UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Predictions

UFC 305 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. We’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC 305 Predictions

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Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya Prediction

Israel Adesanya’s last fight almost a year ago saw him suffer a shock title loss at the hands of Sean Strickland. In the aftermath of that Dricus du Plessis then came in to defeat Strickland on the scorecards and claim the belt, setting up a showdown between the current and former champion.

The 30-year-old du Plessis has won all seven of his UFC fights so far and managed to finish five of his opponents inside the distance along the way. Du Plessis is a muscular powerhouse of a striker and he knows it, fighting very aggressively as he looks to overwhelm opponents with his knockout power and intense pressure. Given his build you’d think that would tire him out, and indeed he can look out of breath at times, but to his credit he never seems to completely run out of steam and remains a constant threat. He’s more rugged than refined in his approach from a technical perspective though and his defense in particular is suspect at times. So he can be hit and he can be hurt, but he’s durable and has very good powers of recovery. Du Plessis’ offensive threat isn’t just on the feet as he also has solid takedown capability and an effective submission game to go along with some meaty ground-and-pound.

Adesanya turned 35-years-old last month and is coming back after 11 months on the sidelines, which he used to heal-up from undisclosed injury issues. There was also a sense that perhaps the star needed time to recharge mentally as he looked out of sorts in the Strickland fight and had been in two gruelling battles with his nemesis Alex Pereira in the space of six months before that. At his best Adesanya is a truly elite striker who is both a master technician and a high-IQ tactician in the striking department. He has fast, accurate punches, great agility in his effortlessly thrown kicks, and his footwork, distance-management and ability to read opponents keep him in the right place at the right time both offensively and defensively. The former kickboxer’s ground game is more limited, but he has respectable takedown defense and isn’t a complete fish-out-of-water on the mat.

Adesanya is certainly the more skilled, polished striker here and he has the tools, ability and reach to play matador to the bull and punish du Plessis for his defensive lapses. And that could well be the story of the fight. There are concerns though. He’s past his prime years now, has been through the wars when you consider his long kickboxing career in addition to his MMA exploits, and the fact that Strickland had him rocked early is troubling. Meanwhile, du Plessis will be fearless, durable and as well as having the potential to land a fight-ending blow on the feet, could also give him real trouble on the mat too. So I’m taking DDP to put Adesanya on the back-foot early and make life uncomfortable for him, paving the way for the takedown opportunities that will eventually lead him to a 3^rd round submission victory.

Prediction: Dricus du Plessis to win by submission in Rd3.

Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg Prediction

In the co-main event we have a battle of former flyweight title contenders, with Kai Kara-France coming in off back-to-back losses, while Steve Erceg returns to action a few months after his unsuccessful attempt to beat current champion Alexandre Pantoja.

The 31-year-old Kara-France’s last two losses don’t seem so bad when you considered they were against the No.2 ranked former champ Brandon Moreno and current No.3 Amir Albazi. However, Kara-France then pulled out of a fight last September after suffering a bad concussion in training, and so he’s been on the sidelines for the best part of a year recovering. That’s concerning, especially given that striking is his stock-in-trade. In general his durability has been pretty good over the years though, aside from back at the start of his career when he was KO’d twice in a row. And of course the No.4 ranked fighter is a force to be reckoned with offensively as he’s a talented striker who fights at a high pace with clean, technical and hard-hitting boxing along with solid kicks to the legs and body, and he picks his shots intelligently. He also has sturdy takedown defense and is generally good at getting back to his feet when taken down, though he has been submitted a few times in the past.

The 29-year-old Erceg has impressed in his UFC career so far. He’s an unassuming character, but he’s proven to be a very well-rounded fighter who has been admirably consistent so far and stays cool, calm and collected in the heat of the moment. His striking isn’t his strongest suit, but having said that his stand-up game is coming along very well thanks to solid fundamentals that includes a well-versed, accurate jab along with a good sense of distance management and the cardio to maintain his pace from start to finish. Meanwhile, Erceg has good wrestling and very good grappling ability, with submissions tending to be his best chance to find a finish.

Kara-France should be the better striker here, though it’ll be interesting to see if his prior concussion issue has any impact on how confidently he approaches this fight. Still, Erceg feels capable enough to keep things fairly competitive on the feet from range, while he’ll hold a clear advantage if he can get the fight to the mat. And I do think Erceg is methodical enough to find success there along the way as well as also having the better cardio late in the fight, which will help him to a decision victory.

Prediction: Steve Erceg to win by decision.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker Prediction

Mateusz Gamrot has pushed up to No.5 in the lightweight rankings after winning three fights in a row and now takes on Dan Hooker, who has returned to form in the last couple of years with back-to-back victories, leaving him ranked No.11.

The 33-year-old Gamrot is a skilled all-rounder who benefits from being doggedly determined in his approach. He’s a respectable striker who lacks the finesse of an elite striker, but applies pressure well and will swarm into close quarters with strikes, which can also lead to opportunities to transition to takedowns. And wrestling is Gamrot’s biggest plus point, having the strength, ability and conditioning to land multiple takedowns over the course of a fight. He has strong control on top, stays active and has good scrambling too. Gamrot has only lost twice in 27 career fights and has yet to be finished inside the distance.

Gamrot’s nickname is ‘Gamer’, which is certainly very apt, but that could also apply nicely to the 34-year-old Hooker, who is also always up for a fight. He went through a tough spell not so long ago when he won just once in five fights, but that was against top-flight opposition and he’s managed to get back on track since. He’s a spirited striker who will enjoy a 2″ height and 4.5″ reach advantage here and has proven to be a threat with whichever body part he’s chosen to aim in his opponent’s direction, with punches, kicks, knees and elbows all having ended fights during his UFC run. His wrestling can be ok at times, but it’d be hard to get anything going in that regard against Gamrot, while he does have submission ability if he’s taken down. A concern for Hooker is the amount of damage he’s taken over the years as even in fights that have been won or lost on the scorecards he’s often taken a lot of punishment to get there, and has occasionally suffered one-sided beatdowns against the likes of Edson Barboza and Arnold Allen.

Stylistically this is a tough match-up for Hooker as Gamrot will have a sizeable advantage on the mat and his relentless wrestling should ensure he gets the fight there sooner rather than later. A ground-and-pound or submission finish is certainly a real possibility here, but I’ll say Hooker guts it out and Gamrot settles for a convincing decision victory.

Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Prediction

Fan favorite Tai Tuivasa desperately needs a win this weekend after suffering four losses in a row, while Jairzinho Rozenstruik’s recent record is very patchy, but he is coming off a TKO win last time out.

The 31-year-old Tuivasa has experience of digging himself out of a losing slump as he suffered a trio of losses in 2018-2019 only to then bounce back with a five-fight unbeaten run. This time it’s a bit different in that he’s got a lot more miles on the clock, he’s been KO’d twice during his recent run of defeats, and his latest back-to-back submission losses suggest he’s never really shored up his ground game. On the feet he still possesses crushing knockout power though and does actually have competent kickboxer ability and decent movement for his size, but it doesn’t take much to switch him into brawler mode, and as a crowd-pleaser it seems unlikely he’ll ever make a concerted effort to try to change that.

A former long-time kickboxer, The 36-year-old Rozenstruik has also proven to be a knockout artist – and in fact he and ‘Bam Bam’ have identical winning records with 13 finishes via strikes from 14 career victories. Rozenstruik’s approach is different though. He tends not to be the one leading the dance and at times can appear almost gun-shy operating on the outside. He does have good counter-striking though and is explosive when he does decide to attack, with a single punch potentially being enough to end the fight. Meanwhile it’s fair to say that Rozenstruik has absolutely no interest in taking the fight to the mat.

Rozenstruik can be frustrating to watch at times, especially if he faces a striker who is similarly patient or overly cautious. Tuivasa is not that kind of fighter that’s going to settle for a staring contest though and so he’ll take the fight to him in search of a finish, and I think that may well set him up to be caught by the counter-strikes Rozenstruik is waiting to unleash. Given the firepower on display either man could find a finish at the drop of a hat, but I’ll take Rozenstruik to find the target cleanly first for a first round KO victory.

Prediction: Jairzino Rozenstruik to win by KO in Rd1.

Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates Prediction

Li Jingliang has been alternating between wins and losses in his last six fights and coming off a split-decision loss will now take on Carlos Prates, who has won both his UFC fights so far by way of knockout.

The 36-year-old Jingliang’s last fight was almost two years ago due to suffering what turns out to have been the 2nd spine injury of his career. He claims to be fully healed now, but of course we’ll have to wait and see how he looks on Saturday night. Jingliang is a rugged and aggressive striker who isn’t necessarily the most technical and can be guilty of loading up too much on his punches at times, but does have an end product to show for it as he’s finished 7 of his 11 UFC wins via strikes. He has solid leg and body kicks too and is very durable, having never been stopped by strikes in his career. Jingliang is also a good wrestler and can grapple if his spine is still up to it, and he has good ground-and-pound too.

The 30-year-old Prates is only an inch taller than Jingliang, but has a sizeable 7″ reach advantage here. He’ll make good use of that as he’s a dangerous sniper on the feet who is willing to wait for his opportunity to land speedy punches as well as kicks with both power and precision and is good at exploiting holes in his opponent’s defense. And his finishing rate is impressive, with his last eight fights ending via strikes, including two in the UFC and one on the Contender Series.

On the feet I do like Prates here as he has a good style to punish Jingliang for his less polished and more reckless approach, while the Chinese fighter’s long lay-off and spine injury also leaves question marks about whether he can change things up and implement a more wrestle-heavy approach instead. Jingliang’s sturdy chin could keep him in the fight, but I’ll take Prates to gradually dismantle him over time with his sharp striking to win by TKO in the 2nd round.

Prediction: Carlos Prates to win by TKO in Rd2.

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