The NBA Finals conclude Monday with Game 7 between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder, where the winner takes it all.
We have NBA Finals Game 7 expert tips and predictions for the big game, where the Thunder are $1.28 favourites to win the title.
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NBA Finals Game 7 Tips
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It might be recency bias, but the Pacers look better prepared to win the NBA title after a dominant win at home in Game 6. It was a one-sided game from the outset, and the attitude of the Thunder players wasn’t that of a team wanting to win the NBA Championship.
They rested on their laurels knowing they have home court advantage on Monday, but that might not be enough to get the job done. The Pacers were able to give Tyrese Haliburton plenty of rest in the second half, so he’ll be good to go in Game 7.
Getting a +8.5 start is a generous offering from bookmakers considering how well the Pacers defended at home, and there was a notable lack of concentration from the Thunder players, and they’re young and inexperienced enough to let it get to them.
The Thunder should be favourites to win, but there shouldn’t be 8.5 points between them. The Pacers will defend for their lives, and if they get some early shots to drop, they will use momentum to stay in the contest.
There is nothing between them, so getting points in this situation is too good to pass up. Take the Pacers +8.5 and have a nibble on them to win outright.
Pacers by 4
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Haliburton had 14 points on Friday, and he barely played in the second half. Despite his injury concern, he should play most of the game in an all-or-nothing situation.
He also made a shot from the left side of the court, which he had been unable to do throughout the NBA Finals. That was good to see, and it will allow him to drive both directions without being double-teamed by the Thunder defence.
Getting $1.86 for Haliburton 15+ points is a good price, and we have him scoring around 19-20 points for the visitors.
We also like Aaron Nesmith 2+ three pointers made. He has been electric from behind the three-point line throughout the series, posting 14 threes from his last five games. He is a key part to the Pacers’ success, and he is often left wide open to shoot. He’s the current $1.62 favourite to have 2+ threes, so there is good betting support for him.
There is good value with Pascal Siakam scoring 20+ points and the Pacers winning. He is having a great NBA Finals, and a great season at that. The hardest part will be the Pacers winning, but there could be an upset in the making.
Seasoned players are better to back in the decider, so take the Siakam/Pacers double at $5.20.
