We have Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua tips and predictions for the big fight in Miami this Saturday evening.
Boxing purists are hoping England’s Joshua puts the hurt on American Disney star-turned Youtuber turned boxer Paul, and boxing odds suggests that he will.
Joshua is the $1.10 favourite to win, and Paul has firmed into $7.25 after opening at $8.50.
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Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Tips
Best Bet
All things being equal, Joshua should absolutely destroy Paul. Joshua is a former world champion, and he has fought the very best fighters in the heavyweight division.
Paul has faced retired MMA fighters, an old Mike Tyson, and most of his fights have come without a knockout clause, which was the case when fighting Tyson. There isn’t a reported no knockout clause for this fight, but Paul could go the distance.
It would be wise to avoid getting too close to Joshua, and we question whether Joshua wants to win by knockout. This is nothing more than an exhibition fight, and he knows punters want to see more than a one-round fight.
That’s the big concern when backing Joshua to win by KO at $1.29. It’s only an eight-round fight, and these fights involving Paul are typically dud spectacles. If Paul wants to survive getting his head rocked, he needs to fight on the outside.
If he does that, Joshua should win by decision, and the $5.75 odds are worth the risk. However, we see no way Paul can cause an upset. He’s not technically good enough to hang with Joshua, and his power won’t worry him.
Paul vs. Joshua Props
The line for the Alvarez vs. Crawford fight was 110 body punches landed, so bookmakers don’t expect a similar fight between Paul and Joshua. That’s because they’re expecting a quick knockout, but we’re backing over 50 landed body punches.
If our hunch is correct, and there is some form of knockout clause, they should attack the body more than the head. Paul would be smart to target Joshua’s body, which has been his downfall throughout his career.
Joshua will also be looking to target Paul’s body early before looking for a head shot later in the fight, and by then, they should have well over 50 body shots landed between them.
There is also good value for Paul to land 30+ body shots at $2.50. He’s unlikely to land many shots to Joshua’s head, so going for the body is his best chance to win rounds.
Best Value Bet
We would love to see this fight go the distance, and it would be great for the boxing world. Say what you want about Jake Paul, but he can fight, and he can stick with Joshua throughout.
It’s clearly going to be his toughest fight to date, and Paul only just recently earned a ranking, but he has more confidence than most professional boxers.
Joshua doesn’t want to risk getting knocked out, which would effectively ruin his career, so they could work the body and avoid taking big shots.
$3.50 is worth including in your boxing bets this week.
