UFC Fight Night 254 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, United States and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
UFC Fight Night 254 Predictions
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Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze Prediction
This is a rematch of a 2023 fight that saw Marvin Vettori win by unanimous decision. Since then Vettori has only fought once, suffering a unanimous decision loss to Jared Cannonier, with a shoulder injury then keeping him sidelined last year. Meanwhile, Roman Dolidze has been more active, shaking off a subsequent loss to Nassourdine Imavov courtesy of back-to-back wins against Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland last year.
It’s not really clear why there was a big need to run this one back, though it was a reasonably closely contested striking battle, and it’ll be a five-rounder this time around. Vettori often tries to bully opponents in the Octagon, but it was Dolidze who attempted to apply constant pressure in that first fight two years ago, and in the first round in particular he was troubling him with his power punches. Vettori is known for his hard-nosed durability however, so he was able to withstand that early onslaught and grew into the fight as it went on, aided by Dolidze’s output and power tapering off over time. In addition to his cardio advantage, Vettori also made good use of hard leg kicks, helping him stay more active on his way to a win on the scorecards.
Having five rounds to work this time would seem to favor the 31-year-old Vettori, who has deeper energy reserves and a lot of experience pushing a hard pace for 25 minutes. That being said, he’s been out of action for over 18 months with a troublesome shoulder injury that required surgery, so there’s always the risk of ring-rust. As for Dolidze, the longer distance means he might come out a little less aggressive in the opening round, and while that could take away some of his initial finishing threat, it may help him to stay more competitive in the rounds that follow. One thing we didn’t really see from either man last time out was a takedown threat, despite Vettori being able to wrestle and having a respectable submission game, while Dolidze is also capable in both regards and is the naturally bigger of the two.
In the end I think we’ll have another close fight, but one in which Vettori has already proved he’s tough enough to survive Dolidze’s biggest power punches, but will now have an extra two rounds to reinforce the fact that he also has the bigger gas tank and more consistent work-rate, leading him to another decision victory.
Prediction: Marvin Vettori to win by decision.
Chidi Njkokuani vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Prediction
After having previously lost three fights in a row, Chidi Njokuani got back on track in 2024 with two victories and now looks to continue to build on that momentum against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, who went 1-1 last year.
The 36-year-old Njokuani’s uptick in form coincides with a decision to move back down to 170lbs after a long run at 185lbs. That was a surprising move given that at 6ft 3″ and with an 80″ reach he’s very big for the division and had been forced to move up in 2017 after repeated weight-cut failures. He seems to have had that in check so far during his return to 170lbs however, and as such he’s able to reap the benefits of his size, including having a 4″ height and 7″ reach advantage over his opponent on Saturday night. And Njokuani’s long limbs help accentuate his explosive muay thai striking ability, bringing finishing ability from all eight limbs at both short and long range, while he also works well in the clinch. Njokuani carries his power deep in to his fights, is decent on the mat and has a good record on the scorecards, including decision wins in his last two fights. Durability is a potential concern for him though given that he was TKO’d both in 2022 and 2023.
The 38-year-old Zaleski dos Santos is also a dynamic striker who comes from a capoeira background and as such is capable of eye-catching, acrobatic techniques, including knocking out Sean Strickland with a wheel kick all the way back in 2018. Despite that flair for flashy finishes and having knockout power, Zaleski isn’t reckless and will make effective use of more fundamental techniques too, including solid low kicks, which together with having a respectable grappling game if required and dependable durability has helped him compile a solid 11-4-1 run in the UFC so far.
These two veterans are both dangerous strikers who have the potential to finish each other on the feet, but can also remain competitive if the fight goes the full 15 minutes. Njokuani has the size advantage and is building momentum at 170lbs, while Zaleski dos Santos is older but has better durability and possibly the edge on the mat too. I’m torn on the pick, but I’ll say that the wily dos Santos makes effective use of leg kicks and also manages to hurt Njokuani at some stage in the fight, before settling for a closely fought decision win.
Prediction: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos to win by decision.
Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh Prediction
After having lost four of his previous five fights, Alexander Hernandez got a much needed split-decision win last time out and now fights Kurt Holobaugh, who has gone 2-1 since rejoining the promotion in 2023.
The 32-year-old Hernandez started off his UFC run back in 2018 with back-to-back wins, but surprisingly has never strung more than a single win together in the years since as he’s bounced between victory and defeat numerous times during an overall 7-7 run in the Octagon. He does hold notable wins over the likes of Beneil Dariush, Francisco Trinaldo and Jim Miller though, which suggests that he might be capable of more than he’s delivered. Hernandez is a physically strong lightweight with good boxing ability and punching power, solid kicks and capable wrestling. Cardio and pacing issues have been a problem for him at times though, with his early exertions tending to take a toll on him later in his fights.
Holobaugh’s two previous stints in the UFC didn’t go well at all, having been given the boot after a debut defeat first time around all the way back in 2013, before going on to lose all three of his fights upon his eventual return in 2018. Former UFC fighters being cast on TUF Season 31 in 2023 gave him another chance though and he seized it by winning the show, and he’s finally got a couple of wins under his belt in the Octagon. The only catch is that it’s taken him until he’s 38-years-old to finally get somewhere in the UFC. Holobaugh likes to push the pace with high output boxing, working well to the head and body, and he has a 2″ height and 3.5″ reach advantage here. He also has good grappling and has 10 submission wins from 21 career victories. Holobaugh has his flaws though as he’s quite hittable on the feet, can be taken down and is too willing to work from his back on the mat, even when it’s not going his way.
It’s hard to be confident in picking either fighter here, but regardless of who wins it should be a close fight that will will probably go to a decision. Hernandez has a habit of underachieving and it’s possible he’ll get outworked late in the fight by Holobaugh, but I think before that he’ll have the more impactful striking of the two, and by mixing in some wrestling too I’ll say he edges out a narrow win on the scorecards.
Prediction: Alexander Hernandez to win by decision.
Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson Prediction
Da’Mon Blackshear’s UFC run so far has been a mixed bag, going 3-3-1, but he is coming off a win as he gets set to fight Cody Gibson, who started off his 2nd stint in the Octagon with two defeats, but has since rebounded with back-to-back wins.
The 30-year-old Blackshear has had an eventful time in the Octagon so far, starting with what in hindsight has turned out to be a respectable majority draw in his debut against Youssef Zalal, who has gone on to compile a seven-fight winning streak. Blackshear then made the questionable decision to take on four fights in the space of 6 months. He only went 2-2 during that period, but did pull off a rare ‘Twister’ submission finish and a TKO win along the way. Last year started badly with a KO loss, but he’s since rebounded with a good submission win against Cody Stamann. Blackshear is athletic and is at his best on the mat with his blend of wrestling and skilled grappling that’s led to 10 submission finishes from 15 career wins, but he’s a respectable striker too and has good speed.
Gibson first arrived in the UFC over a decade ago in 2014, but only mustered a 1-3 run against a challenging line-up of opponents before being released. A 7-2 record on the regional circuit then granted him a chance to compete on TUF 31, where he reached the bantamweight final and was subsequently re-signed by the UFC. On the feet Gibson will be at a speed disadvantage here, but he’ll look to make up for that with his pressure and active offense, while he can also change things up by mixing in his solid wrestling. Gibson is also a threat via submissions, though he has also been finished via subs a few times over the years too.
I think Blackshear will benefit from being the more athletic fighter on the feet here, but it’s his slicker grappling game that will ultimately lead him to a 2nd round submission finish.
Prediction: Da’Mon Blackshear to win by submission in Rd2.
Brendson Ribeiro vs. Diyar Nurgozhay Prediction
Brendson Ribeiro lost his first two fights in the UFC, but has since picked up his first victory and now takes on the undefeated Diyar Nurgozhay, who arrives after a KO win on the Contender Series that took his career record to 10-0.
The 28-year-old Ribeiro stands 6ft 3″ tall with an unusually long 81″ reach, which is 7″ more than his opponent. He has an aggressive fighter who is always in pursuit of a finish, but at the same time also leaves himself open to being stopped too, resulting in only 3 of his 23 fights making it to the final bell. Clearly Ribeiro has big power that can end fights quickly and his reach enables him to strike well from range. However, he does have a tendency to brawl at closer quarters and his questionable defense has taken a toll on his durability, having been KO’d twice and TKO’d once in the past three years. That being said, he might yet change his ways as his last two fights have gone the distance as he attempts to fight a bit less recklessly, while he can mix in some wrestling to change things up and is a submission threat.
The 27-year-old Nurgozhay is a cautious but calculated counter-striker who has good technique, and despite not having the highest output does possess finishing power in both his punches and kicks when he lets them fly. He also has solid takedown defense to keep the fight upright, but did pick up a couple of submissions earlier in his career and has the option of going for the occasional opportunistic takedown.
I think Nurgozhay’s counter-striking style should play well here against the more aggressive, but hittable Ribeiro, leading the newcomer to a 2nd round TKO finish.
Prediction: Diyar Nurgozhay to win by TKO in Rd2
Seung-woo Choi vs. Kevin Vallejos Prediction
Seung-Woo Choi is in real need of a win after losing four of his last five fights, and to do so he”ll need to get the better of the debuting Kevin Vallejos, who arrives from the Contender Series with a 14-1 career record.
The 32-year-old Choi comes from a muay thai background and won the bronze medal while representing South Korea at the Muay Thai World Championships back in 2010. He transitioned to MMA a few years later and eventually found his way to the UFC, where he’s only managed a 4-6 run so far. Choi is a tall featherweight who will hold a 4″ height and 6″ reach advantage over Vallejos on Saturday night. As you might expect then he likes to operate from range, and tends to bide his time waiting for openings to strike or land on the counter with solid power, but he’s also comfortable in the clinch. Despite his size Choi can be hit and hurt, and his durability is now a real concern for him, with two of his last three fights ending via losses to first round strikes, while he’s also been submitted a couple of times during his UFC run too.
Vallejos is only 23, but has a good amount of experience under his belt fighting in his native Argentina before arriving the Octagon. He actually first tried to fight his way into the UFC via the Contender Series in 2023, but lost by unanimous decision to Jean Silva – a loss that has aged well given that Silva has since become a highly-regarded talent in the promotion. Vallejos then earned a 1st round TKO win in his 2nd Contenders appearance last September and now gets to show what he can do on the big stage. Vallejos works well to the head and body with his crisp, compact boxing and has shown his power by claiming 10 victories via strikes from 14 wins so far. He kicks solidly too and is not afraid to go to the mat at times.
Vallejos may not yet have had a chance to prove himself in the UFC, but given that Choi’s struggling to keep his head above water in the Octagon at the moment and has become more vulnerable to strikes I think that the newcomer has what it takes to rack up a first round TKO finish here.
Prediction: Kevin Vallejos to win by TKO in Rd1
Check UFC Offers!UFC Fight Night 254 Prelims
(Predicted winners in bold)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann
Stephanie Luciano vs. Sam Hughes
You Su-young vs. AJ Cunningham
Carlos Vera vs. Josias Musasa
Daniel Barez vs. André Lima
Josiane Nunes vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Evan Elder vs. MarQuel Mederos
Yuneisy Duben vs. Carli Judice
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