314 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
UFC 314 Predictions
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Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Prediction
Alexander Volkanovski returns from a 14-month lay-off following back-to-back KO losses to fight for the vacant featherweight title against Diego Lopes, who has compiled a five-fight winning streak over the past couple of years.
It wasn’t that long ago that ex-145lb champ Volkanovski seemed virtually indestructible in the division that made him a star, going unbeaten in 13 fights, making five successful defenses of the belt and beating the likes of Max Holloway (x3), Jose Aldo, Brian Ortega, Chad Mendes and Yair Rodriguez along the way. Volkanovski’s robust, finely-tuned striking game had a big role to play in that. He’s never been the hardest hitter or the biggest physically, but he proved he could go toe-to-toe with the best with his finely tuned technique and very good fight IQ, staying compact, managing distance well and setting up his strikes smartly with excellent timing, all while pushing a tireless pace. Throw in good wrestling, strong takedown defense and an assured grappling game when required and you’ve got a fighter who proved to be very hard to beat over the years.
A short-notice move up to 155lbs to challenge it’s champion Islam Makhachev didn’t work out for Volkanovski though, with the bigger man KO’ing him for the first time in his career, and the cracks quickly began to show after that as he publicly pleaded with the UFC to keep him busy. That rush to get back in the Octagon proved to be ill-fated as Ilia Topuria KO’d him just a few months later, and whether he liked it or not that led him to a very long lay-off due to fears he’d taken too much damage in a short space of time. It was the right decision, but it remains to be seen how much of a toll those losses have taken on his durability. And given that his game relies a lot on speed, timing and reactions, the fact he’s now beyond his prime years and is coming off a long time on the sidelines is a real concern.
The 30-year-old Lopes initially arrived in the UFC as a late replacement against Movsar Evloev almost two years ago, and though he would eventually lose by unanimous decision his performance that night impressed everyone, giving his undefeated opponent a torrid time in the early rounds. He then proved that wasn’t a fluke by going on his current winning streak, beating respected opponents like Brian Ortega, Sodiq Yussuf and Dan Ige along the way. Lopes always brings his A-game and will have a 5″ height advantage here, though only an extra inch in reach. He likes to apply constant pressure and blends good accuracy with power on the feet, while he maintains his drive on the mat too with an aggressive submission game that’ll see him chain attempts together smoothly in search of a finish. And it’s a skill-set that’s delivered results as 22 of his 26 career wins have come inside the distance, with 12 of those via submission.
This is a fascinating fight between two very talented, industrious fighters. We’ve seen in the past how some stars form can suddenly fall off a cliff after a long winning streak ends and their aura of invincibility evaporates, and if that’s the case with Volkanovski then Lopes is absolutely the kind of high-intensity fighter who will take full advantage of that. That being said, it took two of the very best fighters in the sport to finally defeat Volkanovski, and having sensibly taken time to regroup afterwards I’m willing to give the Aussie ace the benefit of the doubt here. He still remains a high-level technician on the feet who can outstrike and outsmart Lopes, while also being able to shut down his hopes of getting the fight to the mat with his takedown defense, so I’ll say he gets back on track with a win on the scorecards here.
Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision.
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction
Michael Chandler’s only fight in the last two years was a unanimous loss to Charles Oliveira last November. On Saturday he’ll fight in the co-main event against Paddy Pimblett, who is six fights undefeated since joining the UFC in 2021, including a submission win over Bobby Green in his only appearance in 2024.
Despite his star status in the UFC, Michael Chandler has actually lost four of his six fights in the promotion so far, with his last win being almost three years ago, and that being a KO victory against the shadow of Tony Ferguson. Also, a two year lay-off waiting on a fight with Conor McGregor that didn’t materialize was hardly ideal at this stage in the now 38-year-old’s career. That being said, he still managed to go the full five rounds against a proven finishing machine in Oliveira upon his return and even came on strong in the final round, so his stamina, toughness and will-power are clearly still intact. And that’s important as all three of those attributes are important to his high-energy style. Chandler constantly looks to throw punches with big power, has fast, explosive entries into range and maintains a good volume of strikes from start to finish, but while he’s smart enough to be know better, he has had a habit of brawling over the course of his career. And sometimes that’s worked out for him, helped by having very good powers of recovery when rocked, but it doesn’t always go his way. Chandler is a well-rounded fighter though who also has strong wrestling, good ground-and-pound and can be a submission threat, while he is generally solid defensively on the mat too.
A larger-than-life character with a distinctive look, the 30-year-old Pimblett was tipped to become a star in the UFC long before he finally joined, but at times there’s been question marks about how far both his skill-set and mind-set could take him. Even in his early UFC fights when he was racking up stoppage wins there were moments of concern, particularly with regards to his defense as his chin was often left exposed and put him in trouble at times. Meanwhile he was perhaps fortunate to emerge with a decision win after an underwhelming performance against Jordan leavitt at the end of 2013, and his habit of ballooning up in weight between fight camps was another potential red-flag. That being said, Pimblett also showed that he had good power, a strong chin and an ability to battle through adversity, while his crafty grappling ability has always been a stand-out aspect of his game that’s led him to numerous wins. And in his last couple of fights Pimblett has shown signs of improvement, becoming more dialled-in with his striking, and looked particularly sharp last time out against Bobby Green. He also appears to be in very good physical shape heading into this weekend’s bout, which is important given that it’s scheduled for five rounds.
Pimblett clearly has the momentum coming into this one, particularly off that impressive 1st round win over Green where his striking looked considerably better before getting the submission finish. At this stage in their careers Pimblett perhaps also has the better chin of the two, but he has had his bell rung in the past by average opposition, and if a proven power puncher like Chandler hurts him, he’ll be more ruthless in finding a finish afterwards. Chandler’s wrestling could also help him dictate whether this fight stays on the feet or not, and his generally solid submission defense means Pimblett would have to be on top form to tap him out. I could see a real back-and-forth battle breaking out here, but I think in the end Pimblett’s defensive liabilities will catch up with him, leading Chandler to a third round TKO finish.
Prediction: Michael Chandler to win by TKO in Rd3.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva Prediction
Bryce Mitchell KO’d Kron Gracie in December of last year and now returns to take on the fast-rising Jean Silva, who has gone 4-0 in the UFC so far.
Mitchell has unfortunately become more infamous for his bone-headed beliefs out of the Octagon than his fighting ability in recent times, with a podcast declaration that Hitler was a good guy who he’d have liked to have gone fishing with leading to Dana White declaring him to be ‘literally one of the dumbest human beings’. He stopped short of showing him the exit though, and instead handing him this tough fight, but Mitchell is no stranger to those. The 30-year-old is at his best on the mat, being a skilled grappler who can control his opponents on the mat, has a good submission arsenal and works well in scrambling situations. Mitchell is also well-conditioned and has a natural intensity to his work that’s also seen in his striking, but while he has respectable power on the feet he’s certainly not as convincing or technical in the stand-up exchanges as he is on the mat, and a brutal KO loss to Josh Emmett in late 2023 showed that being tough and scrappy only takes you so far.
The 28-year-old Silva had a reputation as a finisher heading into the UFC and he’s lit up the Octagon with his performances so far, with all four of his wins coming via either KO or TKO. Silva exudes confidence and though he’s clearly a heavy hitter on the feet, he’s slick with it too, with his speed, technique and reactions enabling him to close the distance quickly to land strikes with impressive accuracy, while also doing a good job of evading those thrown back at him. The fact he reads his opponent’s intentions well also benefits him when it comes to deploying his sturdy takedown defense, and at close quarters hard elbows and uppercuts act as further deterrents. If he is taken down Silva generally does a good job getting back up, and he does have a couple of submission wins on his record.
Mitchell can certainly cause problems here if he can force the fight to the mat, but that’s easier said than done. I think Silva’s a genuine force to be reckoned with in the division, and his speed, takedown defense and impressive striking arsenal at all ranges will prove to much to handle in the end, leading to a TKO finish in the second round.
Prediction: Jean Silva to win by TKO in Rd12
Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull Prediction
Former interim featherweight champion Yair Rodriguez is coming off back-to-back losses as he now prepares to welcome former Bellator featherweight and lightweight champion Patricio Pitbull.
The 32-year-old Rodriguez is one of the most dynamic, agile and creative strikers in the sport. He executes the fundamentals very well, but he also has a knack for unleashing more exotic techniques with all eight limbs in a natural, fast and fluid way that actually makes them accurate, dangerous weapons rather than just being entertaining for the crowd to watch. And he’ll be aided in that regard here by a natural size advantage as he’ll have an extra 6″ in both height and reach over the stockier Pitbull. Rodriguez does rely on his reactions and athleticism to get him out of harms way at times though, which he is good at, but it means there are moments when he can be caught and he has been finished by strikes three times in his career. Meanwhile, Rodriguez has worked to develop his ground game, and has become more of a threat offensively and more comfortable defensively, but he did suffer his first submission loss last time out against BJJ ace Brian Ortega.
Pitbull became synonymous with the now defunct Bellator promotion during his 14-year campaign there, becoming a two-division champion, including having four separate title reigns, as well as racking up the most wins in the company’s history (24) and most finishes (15). It’s also worth noting he actually TKO’d this event’s co-main event star Michael Chandler to win the 155lb title, but the vast majority of his career has been at 145lbs. It’s just unfortunate that it’s taken him until he’s 37 to finally make the move over to the UFC to challenge himself in the Octagon. He’s not gone off the boil yet though as he’s coming off a TKO win, though he had suffered back-to-back losses for the first time prior to that. Pitbull is a short, stocky fighter with solid striking fundamentals and accurate counter-striking ability, and benefits from having heavy hands and hard low kicks. He’s also been very durable and shown a lot of heart in his career, but he was KO’d for the first time a couple of fights go (albeit in a very short notice fight up at lightweight). Meanwhile he can comfortably transition from striking to wrestling and has a dangerous submission game that accounts of half of his finishes, as well as good ground-and-pound.
The arrival of Pitbull to the UFC feels a bit like Michael Chandler in the sense that he already has a lot of miles on the clock at this point, but is still capable of putting on competitive, entertaining fights. This is a challenging match-up for him though as Rodriguez has the size and speed advantage together with just having a level of flair and creativity that even an experienced campaigner like Pitbull will have a hard time with. Pitbull’s best chance may lie on the mat, but I think Rodriguez has improved enough to keep this one standing for the most part, and I’ll take him to deliver a 3rd round TKO finish.
Prediction: Yair Rodriguez to win by TKO In Rd3.
Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes Prediction
Nikita Krylov is riding a three-fight winning streak heading into his next fight against Dominick Reyes, who has navigated past a four-fight losing slump by earning back-to-back victories last year.
The 33-year-old Krylov was on a good run of form last time he stepped into the Octagon, but that was over two years ago, having since been sidelined due to a serious shoulder injury that required surgery and took a long time to recover from. When he’s healthy Krylov is known as an all-action fighter with strong finishing instinct, having won all but two of his 30 career wins inside the distance. He pushes the pace with his high-volume striking on the feet, making use of his versatile offense, including a good kicking game, but he can be reckless and has to rely on his solid chin at times due to leaving himself open for counters. Krylov is equally offensively-minded on the mat, which has led him to 16 submission finishes, but again he can be careless defensively and has been finished himself six times via submission.
The 35-year-old Reyes career peaked in 2020 when he went up against Jon Jones for the 205lb champion while still undefeated and gave him one of his toughest fights, before eventually losing out by unanimous decision. At the time Reyes was a talented, athletic striker with fast hands, kicks and footwork, together with solid power that had led him to quick finishes over the likes of Jared Cannonier and Chris Weidman. Unfortunately an expected rematch with Jones didn’t materialize and Reyes form dipped drastically afterwards, appearing less sharp and more fragile than before, resulting in three tough losses via T(KO). However, Reyes has managed to arrest that slide and remind everyone that he’s still a big threat offensively by KO’ing Dustin Jacoby and TKO’ing Anthony Smith last year.
There’s question marks over both fighters here as Reyes wins were over two veteran who were also in a slump in form at the time, while Krylov’s long lay-off due to the shoulder injury means we’re not quite sure what to expect from him. Reyes has definitely benefited from renewed confidence in recent times though and has looked more like his old self, but if Krylov is 100% fit then I think his aggressive style will lead to the kind of battle that will threaten Reyes questionable chin, while he’s also the more dangerous fighter on the mat too. As such I’ll take Krylov to win by TKO in Rd2.
Prediction: Nikita Krylov to win by TKO In Rd2.
Check UFC Offers!UFC 314 Prelims
(Predicted winners in bold)
Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodson
Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna Jandiroba
Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper
Sedriques Dumas vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk
Darren Elkins vs. Julian Erosa
Su Mudaerji vs. Mitch Raposo
Tresean Gore vs. Marco Tulio
Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey Cowan
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