UFC On ESPN 69: Usman vs. Buckley takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
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UFC On ESPN 69 Predictions
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Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley
Former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman is in unfamiliar territory heading into this main event match-up as he’s now lost three fights in a row. He will now seek to end that slump against the in-form Joaquin Buckley, who is on a six-fight winning streak.
While Usman’s recent results are disappointing it’s worth pointing out that aside from the infamous last-minute head kick KO loss he suffered against Leon Edwards back in 2022, his other two losses have been much closer. He only lost out by majority decision to Edwards in their rematch the following year, and then had another majority decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev up at 185lbs later that year. However, at 38-years-old with bad knees and coming back after a 20-month layoff, it’s safe to say that Usman is no longer at the peak of his powers. Still, there’s a long way to fall when you reached the heights Usman has in his career, going 20-1 prior to his slump, including five successful title defenses, and so his talent and experience still enable him to be competitive. At his best he was a dominant wrestler and clinch-fighter who also had solid striking fundamentals and exceptional cardio that enabled him to wilt his opponents with volume rather than all-out power. His dodgy knees means we see less wrestling and kicks from him these days though, while despite generally having been very durable, he has had a tendency to get hurt more in recent fights.
At 31-years-old Buckley is firmly in his prime years and riding a wave of momentum. A muscular physical specimen, Buckley first burst onto the UFC scene in impressive fashion, demonstrating devastating knockout power in both his punches and kicks, including that stunning viral spinning back kick KO finish in 2020. Buckley’s style was flawed though and so was picking up the occasional loss too. He could easily have just settled for being an entertaining, explosive striker who would alternate between wins and losses but stick around regardless because of his highlight-reel finishing ability. Instead, he looked to address his weaknesses, starting to pace himself more effectively in case he didn’t stop his opponent early, while also developing a respectable wrestling game too. And that’s paid off as he’s still a dangerous striker, but can also best opponents over three rounds too, and as such has managed to beat the likes of Colby Covington, Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque in the past year or so.
Buckley has never had to go five rounds before, and Usman may well see that as an avenue to victory here if he can use his years of experience to emerge unscathed in the early rounds and then wear out Buckley later in the fight. I’m not convinced he’ll be able to do so though as Buckley is faster, much harder hitting and more versatile with his offense, while at the same time not overdoing his strikes to the point it gasses him out. I think he can punish Usman’s legs early in the fight, and given that the veteran isn’t as durable as he once was I feel like Buckley will eventually find a home for a finishing blow to win by TKO in the 3rd round.
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Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick Prediction
Former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas saw her title hopes at flyweight dashed by a decision loss to Erin Blanchfield last time out, but she’s not given up that aspiration as she stays in the division for her next fight against Miranda Maverick, who is on a four-fight winning streak.
Namajunas was just 22-years-old when she first arrived in the UFC, so her career has unfolded before us over the past 10+ years. And she was a fighter who clearly developed in those early years of being in the Octagon, evolving from being a feisty submission hunter at first to becoming a more patient, slick and clinical volume striker with sharp counters, footwork and a better sense of strategy, unlocking the door to becoming a champion on two separate occasions in the process. Since losing the belt for a 2nd time in a rematch with Carla Esparza in 2022 there’s been a sense that she’s started to lose some of her former spark. A move up to 125lbs in particular doesn’t appear to have been particularly beneficial as she can be at a disadvantage in terms of physicality and power at times, while her striking style has become more cautious than calculated these days, and she just doesn’t seem as focused and determined as she once was. She’s still skilled enough to win against some notable flyweight opponents, but it’s proven harder to do so against the top talents in the division.
The 27-year-old Maverick has had some ups and downs over her four-and-a-half year run in the UFC, but has managed to become more consistent in recent times. That being said, none of the opponents she’s beaten during her winning streak are currently ranked in the division, so this is a major step up in competition for her. Maverick is 2″ shorter than Namajunas, but she’s quite physically strong and can work effectively from the clinch, and she has good wrestling ability. She’s also a keen grappler who has racked up 7 submission wins from 15 career victories, but she’s not really a finishing threat on the feet. It’s a set of skills that has taken her to 8-3 in the UFC so far, but the running theme is that she does tend to come off second-best when going up against more challenging opposition.
There are some concerns about both the physicality and mentality of Namajunas these days during her flyweight campaign, but I do think this is the kind of fight where she will still prove to be a step ahead of Maverick in terms of her striking technique, and, if required, craftier grappling. It might prove to be another less than thrilling performance, but I expect Namajunas to win by decision.
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Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Petroski Prediction
Edmen Shahbazyan got his 2025 campaign off to a good start with a first round TKO victory back in February and now squares up to Andre Petroski, who is on a three-fight winning streak.
The 27-year-old Shahbazyan has been stuck in a habit of win-one, lose-one for the past few years now. That’s perhaps not surprising given that despite entering the UFC with some promising potential at a relatively young age, it’s never really felt like he’s been able to evolve and shore up the weaker aspects of his game. As such, while he is still an imposing striker who has the power and technique to stop opponents with his punches, elbows and kicks, if he’s unable to find that finish in the first half of the fight, he tends to run out of steam and that leaves him vulnerable to being finished later on. Literally all but one of his 19 career fights so far fit precisely into this pattern, including no less than 12 of his wins coming in the first round, and all five of his losses being beyond the mid-way point of the bout. Technically he’s still young enough to figure things out, but the body of evidence suggests that’s not the most likely outcome.
The 33-year-old Petroski is on a solid run of form and has a very respectable 8-2 record overall in the Octagon so far. A physically strong fighter, Petroski has a good wrestling base to work from and has managed to develop other aspects of his game over the years to become fairly well-rounded. Petroski likes to grapple, and did find a couple of submission wins earlier in his UFC run, though not so much recently. Meanwhile he’s also worked to become a more competent striker, but back-to-back TKO losses a couple of years ago were a cause for concern.
There is a caveat to Shahbazyan’s record in that his losses do tend to come when he takes a step up in competition, suggesting there’s a ceiling he struggles to break though. And that’s interesting here as there’s a debate to be had as to whether the also unranked Petroski fits into that category. Petroski’s durability and striking defense could be weaknesses that Shahbazyan can exploit early in the fight, but it’s likely he commits to his wrestling game from the start to avoid that early onslaught and wear on his opponent’s cardio. It could go either way here, but I think Petroski’s strategy will prove to be effective, enabling him to then submit his tiring opponent late in the second round.
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Cody Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos Prediction
Cody Garbrandt hasn’t fought since his submission loss to Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 300 back in April of last year, but now he returns to fight Roani Barcelos, who is coming off back-to-back victories.
We’re now over 8 years removed from Garbrandt’s heyday, when he looked like a world-beater while defeating Dominick Cruz to win the bantamweight title. Despite being a young man at the time with his prime years still in front of him, Garbrandt’s decline was remarkably rapid after that, being finished by strikes in his next three fights. And it’s not got much better in years since as in total he’s only gone 3-6 since holding the belt, and in addition to some of his brutal stoppage defeats he’s also lost a lot of time along the way due to injuries and other ailments. As such at 33-years-old Garbrandt feels like he’s far removed from his best, no longer as nimble and active on the feet, and with his durability being a constant concern. That being said, he is certainly still a talented fighter offensively and a proven heavy hitter who does still retain some of his old explosiveness, while he can also wrestle too.
Barcelos is really getting up there in years now at 38, and it’s only a couple of years ago that the veteran looked like he was on his way out after going through a spell where he lost four out of five fights. Barcelos has managed to turn things around though, and becoming the first fighter to defeat the much-hyped up-and-coming prospect Payton Talbett in January proved he’s not over-the-hill yet. Barcelos is a well-rounded fighter who has fought at a high-and-furious tempo in the past, but these days tends to paces himself more. He’s not as fast as he once was either, but he’s still athletic and skilled enough to be tricky to deal with on the feet, while also doing a nice job of transitioning smoothly into takedown attempts. And on the mat, despite not having many submission wins to his name, he is also a skilled grappler with good ground-and-pound.
Garbrandt’s power always gives him a chance in a fight, but though Barcelos is five years older than him he still feels the more durable of the two, and with his more versatile approach and better mat work in particular I think he can gain the upper-hand here and emerge with a decision victory.
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Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Cody Brundage Prediction
Contender Series recruit Mansur Abdul-Malik has won both his UFC fight so far to extend his unbeaten career record to 8-0, and now he goes up against Cody Brundage, who has earned a win and a no-contest on his record over the past 12 months.
Abdul-Malik is a big, athletic middleweight who has a solid wrestling background from his college days. However, the 27-year-old likes to let his hands fly on the feet, and while his technique still requires some polish he has proven to have a good combination of power and speed, and is aided by a 79″ reach that’ll give him an extra 7” over his opponent. And when he does decide to work a takedown he’s also capable of delivering thumping ground-and-pound too. As a result, all eight of Abdul-Malik’s wins so far have been via stoppage, though that does mean that he’s yet to experience a fight that goes beyond the second round.
The fact that the 31-year-old Brundage has only lost once in his last five fights sounds fairly solid, but less so when you consider that includes one win and one no-contest that both resulted from him being illegally struck to the back of the head. Like his opponent, Brundage also has a wrestling base, though that tends to only work against a certain level of opposition. Brundage generally prefers to strike anyway, sticking to the basics and leaning more on his natural power than refined technique to make the difference. Brundage isn’t the best defensively and can be hurt, while on the mat he is able to work for submission, but can also struggle off his back.
While there’s some similarities in their styles, the younger, fresher Abdul-Malik feels like the bigger, better and more dangerous fighter of the two here, and I could see him hurting Brundage on the feet and finishing him with ground-and-pound on the mat by the second round.
Alonzo Menifield vs. Oumar Sy Prediction
After two KO losses in a row last year, Alonzo Menifield will have been relieved to secure a split-decision win in his first fight of 2025 and now attempts to build on that against the undefeated Oumar Sy, who has won both his UFC fight so far to go 11-0 overall.
Those two knockout defeats in 2024 looked ominous for the 37-year-old Menifield, but fate was kinder to him back in March when he was originally scheduled to face Sy, only for an injury to lead him to going up against a short-notice debuting fighter Julius Walker instead. The fact Menifield only scraped by with a split-decision win doesn’t inspire a great deal of confidence now that he finds himself matched up against Sy again though. A stocky, muscular middleweight, Menifield used to apply more pressure in pursuit of a finish via his very heavy hands and solid kicks, while he could also threaten with mean ground-and-pound and an occasional submission finish. He still has those attributes today, but given his age and suspect cardio he tends to fight at a more measured pace now. Even so, he did start to tire later on in his fight with Walker last time out. And though he went the full three rounds on that occasion, durability is still a real concern for Menifield nowadays, which wasn’t the case earlier in his career.
The 29-year-old Sy is a very big middleweight at 6ft 4″ with a whopping 83″ reach, handing him an extra 4″ in height and 7″ in reach over Menifield. His striking ability is solid, though perhaps not as deadly as you might expect given his size and athleticism. However, Sy is a good wrestler and grappler too, while also having solid takedown defense, making him a well-rounded fighter who is comfortable wherever the fight goes.
It’ll be interesting to see how Menifield’s chin holds up here. I’d fear for him against a more aggressive heavy-hitter in that regard, but I think Sy’s versatile skill-set is likely to see him mix up his approach rather than going all-out for a stoppage here, and so I’ll take Sy to win by decision instead.
UFC On ESPN 69 Prelims
(Predicted winners in bold)
Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Michael Chiesa vs. Court McGee
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Kris Moutinho
Cody Durden vs. Jose Ochoa
Ricky Simón vs. Cameron Smotherman
Philip Rowe vs. Ange Loosa
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
