UFC On ABC 9: Whittaker vs. de Ridder takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
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UFC On ABC 9 Predictions
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Robert Whittaker vs. Reiner de Ridder Prediction
Robert Whittaker suffered a disappointingly swift submission loss to Khamzat Chimaev last October and now returns to fight former two-division ONE FC champion Reinder de Ridder, who has won all three of his UFC fights so far.
The 34-year-old was overwhelmed by Khamzat’s early grapping pressure last year, but that’s not something we’re used to seeing from the former 185lb champ as he typically has very good takedown defense and only has one other submission loss on his record, dating back almost 15 years ago. On the feet is certainly where Whittaker is at his best though, utilizing his very well-versed boxing ability behind a trusty jab, with bigger punches behind that being delivered with good speed and respectable power. He also has solid kicks and does a good job of sneaking that up high in the midst of his combination work. Whittaker’s also has very good footwork and does well to manage the distance the fight is fought at.
The 34-year-old de Ridder has settled into the UFC well, already beating notable names like Gerald Meerschaert, Kevin Holland and last time out becoming the first to beat the highly touted Bo Nickal via TKO. De Ridder’s striking has generally not been his calling card, but while he’s not the quickest or most fluid, he does have respectable fundamentals and as he showed against Nickal that he possesses punishing knee strikes, and they have finished other opponents in the past too. As a former 205lb’er he’s also big for the division, and will have a 4″ height and 5″ reach advantage over Whittaker, but it’s really on the mat that de Ridder is most effective. He’s a solid wrestler and is a very assured, methodical grappler who has already amassed 13 submission victories from 20 career wins so far.
I’d expect Whittaker to have doubled down on his takedown defense training after his last fight, though to be fair there’s not many fighters as effective as Khamzat at forcing the fight to the floor, and so I think he’ll do a better job on Saturday night. On the feet Whittaker should still have a big advantage here as he’s faster, harder-hitting and more technical than de Ridder, and so I think he’ll be able to find a third round TKO finish.
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Petr Yan vs. Marcus McGhee Prediction
Former bantamweight champion Petr Yan is coming off two wins in a row last year and is ranked No.3 in the division, yet curiously he’s been matched up against the No.13 ranked Marcus McGhee here, who has emerged victorious in all four of his UFC fights so far.
The 32-year-old Yan lost his previous air of invicibility when he lost three fights in a row between 2022-2023, but the reality was he’d come out on the wrong end of narrow split-decisions against both Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley, while his other defeat came against Merab Dvalishvili, who is now the dominant champ. Wins over Song Yadong and Deiveson Figueiredo since have made it clear that he’s still a major force in the division though. Yan is a talented technical boxer with fast hands, very accurate combination work and strong defense, and he also has reliable takedown defense and solid offensive wrestling into the bargain. Meanwhile, he reads his opponents well and his cardio enables him to ramp up the intensity as the fight goes on, pushing a pace that’s hard for his opponent’s to keep up with. 23-fights into his career he’s also still never been finished.
The 35-year-old McGhee is coming off his biggest win yet, a unanimous decision victory over Jonathan Martinez, but it’s still surprising to see him already getting a co-main event spot against one of the divisions leading contenders. That being said, McGhee has been doing the right things in his bouts so far to have the matchmakers sit up and take notice as he brings the fight to his opponents, has hard-hitting boxing ability and has a consistent knack for finishing opponents, having registered eight stoppages via strikes and one by submission in his 10-fight career to date. Add in a spinning wheel kick finish in the Octagon last year to further spice up his resume and he now has the opportunity to show what he can do in a higher-profile fight.
McGhee’s explosive striking makes him a threat, but Yan is the smarter, more technical and more sound defensively striker of the two, and as such I expect him to outclass his opponent here with his technical boxing over three rounds to win by decision.
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Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov Prediction
Bryce Mitchell suffered a second round submission loss to Jean Silva last time out that keeps him in a sequence of ‘win-one, lose-one’ over the past three years. Now he’ll look to get back in the win column by dropping down to 135lbs, where he’ll face Said Nurmagomedov, who has suffered two losses in his last three Octagon appearances.
Mitchell had a good run at the start of his time in the UFC, winning six fights in a row. During that time he proved to be tricky to deal with on the mat in particular with his skilled grappling that enabled him to control opponents and operate well in scrambling situations, while he also had respectable wrestling, good conditioning and an intensity to the way he fought. Mitchell also proved to be a willing striker too, but though he has some power, he’s certainly not as technical and effective in the striking department as on the mat. The 30-year-old’s reputation has been damaged since that bright start, partly by his bizarre, and at times downright foolish opinions, but also due to mixed results in the Octagon. However, to be fair to him his defeats have come against top-flight fighters, with Ilia Topuria of course having gone on to become a two-division champion, while Josh Emmett is always a threat, and Jean Silva is building a reputation as one of the most exciting rising stars in the sport. As such, while Mitchell may not be on that level, he’s still a fighter that’s not to be taken lightly.
As always, it’s worth stressing straight away that Nurmagomedov bares no relation to the famed trio of Khabib, Usman and Umar Nurmagomedov, though he does also come from Dagestan. And defying expectations he’s also not really all that much of a wrestler either as the 33-year-old is more focused on his dynamic striking with fast kicks to all levels, dangerous knees and occasional spinning attacks. Nurmagomedov is also a threat via submission and will jump on guillotine choke attempts at close quarters.
If Nurmagomedov can keep this one standing then he should be the more effective, creative striker, although Mitchell may actually be the harder hitter of the two. However, I’d expect Mitchell to be hunting for ways to get the fight to the mat, and with Nurmagomedov’s takedown defense not being the best I think he can do that and then use his grappling control to win rounds and emerge with a decision victory.
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Shara Magomedov vs. Marc-Andre Barriault Prediction
Shara Magomedov started off his UFC run with four wins, but lost to Michael ‘Venom’ Page last time out. Now he’ll go up against Marc-Andre Barriault, who managed to break free of a three-fight losing slump a couple of months ago thanks to a 1st round KO finish.
The 31-year-old Magomedov couldn’t figure out how to deal with ‘Venom’ Page’s unique striking style and size advantage, but in general during his time in the UFC so far he’s had a good deal of success with his high-volume, creative and dynamic stand-up game. There’s a lot of versatility to Magomedov’s approach, bringing all eight limbs into play, which keeps his opponent’s guessing from start to finish. His knee strikes have proven to be potential fight-enders, while notching up the first ever double-spinning backfist KO in the UFC last year demonstrated that his flashier moves are not just for show. Defensively he’s not as convincing, though he has proven to be durable, while despite hailing from Dagestan he has no interest in taking the fight to the mat and has suspect takedown defense.
The 35-year-old Barriault will have been relieved to have got back to winning ways last time out as prior to that he’d lost three fights in a row last year, with the latter two of those both being by 1st round KO. That suggested Barriault’s desire to get on the front foot and slug it out on the feet had taken a toll on his chin. And to be honest that’s still a real possibility as though he’s since KO’d Bruno Silva, his opponent had by that point clearly become a shadow of his former self after losing seven of his last eight fights. So Barriault’s durability remains a question-mark, but he’s still a muscular middleweight with solid power who can strike in volume and has reliable cardio.
This looks like a tough match-up for Barriault as he’s a much more limited striker than Magomedov and is going to be at a clear speed disadvantage. And while he’s try to lean on his work-horse approach, Magomedov is also a volume striker who can stay active longer than you’d expect for someone with his energetic style. Given Barriault’s recent chin issues I think ‘Shara Bullet’ finds a finish in the first round here though.
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Nikita Krylov vs. Bogdan Guskov Prediction
Nikita Krylov’s three-fight winning streak was halted back in April when he was KO’d in the first round by Dominick Reyes. Now he returns to fight Bogdan Guskov, who has won his last three fights in the Octagon.
It’s worth noting that the 33-year-old Krylov’s KO loss came after having a two-year layoff due to a long rehab after undergoing surgery for a serious shoulder injury. Krylov has only ever been finished by strikes one other time in his career (his UFC debut back in 2013), despite having an action-orientated striking style that can lead to carelessness at times. Krylov’s own finishing rate is impressive, with no less than 28 of his 30 career wins coming by way of stoppage. On the feet his high-volume, versatile and aggressive output has accounted for 12 of those victories, while he’s also shown the killer instinct on the mat too with 16 submission finishes. On the other hand, his offensive focus has proven more costly on the mat at times as he’s been stopped by submission six times.
The 32-year-old Guskov doesn’t have as wide an array of offensive weaponry as Krylov, but he is also a proven finisher, with all 17 of his career victories coming inside the distance, and 14 of those being via strikes. There’s not a whole lot of finesse to Guskov’s striking, but sticking to the basics and relying on his big power has proven effective so far, including a TKO finish of Ryan Spann last year. One of his three submission wins also came in his last Octagon outing, but he was also tapped out by Volkan Oezdemir in his UFC debut, despite his opponent not being known for his submission prowess.
Krylov isn’t as wild as he once was, and a KO loss last time out might just lead him to be even more strategic here. He certainly has more ways to win than Guskov here, whether with his more diverse striking arsenal or superior wrestling and grappling, and so I’ll take him to find a 2nd round submission finish.
UFC On ABC 9: Whittaker vs. de Ridder Prelims
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(Predicted winners in bold)
Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Ochoa
Amanda Ribas vs. Tabatha Ricci
Muslim Salikhov vs. Carlos Leal Miranda
Ibo Aslan vs. Billy Elekana
Martin Buday vs. Marcus Buchecha
Mohammad Yahya vs. Steven Nguyen
Davey Grant vs. Da’Mon Blackshear
