Adelaide vs. Collingwood Predictions – AFL Finals Week 1 2025

We have Adelaide vs. Collingwood predictions for AFL action on Thursday September 4 at 7:40pm at the Adelaide Oval.

Finals Week 1 action kicks off with a massive game between the Crows and Magpies, where the Crows are favoured to justify their minor premiership title.

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Adelaide vs. Collingwood Predictions

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Best Bet

Adelaide –10.5 @ $1.90

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We believe Adelaide will make a statement against Collingwood, and the Magpies haven’t been playing well over the last few weeks.

They lost three consecutive games before only narrowly beating Melbourne last week, and with Adelaide with all the momentum on its side, it should have no problem winning and covering the –10.5 spread at Adelaide Oval.

It’s one of the better lines of the opening round of finals, and although Collingwood has a wealth of finals experience, we don’t have confidence with this current unit. It’s heading in the wrong direction, so the minor premiers should be far too good.

Punters should expect the –10.5 line to shift over the next 10 days.

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Same Game Multi

Adelaide -10.5, Riley Thilthorpe 2+ Goals, Taylor Walker 2+ Goals, Total Match Points Under 160.5 @ $6.00

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Riley Thilthorpe has been one of our most popular goal-scoring options in 2025, and we’re not about to jump off his back in the biggest game yet.

He has been in fine form for the Crows, and although the odds aren’t huge for a 2+ goal effort, we expect him to score two with ease. If you want more value, take him for 3+ goals at $2.75, but we’re happy with the $1.55.

Taylor Walker is another player who steps up on the big occasion. Punters get $1.88 for Walker to chime in with a double, and we’re backing him to have a big game.

Under 160.5 points is worth including in AFL SGM picks. They often compete in a low-scoring game, and we can’t see Collingwood scoring too many points.

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Best Value Bet

Adelaide Wire-to-Wire @ $2.35

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Cashing a wire-to-wire bet comes with some risk, mostly in the first quarter, but we predict Adelaide coming out of the gates firing on all cylinders.

With a massive Adelaide Oval crowd behind them, the Crows should score an early goal and never look back against a Collingwood team that is dealing with confidence issues.

The $2.35 is just good enough to qualify as an AFL value bet.