AFL Round 5 action kicks off with Adelaide vs Geelong at Adelaide Oval on Thursday April 10 at 7:40pm.
The entire round is played in Adelaide, and one of the teams to benefit from that are the Crows, who look to bounce back from a heartbreaking defeat.
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Adelaide vs. Geelong Predictions
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Best Bet
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.20
Adelaide looks to rebound following a tough loss to the Gold Coast Suns, where they were hard done by, and it should bounce back against Geelong on Thursday.
Playing at home is always a big assist for Adelaide, which is the $1.62 favourite to get revenge over the Cats for losing 90-85 in Round 21 last season. Based on the way the Crows have played in 2025, they are every chance of winning.
We didn’t see much value in the head-to-head price, but there is excellent value with the 1-39 option at $2.20. We can’t see either team scoring a blowout victory, and it should be a tight contest from the opening bounce.
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Adelaide H2H, Riley Thilthorpe 2+ Goals, Shannon Neale Anytime Goal Scorer, Total Match Points Under 179.5 @ $6.45
We’re comfortable in picking Adelaide to win outright, and although $1.62 is short of great value, it’s well worth including in AFL same game multis. They are keen to get back to their winning ways, and a massive crowd at Adelaide Oval could get it done.
A big reason for Adelaide’s success is Riley Thilthorpe, who has been a goal scoring machine recently. The forward kicked five goals in a losing effort against the Suns, making it 17 goals from his last five games. He’s more than capable of kicking at least two goals against Geelong, so include the short odds in your multis.
We also like Shannon Neale to kick a goal for Geelong. He has three goals from his last five games, but he scored last week, and the 22-year-old should get an opportunity for a six-pointer on Thursday.
Games between Adelaide and Geelong are often low scoring. They scored 175 points in August, which followed a 173-point performance in March 2024. It could be a defensive battle, and getting a 179.5 line is generous from bookmakers.
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Adelaide Wire-to-Wire @ $2.70
Making a good start is important for Adelaide to win the game, and we think it comes out humming against the Cats. After being behind 23-16 after the first quarter against Gold Coast, Adelaide will want to start much faster and take a lead into the second quarter.
Punters get $2.70 for a wire-to-wire victory, which is excellent value. The hardest part is the first quarter with wire-to-wire bets, but expect the likes of Darcy Fogarty and Thilthorpe to get the Crows off to a quick start.
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