AFL Round 1 2026 Expert Tips & Predictions

The AFL continues this week with Round 1 action, starting with Carlton vs. Richmond on Thursday night.

We have AFL betting tips for every game in 2026, including this week’s featured games between Geelong vs. Fremantle, Sydney vs. Brisbane, and Collingwood vs. Adelaide.

AFL Round 1 Tips

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Thursday 12/3/26

We backed Carlton last week when they couldn’t match Sydney in the second half, but there were good signs early. They played well in the opening half before being outclassed, but facing Richmond is a different kettle of fish.

The Tigers should struggle to deliver their fans with wins this season, and although Carlton isn’t the toughest game in Round 1, they should still struggle.

We’re keeping faith with Carlton, which will deliver for punters sooner rather than later.

Carlton by 24

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Friday 13/3/26

It could be a long year for Essendon supporters, but the Bombers typically show their best footy early in the season.

We’re hoping that holds true on Friday as they host the Hawks, who look to rebound after losing in the opening round. The Hawks have a better team, but that loss could have shaken their confidence enough for Essendon to keep it close.

This game comes down to attitude, and if Essendon shows up with a good mindset, they can cover the +28.5 spread.

Hawthorn by 18

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Saturday 14/3/26

The Western Bulldogs looked good when beating Brisbane last week, in what was a high-scoring affair. However, we were also impressed by GWS.

They put up a big number on Hawthorn, and if the Giants can score points, they are tough to stop. They scored 122 points, and getting a +20.5 start is much better than we expected from bookmakers against the Bulldogs.

A close game is expected, and the $3.34 for GWS to win is also worth a play.

GWS by 6

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We expected more from Geelong last week when losing heavily to Gold Coast, but the Cats are a good bounce-back team, so we’re sticking with them.

Last year’s finalists have enough firepower to handle the Dockers, who don’t have the benefit of a game under their belt, which could make a big difference.

We’re sticking with Geelong for another week, but the pressure is on.

Geelong by 16

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The reason why Brisbane won the premiership last year was its ability to bounce back from a loss. The Lions did it so well in 2025, and we’re predicting a big effort following a loss last week.

They couldn’t keep up with the Western Bulldogs, who got the job done in dramatic circumstances, but it was still a good effort from Brisbane. They looked good on offence, so they only need to sure up the defence to beat Sydney.

Getting a +13.5 start is excellent, so include them in your AFL picks.

Brisbane by 4

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Looking to stay unbeaten is Collingwood, which showed good toughness to beat St Kilda on Sunday night.

It was an ideal way to start for the Magpies, who were needing a confidence boost, and our AFL picks this week have them beating Adelaide.

The Crows have a good offence, but Collingwood should capitalise on their scoring opportunities in the forward 50. They have a strong midfield, so getting set shots shouldn’t be too difficult.

Collingwood by 10

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Sunday 15/3/26

The best time to bet on North Melbourne is early, so we’re backing them to cover the +8.5 spread against Port Adelaide.

Expectations are slightly higher than normal for North Melbourne, which showed signs of life last season, and that should give the Kangaroos some confidence.

Port Adelaide is trending negatively, so back the home side to keep it close.

North Melbourne by 6

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St Kilda didn’t do too much wrong against Collingwood last week, so it should be tough to beat against Melbourne.

We don’t like the way Melbourne has trended over the last few years, and a bad opening game could set the negative wheel in action.

There isn’t much between them with AFL odds, but money should come for the Saints.

St Kilda by 16

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It’s the first game of the year for West Coast, and already the Eagles are being disrespected in betting markets at +60.5.

That’s based on how good Gold Coast looked in their opening game, and everything is pointing towards the SUNS making a deep run in the AFL playoffs later this year.

The same can’t be said for West Coast, who could suffer a big opening game loss.

Gold Coast by 68