renato Moicano. He was then expected to face Mike Davis at this event, but with his opponent out injured, he’ll now be facing a short-notice opponent in Jean Silva instead, who comes in just two weeks after he KO’d Charles Jourdain at UFC 303.
The 35-year-old Dober is a straight-ahead style of striker who likes to be on the front foot applying pressure, is willing to eat a shot to land one of his own, and has very heavy hands. In fact his last seven wins in the UFC all came via punches, even folding up Rafael Alves with a single punch to the solar plexus a couple of years ago. In addition to his punching power Dober has always leaned heavily on his impressive durability, but he was TKO’d in the 1st round by Matt Frevola last year and there have been signs that he’s not taking strikes quite as well as he used to. Dober does still have good cardio though and will have a natural advantage in this fight as he trains in Denver so will be more accustomed to the altitude.
Like Dober, the 27-year-old Silva is a striker with a reputation as a heavy hitter. That includes 10 of his 13 career victories coming by way of strikes, and though he’s only two fights into his UFC run the fact that he became the first person to KO Jourdain last time out is a nice feather in his cap. That being said, I’ve never a big fan of fighters taking on another bout so soon after their last one, and on this occasion it also means he’ll be stepping up from 145lbs to 155lbs too. He’s quite a big featherweight though who actually failed to make weight last time out and is only giving up an inch in height and reach to Dober.
This fight should be a head on clash, and with the power on display there’s a high likelihood of a finish. Dober’s chin may be declining a bit, but he’s still a tough competitor and with Silva having struggled with his last weight cut and now fighting again a fortnight later up a weight class I’m leaning slightly towards Dober to be the one landing the fight-ending blow by the 2nd round, while his cardio edge will also aid him if the fight goes longer.
Prediction: Drew Dober to win by TKO in Rd2.
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Ange Loosa Prediction
Gabriel Bonfim hit the ground running after joining the UFC last year, racking up back-to-back 1st round submission victories to go 15-0, but last time out he suffered his first career loss after being TKO’d by Nicholas Dalby. Now he’ll attempt to prove that was just a one-off when he goes up against Ange Loosa, who lost his UFC debut, but then won two fights in a row, before suffering an eye-poke in his last bout that led to a no-contest.
The loss to Dalby doesn’t change the fact that the 26-year-old Bonfim is a very talented fighter and he was getting the better of much of that fight before finally running out of steam due to the insane pace, durability and determination of his opponent. Bonfim possesses a very well-rounded skills-set, with his ground game being particularly dangerous thanks to his refined series of choke-based submissions that have led to no less than 12 submission finishes from 15 career victories. He also has the wrestling to get the fight to the mat in the first place, but despite all that he actually enjoys operating on the feet for extended periods with solid kickboxing technique and shot selection as well as good speed and tempo to his work.
The 31-year-old Loosa is a muscular, athletic fighter who is 3″ shorter than Bonfim, but actually has a couple of extra inches in reach over him. Loosa is a respectable striker who will also look to wrestle as well. Despite his physical presence he hasn’t proven to be much of a finishing threat though, with his last stoppage victory being six years ago, but on the other hand he has yet to be finished himself in his 13-fight career.
It’ll be interesting to see how Bonfim bounces back psychologically from his first ever loss. This will prove to be a solid test for him, but I think he gets the better of Loosa here as he’s the more talented of the two and is much more likely to find a finish, which I’ll say he does via submission in the 2nd round.
Prediction: Gabriel Bonfim to win by submission in Rd2.
Julian Erosa vs. Christian Rodriguez Prediction
Julian Erosa shook off back-to-back TKO losses when he claimed a submission win over Ricardo Ramos in March and now gets back into action against Christian Rodriguez, who is currently riding a four-fight winning streak.
The 34-year-old Erosa is an aggressive, all-action fighter with a lanky build that will afford him a 6″ height and 3″ reach advantage over Rodriguez. He can fight from range but also loves to just trade toe-to-toe and try to drown his opponents with his relentless offense. And meanwhile, if the fight spills onto the mat Erosa has proven to be a notable submission threat. It’s a style that worked well for him on the regional scene in particular and he does have a total of 24 finishes from 28 career victories on his record. The problem however is that his chin isn’t a strong as his mental fortitude and so his willingness to get hit to land his own has backfired on him multiple times. In fact, over three separate stints in the UFC over the years he’s been stopped by strikes on six occasions, including 3 by KO, not to mention also being TKO’d on TUF.
The 26-year-old Rodriguez has been put up against some notable prospects like Raul Rosas Jr, Cameron Saaiman and Isaac Dulgarian of late and proven to be up to the challenge. His style might not be as eye-catching as some others, but his solid all-round skill-set, cardio and cool-headed approach when put under pressure has served him well and made him hard to beat. He largely sticks to the fundamentals in the striking department with sound technique and is mindful of his defense, while he’s demonstrated a respectable ground game too and will look for submission opportunities.
Erosa is certainly the bigger finishing threat here and will attempt to overwhelm Rodriguez with offense. I’m not so sure he’ll succeed due to Rodriguez’s composure in the heat of the battle, and Erosa’s tendency to be overzealous on the attack will leave openings for him to exploit. As such I think he may well have Erosa hurt at some point and will gradually find more success as the rounds go on to earn a decision victory.
Prediction: Christian Rodriguez to win by decision.
Cody Brundage vs. Abdul Razak Al Hassan Prediction
Cody Brundage was submitted by Bo Nickal at UFC 300 and now goes up against Abdul Razak Alhassan, who was submitted by Joe Pyfer in his last appearance back in October of last year.
The 30-year-old Brundage was an odd choice for a spot on the UFC 300 main card, but despite the fact he’s only 4-5 in his UFC run so far, he was coming off back-to-back victories before being served up as the sacrificial lamb for Nickal. Brundage’s middle-of-the-road wrestling was always going to come off second-best in that match-up, but it should serve him better here. He typically likes to mix in striking alongside that, and he does have some power in his hands to make up for his fairly rudimentary technique, but given that the stand-up game is Alhassan’s comfort zone it might be wise to focus more on a mat-based strategy here.
Alhassan is getting up there in years, turning 39 next month and his record over the past few years has been rough, losing five of his last seven fights. However, the fact that both of his wins were by KO gives an indication that his dynamic striking ability is still a big threat. Aside from his hard-hitting punches, agile kicks and striking from the clinch, Alhassan also has a judo background, but can suffer from cardio issues and has a fairly limited ground game. That being said it took until his last fight for him to finally suffer the first submission loss of his career.
Even though he might be declining at this late stage in his career Alhassan is still the better, more versatile and faster striker of the two here, and I think Brundage may well make the mistake of still trying to engage with him on the feet early in the fight, which will lead him to a 1st round TKO loss.
Prediction: Abdul Razak Al Hassan to win by TKO in Rd1.
UFC On ESPN 59 Prelims
(Predicted winners in bold)
Mariya Agapova vs. Luana Santos
Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Montel Jackson
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Fatima Kline
Josh Fremd vs. Andre Petroski
Charles Johnson vs. Joshua Van
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