NRL Sunday on May 11 starts with Storm vs. Wests Tigers at 2:00pm, and it should be a good contest at AAMI Park.
The Storm have a dominant 26-12 advantage over the Tigers, which is why they’re $1.17 favourites to prevail at home.
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Storm vs. Wests Tigers Predictions
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Best Bet
The current line is Storm –14.5, which is too high for our liking. We predict the Storm winning, and there is good value with the 1-12 line.
Getting $3.30 for the Storm to win by 12 or less is a great price, and although they’re a much better team than the Tigers, the Storm have found it tough to put teams away recently, including blowing a 14-0 lead over the Raiders last week.
The Storm won 40-28 last year, and with the Tigers coming off wins over the Sharks and Dragons, they deserve some respect. Winning at AAMI Park won’t be easy, but they’re good enough to lose by single digits.
Same Game Multi
We have had success backing Ryan Papenhuyzen and Sunia Tuvura this season, and there is no reason to jump off their backs.
Papenhuyzen scored a try in each of his last three games, and it’s good to see him playing with confidence after suffering many concussions throughout his career. He’s a $1.52 chance to score, so the odds aren’t big, but they’re worth including in same game multis.
Turuva is a $2.05 chance to score, which are good odds. He has four tries from his last five games, and he’s one of the best finishers in the NRL. His odds are big because bookmakers don’t expect the Tigers to score often, but it should be a high scoring game.
That’s why we’re including over 51.5 points. They scored 68 in their most recent meeting, so punters should expect a wide-open contest in sunny conditions in Melbourne.
Best Value Bet
The Tigers could grab a halftime lead and come out running on Sunday. They have been starting well in their recent wins, and although the Storm have been too, the Storm could take 40 minutes to overcome the shock of losing last week.
There can be hangovers from tough losses, and with the Tigers playing with momentum, they could lead at halftime before being overrun in the second half by the classier team.
$3.40 is a good enough price to include it in NRL picks.