2026 Norm Smith Medal Predictions & Betting Tips

Starts in 3d 23h

Will Ashcroft is the favourite to win his third straight Norm Smith Medal at $6, but we have found value outside the Lions superstar, and we expect a couple of Freo players to make the biggest impact on Grand Final day at the MCG on Saturday.

Best Bet

Luke Jackson @ $10.00

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We don’t think Fremantle would have made the final without Luke Jackson. The big man is a beast in the middle of the ground, and his centre clearances are better than most in the competition.

That’s why we’re picking him to win the Norm Smith Medal. If he can dominate the centre ball-ups, Fremantle will get out and running quickly, and that’s the key to their success. Many of their goals come quickly after winning possession, and that’s because Jackson is the best in the business.

We’re not surprised that he’s the top-rated player from Fremantle to win the 2026 Norm Smith Medal. The $10 is a good price despite the betting support, and if he plays well and kicks a couple of goals along with his clearances, he should gain plenty of votes.

Next Best

Shai Bolton @ $15.00

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Shai Bolton is another Fremantle player who should have a big impact on the contest. He is having an excellent season, and he’s a player who benefits from Jackson having a good game in the centre of the field.

Bolton often gets the attack started for the Dockers, and his energy levels are unmatched. If Fremantle win the AFL Grand Final, Bolton’s fingerprints will be all over the contest. He is one of their key players, and he makes an impact with both the disposal and goal-scoring departments.

The $15 odds make him a worthwhile Norm Smith Medal bet.

Best Value

Charlie Cameron @ $34.00

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If Brisbane wins the final, we don’t want to leave one of their players out of our AFL picks this week.

We’ve landed on Charlie Cameron, and although he’s not favoured in betting markets at $34, he could kick his way to the Norm Smith Medal.

He has 12 goals from his last five games, including five goals against Adelaide in the semifinals, and if he’s anywhere near that level, he could win the Norm Smith Medal. He’s a popular player, and scoring 4-5 goals should get it done.

We’re happy to include him in our AFL predictions at the odds, which are likely to firm throughout the week.

Best Roughie

Josh Treacy @ $51.00

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We wouldn’t be so quick to discount Josh Treacy from winning the 2026 Norm Smith Medal. He didn’t kick a goal last week against Sydney, which was surprising, but he could bounce back with a massive effort for Fremantle.

He’s a good player, and although his recent form isn’t the best, a 3-4 goal effort could be enough to swing the votes in his favour.

Voters often reward the hard-working players like Ashcroft and Jackson, but if Treacy is accurate in front of goal, he could be the difference between winning and losing, so he’s worth a bet at the mammoth odds.

Blowout Chance

Eric Hipwood @ $101.00

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Punters get huge odds for Eric Hipwood, and although he’s unlikely to win, having $1 on him isn’t the worst bet.

He’s another goal-scoring option for Brisbane, who has 11 goals in his last five games. He will need to have a big performance to win the Norm Smith Medal, but there is a world where he kicks 5-6 goals, and that will take him close.

Given the odds, he’s worth including in AFL picks as a blowout chance.

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Editor In Chief

Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl Curnow was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.