UFC 307 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
UFC 307 Predictions
Featured Betting Sites
Use Code: 'GOBET500'
Use Code: GOBET
✨New Betting Site!✨Use Code: GOBET250
Login to View Offers!
Launched May 2025Use Code: 'GOBET500'
Use Code: 'GOBET500'
Login to View Offers!
Use Code: 'GOBET500'
Login to View Offers!
Use Code: 'WELCOME'
Use Code: 'GOBET500'
Login for Opening Specials!Think. Is this a bet you really want to place?
Set a deposit limit.
Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr Prediction
Alex Pereira already has two convincing light-heavyweight title defenses under his belt in 2024, and he’s now looking to make it three when he goes up against Khalil Rountree Jr, who will be making his first appearance of the year and is on a five-fight winning streak.
A former kickboxing ace, the 37-year-old Pereira’s elite-level striking has translated exceptionally well to the UFC’s Octagon, having T(KO)’d top-flight talents like Israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland, Jiri Prochazka (x2) and Jamahal Hill during his title-winning runs in both the 185lb and 205lb weight classes. Essentially all 8 limbs are knockout weapons for Pereira, but his left hook is known to be a particularly devastating, while his kicks are fast and untelegraphed, yet still land hard enough to potentially drop opponents to the canvas when delivered either to the head or even the calf. Pereira reads his opponents well to find openings to attack, but while he is also fairly solid defensively too he can be hit, and particularly in his numerous fights with Adesanya over the years we’ve seen he can be hurt too. It’s proven extremely difficult to finish him though and he has very good powers of recovery.
The 34-year-old Rountree is a dangerous striker in his own right, as evidenced by four of his last five fights ending via TKO, including a 3rd round finish of Anthony Smith last time out. He’s a thick, muscular 205lb’er, but will give up 3″ in height and reach to Pereira on Saturday night. Rountree is a technically sound muay thai striker who fights at a measured pace and possesses particularly hard leg kicks, though Karl Roberson can testify his body kick can be just as punishing, while his last two wins were via punches. Rountree has been TKO’d in the first round a couple of times during his time in the UFC though, albeit not in the past five years, while he’s also yet to fight beyond the third round.
Rountree is a good fighter, and with his power he always has a chance here, but he’s trying to beat a master at his own game here and I think Pereira will prove to be a step-ahead in terms of his technical ability and fight-ending potential, leading to a second round TKO finish.
Prediction: Alex Pereira to win by TKO in Rd2.
Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena Prediction
Raquel Pennington won the vacant women’s bantamweight title with a decision win against Mayra Bueno Silva in January that took her winning streak to six fights and now she’ll go up against a former champion in Julianna Pena, who hasn’t fought in over two years since convincingly losing the belt in a rematch with Amanda Nunes.
The 36-year-old Pennington is a solidly capable fighter, but not someone that really seemed a likely champion during her decade long run in the promotion. Never did that seem more apparent than when she fought her way to a title shot in 2018, only to then suffer a hugely one-sided TKO beatdown against Amanda Nunes that highlighted the huge gulf in ability between them. That’s not to say there aren’t positives for ‘Rocky’ though, who has since fought her way back to win the title after Nunes retirement. Good fundamental boxing ability has always been a hallmark of Pennington’s game, showing enough technical know-how and toughness to gradually edge ahead of most opponents in striking exchanges despite having very little to offer in the way of finishing power. She relies on her steady striking consistency from round to round, together with more and these days leaning more on her sturdy, grinding clinch game to get the job done, on the scorecards and she can mix in some decent offensive wrestling too.
The 35-year-old Pena was a former TUF winner who shocked the world when she ended dominant champion Amanda Nunes long title-reign in July of 2022. Truth be told that was a testament to Pena’s grit, determination, tenacity and toughness rather than elite-level skill though, getting in her face with rudimentary but relentless striking combinations, before then pouncing on the wilting star to claim a submission victory. Suspicions that Nunes had been out-of-sorts that night were confirmed however when she decisively won the rematch, although Pena demonstrated her heart and mental toughness again by fighting to the bitter end. So Pena is a physically strong fighter who likes to bully opponents, and while her striking technique leaves something to be desired, she is always willing to take the fight to her opponent and does a good job of that in other areas too, with good wrestling and clinch work, mauling ground-and-pound and offering a submission threat too. She has also been submitted twice in the UFC though.
Pena is more aggressive and has a bit of a power advantage here on the feet, but Pennington is the cleaner, craftier striking technician. If Pena is to win I think she may need to make the most of other aspects of her game. The clinch is interesting as Pennington is stronger than you’d expect there and there’s a risk it could turn into a stalemate, but I do think Pena could find success on the mat with her doggedly-determined wrestling and battling mentality, and she’ll be willing to barge through some strikes to make her takedown entries. In the end I suspect there might be little to choose between them after 25 minutes, with Pennington just doing enough to get the nod.
Prediction: Raquel Pennington to win by decision.
Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista Prediction
Two years after retiring from MMA, Jose Aldo made a comeback at UFC 301 and ended Jonathan Martinez’s six-fight winning streak by unanimous decision, and now continues on against Mario Bautista, who is also on a six-fight unbeaten run.
All credit to the 38-year-old Aldo for returning to business so smoothly in the UFC, looking just as good as when he left. That’s partly due to the fact he hadn’t just had his feet up during his two-years away from the sport, instead pursuing his dream to compete in pro-boxing. That perhaps didn’t pan out how he’d hoped, but it did mean he’s been continuing to work on the sharp technical boxing that had already been a stand-out aspect of his game in the UFC, while his cardio also seems to have been preserved. And Aldo did fire off the occasional leg kick during his comeback fight, though it still feels like an underutilized weapon given how good he was at that in the earlier years of his career. And Aldo even showed off a little wrestling too, with his ground game being something that’s always been in his locker but is rarely utilized. Typically though he likes to keep the fight standing and he continue to have excellent takedown defense.
The 30-year-old Bautista is a hard-working fighter with good cardio and a well-rounded set of skills that he blends together well. He’s a pressure fighter with respectable technique on the feet, he stays active with good volume, has solid kicks and decent punching power, though rarely of the fight-ending variety with just 3 T(KO) finishes from 14 career wins. He’s also a capable offensive wrestler and has a solid submission game that not so long ago was responsible for a string of three stoppage wins in a row.
Martinez looked a bit overawed by Aldo at times in their fight, but I think Bautista will push the veteran star harder with his pressure, energy and more industrious, multi-pronged approach. And I think that could take a toll on Aldo at this stage in his career, allowing Bautista to outwork him and emerge with a decision victory.
Prediction: Mario Bautista to win by decision.
Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison Prediction
Ketlen Vieira has won three of her last four fights, with her only loss being to current 135lb champ Raquel Pennington, and she now faces a stern test in the form of former Olympic judo gold medalist and two-time PFL tournament champion Kayla Harrison, who submitted Holly Holm in her UFC debut at UFC 300.
The 33-year-old Vieira is a good sized bantamweight who has been a notable contender for years and has beaten the likes of Holly Holm, Miesha Tate, Cat Zingano and Sara McMan. She can strike, but it’s really functional at best and certainly isn’t her strong suit. Instead she’s at her best grappling on the mat, though she lacks a cutting edge and has had to go to the judges scorecards in 7 of her 8 UFC wins.
A big problem for Vieira is that she generally likes to get into the clinch and work for trips and throws to get the fight to the mat, but will lead her straight into the clutches of an elite judo player in the 34-year-old Harrison. The muscular Olympian is also exceptionally strong and has defied some sceptics by successfully dropping to 136lbs in the UFC despite having fought in the PFL at 156lbs. She’s not a one-trick pony either as after using her judo to get the fight to the mat Harrison has a good submission game and thunderous ground-and-pound too, resulting in 13 of her 17 career wins ending inside the distance. Her striking is much less convincing, but that’s not been an issue so far.
Harrison has the makings of a future UFC champion and I don’t see Vieira getting in her way here. The Brazilian’s best bet is to try to keep the fight at striking range, but I think Harrison will just bully her way into close quarters and air-mail Vieira to the mat and keep her there as long as it takes to set up a ground-and-pound or submission finish, most likely by the second round.
Prediction: Kayla Harrison to win by submission in Rd2.
Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland Prediction
Roman Dolidze won a short notice fight against Anthony Smith at 205lbs last time out and now returns to 185lbs to fight Kevin Holland, who settled back into the division with a submission win in June after experience mixed results during a stint at welterweight.
The 36-year-old Dolidze is a big, muscular middleweight with a solid set of skills. He’s not the most technical striker and doesn’t offer up a particular high output either, but he has heavy hands, lands impactful low kicks and is also very durable, having never been finished in his career. Meanwhile he’s also a good wrestler who can control the action on top, land ground-and-pound, and though he’s only got three submissions on his record his grappling game is more capable than you might expect. On the downside, due to his size and commitment to power punching and strong-man moves his cardio can be an issue later on in his fights.
The 31-year-old Holland doesn’t have Dolidze’s thickly-built physique, but his longer, leaner frame gives him an extra inch in height and 5″ in reach to work with. Holland is a dynamic striker who moves well and demonstrates creative flair and quirkiness at times that makes him unpredictable. He uses his long limbs to good effect from range with his straight punches landing with power backed up by versatile kicks, and as he closes the distance his arm length gives him opportunities to make effective use of elbows, while standing and jumping knees also come into play. Holland retreated from 185lbs a few years ago after being dominated by strong wrestlers on the mat, and though he’s attempted to address that since with improved takedown defense and better scrambling it still remains a clear area of concern. He is actually a decent offensive wrestler though, has good ground-and-pound and does have some solid offensive submission options.
If Dolidze looks to just stand and trade with Holland then I don’t see it going well for him as ‘Trailblazer’ is the better striker in many aspects, but if he commits to his wrestling I could see him giving Holland flashbacks to his prior run at 185lbs, bringing him down and keeping there for extended periods to secure a decision win.
Prediction: Roman Dolidze to win by decision.
Check UFC Offers![the_ad_group id=”2000243″]
UFC 307 Prelims
(Predicted winners in bold)
Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley
Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo
César Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria
Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Austin Hubbard vs. Alexander Hernandez
Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington
Court McGee vs. Tim Means
Check UFC Offers![the_ad_group id=”2000243″]
