UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura Predictions

UFC 310 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas  and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC 310 Predictions

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura Prediction

With two successful defenses of the flyweight title already in the books, Alexandre Pantoja now takes on a fresh challenger in the debuting Kai Asakura, who recently vacated the Rizin bantamweight title.

The 34-year-old Pantoja is a very well-rounded fighter who will press the action wherever the fight goes.  On the feet he has battling qualities, with his pressure, aggressive boxing at close quarters and strong chin making up for him not necessarily having the most refined technique.  Pantoja is even more capable on the mat and he transitions seemlessly from striking to his very good wrestling game and assured grappling ability.  He scrambles well, has good control, takes the back often and is always a submission threat.  Pantoja’s high pace can take a toll on his cardio at times, but he’s shown a knack for fighting through that, and he’s also never been finished in his 33 fight career.

It’s rare that a debuting fighter gets an immediate title shot and headline status, but the 31-year-old Asakura is a two-time Rizin champion with an entertaining style and a good following thanks to also being a YouTube star in his native Japan.  he’s been competing on the Asian MMA scene for over a decade and has a 21-4 career record, and though he does have two losses to a couple of notable fighters with ties to the UFC in Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi, he actually also holds wins over them too.  Asakura is a dangerous striker who is always looking to unleash the legimate knockout power in his hands and he has very good knees too that led him to back-to-back finishes prior to joining the UFC.  Asakura will eat some strikes though and has been finished a few times.  Meanwhile he has respectable enough takedown defense and a competent enough ground game, though it’s not as convincing as his striking.

It’s worth noting that in addition to this being his UFC debut, Asakura is also coming down a weight class for this fight, will be fighting in the U.S. for the first time, is competing in the Octagon instead of a ring, and has never been beyond the third round in his career.  That’s a lot to take on-board alongside going up against such a high-level opponent.  Asakura’s power could absolutely trouble Pantoja, but the champ is uncommonly durable and I think his ability to quickly transition from striking to wrestling will pay dividends here as he has the advantage on the mat, and given that he’s also accustomed to going five rounds I think he’ll gradually wear down the challenger and deliver a fourth round submission finish.

Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja to win by submission In Rd4.

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry Prediction

A shot at the welterweight title is on the line when two undefeated stars of the division clash in the co-main event, with Shavkat Rakhmonov’s six-fight winning streak so far in the UFC having taken his career record to 18-0, while Ian Garry has won eight UFC fights to go 15-0 overall.

The 30-year-old Rakhmonov has proven to be a formidable force in the 170lb ranks so far as he possesses an exceptionally well-rounded skill-set with little in the way of obvious weak points. He pushes a very hard pace wherever the fight goes, and yet on the feet he doesn’t compromise on accuracy, making effective use of his compact, powerful boxing and versatile kicking game, while also proving to have good defense and a strong chin. He operates well in the clinch too and continues to excel on the mat with a robust mix of wrestling and grappling, while providing finishing threats via both ground-and-pound and submission. As such all 18 of his career wins have ended inside the distance, including five submission finishes and one KO victory during his six fight run in the Octagon.

The 27-year-old Garry exudes confidence and it’s not hard to see why when you watch his slick, assured kickboxing technique, picking out clean punches with power, working kicks to all levels fluently and utilizing good footwork too. He operates well from range, but it’s worth noting that while he’s 2″ taller than Rakhmonov here, he’s actually giving up 3″ in reach to him. While striking is his main focus, Garry has a decent level of comfort on the mat, but doesn’t have much end product to show for it, with only one submission win on his record.

These two have stood out from the crowd during their convincing rises up the welterweight ladder in recent times, but it’s Rakhmonov in particular who appears to have all the attributes required to be a future champion. He won’t mind striking with Garry and will look to keep applying continual pressure, but really it’s his advantage on the mat that’s likely to be his main focus here, and I expect him to get the fight there eventually, then take the back and sink in a submission by the third round.

Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by submission in Rd3.

Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov Prediction

Ciryl Gane was dethroned as heavyweight champion by Jon Jones last year and has since rebounded with a TKO victory against Sergey Spivak in September. Now he’ll end the year by heading into a rematch with Alexander Volkov, who lost by unanimous decision in their first fight back in 2021, but is currently on a four-fight winning streak.

The 34-year-old Gane is a physical specimen at heavyweight who manages to be huge, muscular and yet still light on his feet into the bargain. Despite that, he’s not the kind of fighter who wades into fights with all guns blazing looking to land a knockout blow. Instead he opts for a more thoughtful, calculated approach, utilizing his technical kickboxing ability, 6ft 5″ frame and 81″ reach together with good footwork to operate efficiently from range with his punches and kicks. He has knockout power in his locker, but he picks his moments carefully to use it and more often than not just looks to be quicker to the punch and outland his opponents rather than requiring a finish. Meanwhile, earlier in his UFC run Gane showed off respectable offensive wrestling and even promising signs of a submission game, but significant weaknesses have since been brought to light with Francis Ngannou surprisingly managing to outwrestle him for much of their title clash, while Jon Jones had little trouble submitting him last year.

The 36-year-old Volkov is a seasoned technical striker with a tall, rangey frame that lends itself to keeping opponents on the end of his straight punches and kicks. His size will largely be negated here though as though he’s 2″ taller than Gane, he has an inch less in reach and isn’t as physically strong. Like Gane, Volkov has quite a refined approach for a heavyweight, and doesn’t just swing wildly in the hopes of a finish. He does a good job of attacking in combination and has respectable power that’s become more potent over time after making an effort to bulk up his previously leaner frame. Volkov’s style is very stand-up orientated and so he’s got less to offer than Gane on the mat and has been submitted a few times in the past.

Gane was able to win out in a steady, tactical kickboxing orientated fight the last time they fought and there’s little to suggest that will play out much differently stylistically this time around, unless Gane is able to land a takedown attempt. I don’t think there’ll be too much between them by the end of the fight, but I’ll take the Frenchman to have done enough again to win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Ciryl Gane to win by decision.

Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie Prediction

Bryce Mitchell suffered a bad knockout loss a year ago and now he’ll try to get back to winning ways against Kron Gracie, who has lost his last two fights in the Octagon.

The 30-year-old Mitchell quickly made a name for himself when he arrived in the UFC in 2018 after a stint on TUF and managed to go on a six-fight winning streak, thanks largely to his skilled grappling ability and intensity, which allowed him to control his opponent, thrive in scrambles and even earn a rare ‘twister’ submission win in late 2019. Meanwhile he’s a willing but scrappy striker on the feet, and that caught up with him against future champ Ilia Topuria in 2022, who had his number in the striking department and also found a submission finish on the mat. His striking also came up second best against Josh Emmett last time out, suffering a KO loss in the opening round.

The 36-year-old Gracie is the son of the legendary Rickson Gracie, and so of course he’s a highly decorated BJJ player.  He was able to put that to good use early in his MMA career with five submission wins in a row, including a rear-naked choke finish of Alex Caceres back in 2019. However, Gracie lost his next fight to Cub Swanson and then disappeared for the best part of four years, then returned with a very poor showing in a decision loss to Charles Jourdain last year. The problem has been much as it has been for the Gracie clan for years now, where just being great at Jiu-Jitsu isn’t enough to make a sustained impact in the Octagon. At one point Gracie seemed to have more of a comfort level on the feet than others in his family, but it’s since become painfully apparent it’s not enough, and his lack of wrestling means he struggles to get the fight where he needs it to be.

Mitchell may have some flaws, but he’s still a talented fighter who is less one-dimensional than Gracie.  As such I think Mitchell should be able to use his wrestling defensively to keep this one standing, and while he’s no world-beater on the feet, he’s competent enough to outstrike Gracie and emerge with a decision win.

Prediction: Bryce Mitchell to win by decision.

Nate Landwehr vs. Doo-Ho Choi Prediction

Coming off a KO win earlier in the year, Nate Landwehr now opens up the UFC 310 main card against Doo-Ho Choi, who earned his first UFC win in 8 years back in July.

The 36-year-old Landwehr is an all-action striker who has entertained fans with his high-volume offense, a willingness to eat punches to land his own, and impressive heart and durability that enables him to keep battling through adversity. His technique can go out the window at times in favor of raw aggression, but there are some signs he’s tried to reign that in a bit over time. Landwehr can also wrestle and has picked up a couple of submission wins in his past five fights.

Like Landwehr, Choi was an action-orientated crowd-pleaser when he first joined the UFC all the way back in 2015. Known as ‘The Korean Superboy’, He was fast, athletic and would throw caution to the wind by putting everything into his punches as he went in on the attack, and his power was evident for all to see with back-to-back KO wins in his first two fights. His style was reckless though and soon caught up to him, suffering three losses in a row, with two coming via TKO. Then came a long 3+ year absence from competing due to injuries and military serving, only to finally return with a more measured approach that’s seen him pick up a draw and a win so far. Now 33, Choi is a fighter who has always had a good amount of skill and can operate on the mat as well as the feet, so it remains interesting to see if he can distance himself from his former bad habits and go some way towards living up to his potential relatively late in his career.

I’m a bit torn on the pick here. If Landwehr can draw Choi into a brawl then I lean towards his durability to outlast his opponent’s. On the other hand, if Choi can restrain himself and be the quicker, cleaner and more calculated striker then I think he could emerge with the win here. I’ll take a chance and say Choi does just that to win by decision.

Prediction: Doo-Ho Choi to win by decision.

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UFC 310 Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Dominick Reyes vs. Anthony Smith
Vicente Luque vs. Themba Gorimbo
Movsar Evloev vs. Aljamain Sterling
Randy Brown vs. Bryan Battle
Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders
Cody Durden vs. Joshua Van
Michael Chiesa vs. Max Griffin
Clay Guida vs. Chase Hooper
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Łukasz Brzeski

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