UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
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UFC 317 Predictions
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Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira Prediction
The undefeated Ilia Topuria vacated the featherweight title earlier this year in order to take on a new challenge at lightweight and immediately fights for the vacant title against former champion Charles Oliveira, who is coming off a convincing decision win over Michael Chandler last November.
This won’t be the 28-year-old Topuria’s first fight at 155lbs as he actually agreed to a short-notice bout against Jai Herbert back in 2022. Interestingly, that fight didn’t go all his own way, as it took him time to adjust to Herbert’s tall, rangey frame, which led to him being dropped by a head kick in the opening round, though he soon adjusted and emerged with a big KO finish in the second round. It’s a reminder though that he’s not going to have size on his side at 155lbs, and so Oliviera will have a 3″ height and 5″ reach advantage. However, Topuria has clearly proven to be a special talent with a very strong all-round skill-set and little in the way of obvious weaknesses. On the feet he is fast, fluid and clinical with his delivery, but he also has high fight IQ, which enables him to calmly read his opponents and then show great timing when it comes to exploiting openings and angles of attack. And those attributes, combined with his natural power, has led to even all-time featherweight greats like Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway having been knocked out by him. And that’s only one side to Topuria’s game as he is also a very competent wrestler and highly-skilled grappler, who actually started out his career winning seven fights in a row via submission and is very confident in his ability there.
The 35-year-old Oliveira has been an absolute finishing machine during his UFC career, and in fact currently holds the record for most stoppage victories (20). At his core he’s an absolutely lethal submission specialist who thrives on hunting for a way to end the fight on the mat, relishing scrambling opportunities and effortlessly chaining submission attempts together, leading him to another UFC record of 16 submission stoppages in total. Oliveira isn’t just a menace on the mat though as over the years he’s also developed an increasingly dangerous muay thai striking game too that continues to demonstrate his creative mindset with dynamic, versatile offense and surprisingly respectable power. Oliveira isn’t without his flaws though, as his constant pursuit of a win can result in defensive lapses, which did lead to him being stopped by both strikes and submissions earlier in his UFC run. However, Oliveira did then go on an 11-fight winning streak, and has only lost once inside the distance in the last 7 years. That being said, he had to show impressive powers of recovery to fight through bad moments numerous times during that period, and it does feel like it could be only a matter of time before that becomes a bigger problem.
This is a fantastic fight that feels destined to provide fireworks for as long as it lasts. Oliviera will be a major threat wherever the fight goes and has the size advantage too. However, Topuria exudes confidence for a reason as he really is the fully package as an MMA fighter and is capable of mixing things up with the BJJ wizard on the mat, while undoubtedly being the more devastating striker on the feet. Importantly he’s also the more cold, calculated and clinical of the two, and I think that will serve him well when faced with Oliveira’s more frenzied style, enabling him to pick his moment to find openings to hurt him on the feet and secure a 2nd round TKO finish.
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Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France Prediction
Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja is on a seven-fight winning streak that includes three successful defenses of the title, and he’ll look to add to that on Saturday night against Kai Kara-France, who is coming off a 1st round TKO victory against Steve Erceg last year.
All the way back in 2016, Pantoja beat Kara-France by unanimous decision in the quarter-finals of TUF 24, and he’ll now look to add him to the list of fighters he’s beaten more than once, including current No.1 contender Brandon Moreno (three times) and No.2 contender Brandon Royval (twice). Pantoja is a well-rounded fighter who poses a problem for his opponents wherever the fight goes. On the feet the 35-year-old is a battling fighter who pushes the pace and applies pressure with his aggressive boxing flurries at close range. It’s not the most refined approach for a long-standing champion, but he has a knack for coming out on top, undoubtedly aided by his toughness and strong chin, having still never been finished 18 years into his career. Perhaps part of the key to that is that he can also quickly switch things up by going for takedowns thanks to his assured wrestling game, and on the mat he’s a skilled grappler and scrambler with good control and back takes, together with a tried-and-tested rear-naked choke finish. Pantoja can appear to be tiring at times due to the high pace he sets, but he’s always been able to fight through it.
The 32-year-old Kara-France’s latest victory was a confidence-booster as he’d been going through a tough period beforehand, having lost to both Brandon Moreno (in an interim title fight) and Amir Albazi, followed by suffering a bad concussion in training that forced him to take a year out to recover. That was a real concern given that striking is his stock-in-trade, but Kara-France has shown mental toughness to bounce back from adversity in the past as just a few fights into his MMA career he was KO’d in back-to-back fights, but pushed on regardless and didn’t get stopped again via strikes for a full decade. Kara-France is at his best when on the attack as he’s a talented striker with very good speed and shot selection who pushes the pace with his crisp, accurate boxing and solid kicks to the legs and midsection, while always staying mobile. Kara-France isn’t as effective on the mat, but he does have well-versed takedown defense, and though he’s been submitted a few times he can generally keep himself out of harms-way when required.
Pantoja has been fighting for a very long time now, so there’s always a risk that his impressive durability starts to fade, particularly as his combative style does often put him in the firing line. For now though he’s still performing very well, and though Kara-France’s speed and power present risks, Pantoja’s ability to transition quickly from striking at close quarters to shooting for takedowns, together with having a big advantage in the wrestling and submission departments, should enable him to come out on top here with a third round submission victory.
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Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van Prediction
Brandon Royval has racked up two split-decision wins since an unsuccessful flyweight title challenge in 2023 and had been expected to fight Manel Kape on this card until his opponent withdrew due to an injury. Instead he’ll go up against Joshua Van, who comes in on a few weeks notice riding a four-fight winning streak.
While he’s tried to tone it down a little lately, the 32-year-old Royval generally has a high-tempo, attack-minded and creative approach that sees him always giving his opponent something to think about with his diverse and unpredictable arsenal of high-volume strikes. His cardio enables him to maintain that output from start to finish, but he isn’t always the most acccurate with his shot selection. His attack-minded approach continues on the mat as he welcomes any chance to engage in scrambles while frequently hunting for potential submission finishes. Despite his aggression, Royval doesn’t have all that many finishes via strikes, but he has a higher hit-rate via submission stoppages, and overall has finished 13 of his 17 career wins inside the distance. And despite being reckless at times and leaving himself open to being hit he’s only ever been finished once each by strikes and submission. He’s had mixed results when he’s gone to the scorecards though, with five wins and four defeats.
While he’s still only being 23-years-old, Van has already amassed a 14-2 career record, including a 7-1 stint during his two-years in the UFC. Van will be at a 4″ height and 3″ disadvantage here, but that shouldn’t hold him back too much as even at this age it’s clear to see he’s a talented fighter and a fast-learner with a high potential ceiling in the sport. Van is a skilled, athletic striker with a youthful exuberance and confidence that’s evident in his high-output style that ramps up over the course of his fights. He’s a very sharp, calculated boxer with real speed and accuracy as he works to the head and body, and he will mix in kicks and knees too. Van has also showing promising signs of good offensively wrestling ability and has very solid takedown defense, together with improving grappling and excellent cardio.
Van isn’t always the fastest starter and is hittable, so that could play well for Royval here, not to mention that he’s also fighting for the 2nd time in just 3 weeks. However, Van only gets better as the fight goes on and can match his opponent’s intensity and strike-rate over the course of a fight, while being more clinical in his approach. So I’ll take the rising prospect to firmly put himself on the map by earning his biggest win yet on the scorecards.
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Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano Prediction
Beneil Dariush’s last two fights both ended in 1st round losses via strikes, and now he goes up against Renato Moicano, whose four-fight winning streak came to an end with a 1st round submission loss to Islam Makhachev at UFC 311 in January.
This fight was actually supposed to happen at UFC 311 until Moicano was pushed up as a short-notice replacement to fight Makhachev instead, and so our original prediction still remains largely the same here. The 35-year-old Dariush has previously indicated that a loss to Moicano could signal the end of his career given how things have gone for him in the Octagon lately. Dariush has been through tough times before as he suffered two nasty KO losses in 2017-2018 that led to concerns that his chin was gone, before rebounding with an eight-fight winning streak. However, being finished by both Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan in less than a round in 2023 resurfaced those old concerns, and when it emerged he’d also suffered a further KO and a couple of knockdowns in training that year too it was clear an extended lay-off was required. Dariush has duly obliged, and hopefully his durability has improved after a much-needed 18 month absence as there’s no doubt he’s a talented fighter. His ground game in particular is impressive, with good takedowns, very strong control on top, and the kind of composure that comes from having elite-level grappling ability. Chin-issues aside, Dariush is also a solid striker too who wields notable knockout power in his punches.
The 36-year-old Moicano may have lost to Makhachev at the start of the year on a days notice, but before that he was enjoying the best form of his UFC career, racking up four big wins over Brad Riddell, Drew Dober, Jalin Turner, and most recently Benoit Saint Denis to break into the lightweight top 10. Interestingly, it was only a few years ago that there was also question marks over Moicano’s chin after he was finished three times by strikes between 2019 and 2020. He’s managed to put that behind him though in the years since and has since become a ruthless finisher in his own right, with five of his last six fights ending by either strikes or submission. His BJJ ability is particularly well-honed and he’s adept at taking opponents backs and finding chokes. He also has good striking technique too though, particularly with punches and kicks from range.
Despite Moicano generally being in good form in recent years I’ve had a feeling for a while that he could have a similar downward spiral as Dariush in the near future due to a suspicion that his former chin-issues could come back to haunt him. Dariush certainly has the power to test that theory, and he’s also accomplished enough on the mat to hold his own there too. So, while I must admit I really do fear for just how badly Dariush’s durability might be compromised at this stage, I still feel he’s the better fighter of the two overall and will make use of his power advantage to earn a TKO finish mid-way through the fight.
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Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima Prediction
Payton Talbott’s three-fight winning start to his UFC run ended with a decision loss to Raoni Barcelos back in January, and now he’ll attempt to bounce back against Felipe Lima, who has won both his fights in the Octagon since joining a year ago.
The 26-year-old Talbott had been tipped as a future star since arriving from the Contender Series in 2023, and certainly looked the part during his initial winning run in the UFC, which saw him submit Nick Aguirre, TKO Cameron Saaiman and then KO Yanis Ghemmouri in just 19 seconds. Tall and lanky for a bantamweight, Talbott’s knack for delivering remarkably high-volume, diverse striking while still maintaining impressive accuracy and solid power has proven very challenging for his opponents to live with, resulting in eight of his nine wins coming inside the distance. Even before his last fight there was signs of things he still needs to work on though as he tends to use offense as his first line of defense, which leads to him getting hit more than he should, and also leaves him vulnerable to takedowns too. Crafty, well-rounded veteran Barcelos took advantage of that at the start of the year as he was able to take Talbott down repeatedly and control him for long periods, as well as mixing it up with him on the feet too. It was a clear setback for Talbott, but also a good learning experience, and going forward we’ll see if he’s now able to make adjustments, or if that’ll become an Achilles Heel for others to exploit.
The 27-year-old Lima’s only career loss came in his pro-debut, and he’s since gone the best part of a decade undefeated, including two solid wins since joining the UFC, taking his career record to 14-1. Lima is a well-rounded fighter with a fast-paced, forward-pressing style. He’s quick and athletic on the feet with good technique, though he’s not got the biggest finishing power. However, Lima can also wrestle to set up his good grappling ability, offering him multiple avenues to victory.
Talbott’s is clearly a real talent and his style is very entertaining, but it’s going to be challenging for him to retain his attacking pressure and intensity while also successfully shoring up his takedown defense. And that’s why I think this will prove to be another tricky stylistic match-up for him, as like Barceos, Lima can operate on the feet when required, but most importantly has the tools to win the ground battle, and I think that’ll lead him to a decision win here.
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UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Prelims
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(Predicted winners in bold)
Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Hyder Amil vs. Jose Miguel Delgado
Viviane Araújo vs. Tracy Cortez
Terrance McKinney vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Sedriques Dumas vs. Jackson McVey
Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines
Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith
