UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka Predictions

UFC 303 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, United States and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC 303 Predictions

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Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka Prediction

Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka fought for the vacant 205lb title back in November of last year, with Pereira emerging victorious via a 2nd round TKO. Both have since earned convincing victories via strikes at UFC 300 a couple of months ago and have now agreed to rematch each other on just two weeks notice in the main event of UFC 303.

The 36-year-old Pereira has demonstrated his world-class kickboxing ability in style so far in the UFC, winning both the 185lb and 205lb titles in record-quick time while finishing the likes of israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland, Jamahal Hill and Prochazka along the way. His hands are deadly weapons and his left hook in particular is a devastating fight-ender. However, his kicking game also has a big role to play and his debilitating calf kicks in particular have already been a problem for Prochazka, who was even taken clean off his feet in the opening minutes of the fight with one. Pereira’s defense is better than Prochaza’s, but it’s far from impenetrable and he can be quite hittable when he’s being pressured and backed up, though he will still fire off counters. Pereira’s takedown defense is weak and his ground game is limited, but he was able to survive and get back to his feet when Prochazka took him down last year.

The 31-year-old Prochazka is a hard fighter to deal with thanks to his aggressive, unorthodox and unpredictable style. He could rightly argue that his first fight with Pereira was stopped a little prematurely, and that’s a testament to his toughness as he was buckled by a flush left hand and then blasted by a series of big elbows, but still remained conscious. However, Prochazka’s habit of fighting with his hands down and willingness to eat strikes to land his own does raise questions about how long his chin will remain an asset. Prochazka is a huge threat when he goes on the attack though with his sudden and explosive offense from unexpected angles having proved tob e a convincing route to big finishes throughout his career. Meanwhile, though he’s not the most technical wrestler he can get takedowns and would have the advantage on the mat in this fight.

Prochazka showed some willingness to go for takedowns last time out and it would seem wise to make that even more of a focus this time out. Prochazka relishes the opportunity to let his hands fly though, and while he’s more than capable of putting Pereira out with a flurry of strikes, his own lack of defense leaves ample opportunity for ‘Poatan’ to land one clean punch to end the fight. Prochazka’s offensive focus and lack of time to prepare effectively here also means Pereira is likely to have another field day chopping away at his lead leg, so while this could go either way I’ll take Pereira to once again deliver a 2nd round TKO finish here.

Prediction: Alex Pereira to win by TKO in Rd2

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Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes Prediction

Another fight made on just two weeks notice, former featherweight title challenger Brian Ortega looks to build on a submission win over Yair Rodriguez when he faces Diego Lopes, who has won his last three fights inside the first round.

Getting to see Ortega fight for the 2nd time this year is highly unusual as you’d have to go back to 2018 to find the last time he fought more than once in a calendar year. That’s unfortunate as he has always had a high-ceiling in terms of his potential, but due to injuries and other issues the prime years of his career have breezed by with only 4 fights in the past five years. It’s not been a complete waste though as Ortega did clearly level-up his striking during that period, becoming more refined and effective with his output, while further harnessing the natural power he possesses in his punches. Ortega’s biggest strength is still his excellent BJJ ability though and his cat-like ability to snatch on submissions at a moments notice is impressive to witness. He thrives in scrambles, but getting the fight to the mat in the first place isn’t a given as he’s not the best wrestler, and while he’s exceptionally durable he eats too many strikes for his own good at times.

The 29-year-old Lopes took everyone by surprise when he entered into the UFC as an ultra-short-notice replacement to fight the undefeated Movsar Evloev in May of last year and right from the opening bell took the fight to him and had him in real danger at times, though he ultimately lost on the scorecards. He then proved that performance was no fluke by going on to submit Gavin Tucker, KO Pat Sabatini and TKO Sodiq Yusuff, all within the space of a single round. Lopes benefits from being very well-rounded, with his pressure, accurate striking and power on the feet being complimented by a similarly high-paced, aggressive submission game on the mat that will see him chain together submission attempts. Between the two all but two of his 24 career wins have come inside the distance.

This has all the makings of a competitive and very entertaining fight wherever the action goes, so it’s a bit unfortunate neither fighter had had the opportunity to fully prepare for it. I think Lopes can find success on the feet early here against the hittable Ortega with his 3″ height and reach advantage, accuracy and high tempo, but ‘T-City’ is very hard to finish and when the action inevitably spills onto the mat I still feel it’s Ortega who will prove to have the more deadly submission game.

Prediction: Brian Ortega to win by submission in Rd2

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Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze Prediction

Anthony Smith was originally brought in on a couple of weeks notice to replace Jamahal Hill against Carlos Ulberg. However, Ulberg has also since withdrawn and so now Roman Dolidze goes up against Smith on 8 days notice.

57 fights into a long career that includes 19 losses (11 of those via strikes) and a whole bunch of injury woes along the way, it’s no mean feat that the 35-year-old Smith hasn’t completely run out of steam yet. In fact while he may be past his best he’s actually won two of his last three fights and is clinging onto the No.10 spot on the 205lb rankings heading into this fight. Smith remains a multi-pronged attacking threat with an impressive finishing rate, stopping 35 of his 38 victories inside the distance. He’s a well-versed, versatile muay thai striker who will actively utilize all eight limbs to good effect, while he’s also proven to be a skilled grappler too, with proven finishing ability via submissions and decent wrestling. His heart is never in question, but his durability is clearly a concern these day and his weak leg-checking ability has become an issue.

The 35-year-old Dolidze won six of his first seven UFC fights, but has gone on to lose back-to-back fights on the scorecards against Marvin Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov. He’ll be stepping back up to 205lbs for this late replacement opportunity for the first time in three-and-a-half years, but he did win twice in that division at the start of his UFC run. Dolidze is a durable fighter with a muscular build and solid all-round skill-set. On the feet he’s not the most active or technical, but he has naturally heavy hands and generates a lot of power in his strikes, albeit at the expense of his cardio at times. Dolidze is also a good wrestler and has mean ground-and-pound.

So Dolidze has the better one-punch power, is more durable and has the wrestling advantage, while Smith is the better striking technician and has the superior BJJ game of the two, giving both paths to victory here. However, having never been finished inside the distance Dolidze feels like the safer pick and I think he’ll rock ‘Lionheart’ at some stage, but ultimately settle for a decision win.

Prediction: Roman Dolidze to win by decision

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Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson Prediction

Mayra Bueno Silva failed in her attempt to win the vacant 135lb title last time out and now fights Macy Chiasson, who is coming off a submission victory.

The 32-year-old Silva lacks speed and fluidity on the feet, but she is quite sturdy, will throw kicks and is comfortable exchanging at close range with boxing fundamentals. She can also operate in the clinch, but where she excels most is on the mat, presenting a versatile submission threat that’s led her to 7 finishes from 10 career victories. Her takedown defense isn’t the best though and she can get a bit too comfortable working from her back, while her cardio lets her down at times.

Also 32-years-old, Chiasson is a big 135lb’er who will enjoy a 5″ height and 6″ reach advantage here. Despite her size she doesn’t tend to compete at range as often as you’d expect, though she does have some solid kicks. Instead, she likes to get into the clinch and use her physicality to wear on her opponents while looking for dirty boxing and knee strikes. Chiasson will also use her wrestling and can continue her grinding approach on the canvas, but though she did get a submission win last time out she’s not the biggest finisher either on the feet or on the mat.

Given both fighters styles I can see this being a close quarters battle that will likely end up stuck in the clinch against the cage for extended periods of time, with Chiasson also getting some time on top on the mat too. Chiasson is prone to the occasional blunder, so getting caught in a submission is a definite risk, but with her size and better cardio I’ll take her to gain more control over the fight in the later rounds and grind out a decision victory.

Prediction: Macy Chiasson to win by decision

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Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael ‘Venom’ Page Prediction

Ian Machado Garry carries a perfect 14-0 career record into the Octagon on Saturday night when he’ll be going up against former Bellator star Michael ‘Venom’ Page, who defeated Kevin Holland in his UFC debut earlier in the year.

The 26-year-old Garry has proven to be an athletic, self-assured fighter with very good striking ability. He’s not as flashy as his opponent, instead focusing on well-executed, tried-and-tested kickboxing techniques with good power in his punches, effective kicks delivered to all levels and his footwork is on-point too. While he’s at his best on the feet Garry is also more comfortable on the mat than ‘Venom’ and could look to integrate that into his strategy here.

The 37-year-old ‘Venom’ Page is a hugely talented, experienced striker with an unusually agile and creative yet still effective style. While Garry is as tall as him, Page’s larger than normal wingspan will give him an extra 5″ in reach to work with here. And despite his size and age he is still very fast and athletic, which he uses that to his advantage, staying at a distance and using unorthodox movement to keep his opponents guessing before suddenly closing the distance swiftly to land dynamic, accurate strikes. Page can be somewhat vulnerable to leg kicks at times though and his ground game is a weak point that could prove problematic in the UFC ranks.

This is a great match-up and it’ll be fascinating to see how the striking battle unfolds. Page is a clever and crafty striker, and with his movement, unpredictability and reach I can see him making it hard for Garry to be as effective as he normally would on the feet. Garry has more strings to his bow though and I think that could be vital to his chances of success here, mixing in takedowns to unsettle Page and gain more control of the fight as it progresses. So while there’s a real chance this is a banana peel match-up for Garry, I’ll take him to mix things up and emerge with a decision victory.

Prediction: Ian Machado Garry to win by decision

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