UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Predictions

UFC 306 aka ‘Riyadh Season: Noche UFC’ takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at The Sphere in Las Vegas, United States and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC 306 Predictions

Featured Betting Sites

Use Code: 'GOBET500'Apply Code

Use Code: GOBETApply Code

✨New Betting Site!✨
Use Code: GOBET250Apply Code

Launched May 2025
Use Code: 'GOBET500'Apply Code

Use Code: 'GOBET500'Apply Code

Use Code: 'WELCOME'Apply Code

Use Code: 'GOBET500'Apply Code

Think. Is this a bet you really want to place?

Set a deposit limit.

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Prediction

Sean O’Malley is seven fights unbeaten and looking his 2nd successful bantamweight title defense on Saturday night when he headlines the show against Merab Dvalishvili, who is unbeaten in his last 10 Octagon appearances.

The 29-year-old O’Malley is one of the sport’s striking elite, and part of what elevates him above the rest is that as well as being very technically sound he also reads his opponents very well and capitalizes on that with sniper-like accuracy, speed and timing when he spots openings to attack. That combination of attributes has led him to many big finishes and means opponents have to be wary when moving into close quarters against him. And O’Malley has very good range management too in order to keep the fight at distance, and will be aided by a significant 5″ height and 4″ reach advantage over Merab.

O’Malley has also had solid takedown defense up to this point, but that will be put to the test like never before on Saturday night as the 33-year-old Dvalishvili is a different animal with his powerhouse wrestling, exceptional cardio and impressive durability. He lacks O’Malley’s high-level technique, finesse and finishing threat, but he makes the most of his strengths to constantly press forward and harass his opponent with endless takedown attempts, and continually having to deal with that can be exceptionally draining. That being said, Dvalishvili’s approach does have flaws as he’s not the best at keeping opponents down, and given that he lacks much in the way of striking defense means continually having to find opportunities to land takedowns will give O’Malley chances to land a killer blow. He is the type of fighter that can get rocked but still use his wrestling to survive and clear the cobwebs though.

Dvalishvili’s style is a miserable match-up for most strikers, so it’s no surprise that O’Malley hasn’t exactly been eager to fight him. ‘Suga’ Sean’s striking has a better chance than nearly anyone else to punish Dvalishvili for being so easy to hit while he’s closing the distance to execute his takedowns. Even so, Dvalishvili is going to do his best to give him no room to work with, and I do expect his chain-wrestling will enable him to rinse-and-repeat takedowns and stifle the champ in the clinch in-between times as much as possible over five rounds to end O’Malley’s title reign.

Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Prediction

In the co-main event flyweight champion Alexa Grasso heads into a trilogy fight against former long-time champ Valentina Shevchenko, having submitted her in March of last year and then fought to a split-draw in the rematch several months later.

In their first fight Grasso did well against Shevchenko early, but ‘Bullet’ did take control of the 2nd and 3rd rounds and was well on her way to winning the 4th as well until Grasso did brilliantly to seize on a mistake to win by submission. Grasso showed that was no fluke by engaging in a very competitive fight in the rematch, but the split-draw verdict at the end was controversial as Shevchenko would have won a split-decision if one judge hadn’t scored the final round a puzzling 10-8 in Grasso’s favor.

It’s been great to see the 31-year-old Grasso live up to her potential as she arrived in the UFC back in 2016 as a potential star, but then struggled to make her mark at 115lbs. Given that she was undersized an eventual move up to 125lbs seemed questionable, but proved to be the right move. She’s always been a clean, accurate boxing technician with fast hands and movement, and she retained that up a weight class along with now being a bit more robust and impactful with her punches. And importantly, she is also no longer being as easily overpowered on the mat and can show off her well-versed BJJ and scrambling ability more.

For several years the 36-year-old Shevchenko appeared unstoppable at 125lbs, with her high-level kickboxing and power, sturdy physical presence, surprisingly good wrestling and patient strategic approach. However, even before the title loss to Grasso she wasn’t winning quite as convincingly and showed hints of perhaps slowing down. And that’s not surprising when you consider she’s now 21-years into a pro-fighting career that includes a vast amount of kickboxing bouts alongside MMA. Even so, she was still on the verge up being three rounds up against Grasso in that 1st meeting before being submitted, and was unlucky not to win the rematch.

So it definitely doesn’t feel to me like Grasso just has Shevchenko’s number, but I do think she holds a natural advantage in that she is still in her prime years, and I think that helps accentuate her speed advantage against her older rival on the feet. On the other hand, there’s been a theme in the two fights that Shevchenko has been able to make good use of her wrestling, and though Grasso’s crafty grappling is a proven threat, I do feel Shevchenko can continue to utilize this advantage to win rounds and finally eek out a narrow decision win over Grasso to reclaim the title.

Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko to win by decision

Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes Prediction

This fight was originally set for UFC 303 a few months ago, but was scrapped after Brian Ortega fell ill on fight night following a tough weight cut. Now it’s been rearranged and sees Ortega looking to build on a submission win over Yair Rodriguez in February, while Diego Lopes looks to continue his impressive four-fight winning run.

The 33-year-old Ortega’s UFC 303 call-off is somewhat understandable given that the fight was arranged on just a couple of weeks short notice. It does add to a long list of injuries and ailments that have eroded prime years of his career though, leaving him with only 4 fights in the past five years. To be fair, Ortega did disappear for almost two years following a striking beatdown against Max Holloway only to return with markedly improved striking, becoming more cohesive and effective rather than just being a power puncher with an extremely durable chin. Despite that he still remains quite hittable though. Meanwhile, it’s still his excellent BJJ ability and cat-like ability to pounce on fight-ending submissions that continues to be his most dangerous weapon. He also thrives in scrambles, but getting the fight to the mat in the first place isn’t a given as he’s not the best wrestler.

The 29-year-old Lopes took everyone by surprise when he entered into the UFC as an ultra-short-notice replacement to fight the undefeated Movsar Evloev in May of last year and right from the opening bell took the fight to him and had him in real danger at times, though he ultimately lost on the scorecards. He then proved that performance was no fluke by going on to submit Gavin Tucker, KO Pat Sabatini and TKO Sodiq Yusuff, all within the space of a single round. Lopes benefits from being very well-rounded, with his pressure, accurate striking and power on the feet being complimented by a similarly high-paced, aggressive submission game on the mat that will see him chain together submission attempts. Between the two all but two of his 24 career wins have come inside the distance.

Much of my breakdown remains the same here from a few months ago, although I must admit I’ve been wavering on the prediction. Still, I’m sticking with my original prediction that Lopes will find success on the feet early here against the hittable Ortega with his high-tempo, 3″ height and reach advantage and good accuracy, but ‘T-City’ will prove to be hard to finish as always, and when the action inevitably spills onto the mat I still feel it’s Ortega who will prove to have the more ruthlessly effective submission game.

Prediction: Brian Ortega to win by submission in Rd2

Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics Prediction

Both fighters here lost in their respective UFC debuts, but since then Daniel Zellhuber has won three-in-a-row to go 15-1 in his career overall, while Esteban Ribovics is coming of back-to-back victories that took him to 13-1.

The 25-year-old Zellhuber is a very big lightweight standing 3″ taller than his opponent at 6ft 1″ while having a major 8″ reach advantage too. And he utilizes that very well with good boxing fundamentals to the head and body, including a long, rangey jab and a nice kicking game to complement it. Despite all that he is still quite hittable at times, not helped by his willingness to go toe-to-toe at times. Meanwhile, Zellhuber can also work from the clinch and can threaten with both ground-and-pound and submissions on the mat.

The 28-year-old Ribovics is a battling striker with good power in his hands who is willing to eat shots to land his own. He also earned a 37 second second head kick KO finish against Terence McKinney last time out, but early in his career he was actually beating people on the regional circuit via submission, including a string of wins via kimura.

Zellhuber will undoubtedly be proud to represent his country on Mexican Independence Day on such a high-profile card, but he’d do well not to get carried away by the occasion and brawl with Ribovics, who has enough power to trouble him. If he instead makes good use of his physical advantages and better technique from range then I see him navigating his way to a decision win here.

Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber to win by decision.

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne Prediction

After a submission win in his UFC debut in February, Ronaldo Rodriguez now finds himself propelled into the main card opener of this major event against Ode Osbourne, who is coming in off back-to-back defeats.

Rodriguez is another up-and-coming Mexican prospect at 25-years-old with a solid 16-2 career record. He’s a fairly well-rounded fighter with good cardio who will press the action with respectable striking with an emphasis on landing on the counter, while he’s also an active grappler who will hunt out opportunities to sink in a choke.

The 32-year-old Osbourne is a lanky flyweight who will stand an inch taller than Rodriguez, but has a big 8″ reach advantage. He’s an inconsistent fighter, but he is quite capable offensively with good athleticism that enables him to piece together rangey strikes with speed and power, while he’s also an ok wrestler and capable grappler. His style leans towards the erratic side of unpredictable though and he has significant defensive issues, particularly on the mat where his last two fights have ended in submission losses, and he’s been KO’d in the UFC twice as well which leaves concerns about his chin.

At 32 I’m not convinced Osbourne will ever be able to become more cohesive in his approach and fix his flaws, so I’m going with the still developing and more consistent Rodriguez to catch him in a second round submission here.

Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez to win by submission in Rd2

[the_ad_group id=”2000243″]