UFC On ESPN 54 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the APEX arena in Las Vegas, United States – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can join the action at the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot Predictions
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Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot Prediction
A flyweight title shot looks to be on the line for the winner of this headlining clash, with both the No.2 ranked Erin Blanchfield and No.3 placed Manon Fiorot each having gone unbeaten in their six UFC fights to date.
As their impressive records suggest these are two very talented 125lb’ers who have already proven to each be worthy of a title shot. With that in mind it’s unfortunate that they have to fight each other first, but nonetheless it’s a great match-up. Blanchfield is still only 24-years-old, yet she already has a very well-rounded skill-set. She’s at her best on the mat with very good grappling ability, and has surprisingly mean ground-and-pound to go alongside her versatile submission threat. She’s a relatively capable wrestler too, and while it’s not her primary focus she has shown significant improvements to her striking ability as well.
At 34-years-old Fiorot is a full decade older than Blanchfield, but coming off a unanimous decision win over Rose Namajunas she’s showing no sign of being past her peak yet. 3″ taller than Blanchfield, she’s big for a flyweight and lands with authority and confidence on the feet thanks to her assured boxing ability, and she can kick well too. That being said, while she was a notable finisher on the regional circuit via punches and continued that into the early part of her UFC run, as time has gone on she’s shown she’s just as capable of winning on the scorecards too. As such she finds a solid balance between aggression and activity, while still being mindful of her defense and movement. Meanwhile, Fiorot isn’t out of her element on the mat, but it’s not her strong suit and she will look to utilize her solid takedown defense to keep the action standing.
While Blanchfield has shown some promising progress on the feet I would expect Fiorot’s blend of skill, physicality and power to ensure she still has the advantage there. Blanchfield certainly has the better grappling though and has more potential avenues to victory, so it’s a finely balanced match-up. A lot will hinge on whether Blanchfield can secure the takedowns she needs, and her wrestling isn’t as strong as her grappling. Still, I’ve been impressed by her tenacity and so while she might find the going quite tough early on, I think she’ll manage to battle through that and find more success with her ground game as the fight goes on, and with more left in the tank late in the fight she’ll edge out a win on the scorecards.
Prediction: Erin Blanchfield to win by decision
Betting Brand for UFC Fans!Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley Prediction
Vicente Luque successfully got back in the win column last time out after two losses in a row prior to that and now fights Joaquin Buckley, who has emerged victorious in his last couple of fights.
The 32-year-old Luque is now well over a year-and-a-half removed from a disturbing KO loss against Geoff Neal that resulted in him suffering a brain hemorrhage. After a year out his decision win over Rafael dos Anjos last August was a much needed confidence boost, but it’s still not an easy injury to just put to the side and forget about.
That may be particularly true given that Luque’s stock-in-trade has usually been that of a fearless, swashbuckling striker who has been willing to eat strikes to land his own and had never been finished via strikes up until the Neal fight. Nevertheless, Luque does still remain a dangerous offensively on the feet with his hard-hitting combinations and he does benefit from having more strings to his bow than just that as he also has a good submission game and solid wrestling too.
The 29-year-old Buckley has an action-hero physique and his explosive, dynamic striking has had a movie-like quality to it at times too, having gone viral in the past for his spectacular knockout finishes. He’s shown improved wrestling and pacing over time too though, so he doesn’t necessarily have to get a big KO to win. That being said there certainly more depth to his striking than other aspects of his game and he has also been KO’d twice and TKO’d once during his 11-fight UFC run.
If this fight had come before Luque’s loss to Neal I’d feel more confident to pick him here as I do feel he’s the better fighter overall and has a broader skill-set. There’s still questions remaining though about whether he’s still willing and able to get into extended firefights with someone as hard-hitting as Buckley. Even so I’m picking Luque here, but I think we could see him look to lean more on his ground-game here to get the job done, which will pay off when he secures a submission finish in the second round.
Prediction: Vicente Luque to win by submission in Rd2.
Betting Brand for UFC Fans!Chris Weidman vs. Bruno Silva Prediction
Former middleweight champion Chris Weidman suffered a decision loss in his comeback fight against Brad Tavares in August of last year, which came over two years after a horrifying leg break in the Octagon. Now he’ll fight Bruno Silva, who is also eager to get a win under his belt, having lost four of his last five fights in the promotion.
When this fight was first announced the 39-year-old Weidman had indicated he was planning to retire afterwards, but since then he appears to have had a change of heart – a reminder that Weidman has always been too tough for his own good. After all, he’d already lost five of his previous seven fights prior to the leg break, with all five being via either KO or TKO, yet hadn’t called it quits. It was tough to watch his last fight as Tavares ruthlessly targeted the leg that Weidman had just spent two years and undergone two surgeries trying to fix with kicks, but again he kept battling through the pain en-route to a one-sided loss on the scorecards.
In his heyday Weidman was able to favorably strike with the division’s elite, in 2024 just months from his 40th birthday with a compromised chin and vulnerable leg it’s a different story. That being said, Weidman has always had very good wrestling and underutilized BJJ ability, so if he does want to keep competing then he would be wise to start leaning heavily on those aspects of his game.
It’s a strategy that makes even more sense when you consider his opponent, the 34-year-old Silva, who is a flawed but dangerous and wildly aggressive striker who cares more about power than technique and has a proven record of finishing opponents. In total no less than 20 of his 23 career wins have come via strikes, while he’s also never been stopped by either KO or TKO in his 14-year career. However, it’s a different story on the mat as 7 of Silva’s 10 career losses have come via submission. He also doesn’t have the best takedown defense and his recent performances have been underwhelming.
So I feel Weidman has to get this fight to the mat, but he looks slower than ever now so it’s questionable whether he has it in him to get the fight to the mat in the first place. And meanwhile if he attempts to just strike with Silva then I just can’t see him surviving in his current fragile state against such a ferocious finisher. As such it has all the making of another hard-to-watch fight, though unlike his last outing I don’t see this one going 15 minutes, with Silva instead KO’ing him in the first round.
Prediction: Bruno Silva to win by KO in Rd1.
Betting Brand for UFC Fans!Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Sedriques Dumas Prediction
After a 77 second KO victory in his UFC debut, Nursulton Ruziboev now moves on to fight Sedriques Dumas, who lost in his own promotional debut, but has since got two wins under his belt.
Despite being fairly new to the UFC the 30-year-old Ruziboev has a vast amount of experience on the regional scene with no less than 45 fights in total so far along with a couple of pro-boxing bouts too. He has an impressive finishing rate, having won 31 stoppages from 33 career wins, including a large number of submission finishes, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he can replicated that at the UFC level. His submission skills are still a useful string to his bow however, but having a solid foundation in his kickboxing and wrestling could prove to be his most reliable attributes in the Octagon as time goes on.
Meanwhile, the 28-year-old Dumas is a former Contender Series recruit who has gained attention for the wrong reasons at times due to criminal issues, including being arrested for battery as recently as February. Beyond that though he has good athleticism and a long, lengthy frame that he’ll use to deliver solid punches and kicks from range, while he’s also a fairly capable wrestler too.
I think Ruziboev matches up pretty well with Dumas here both in terms of his size and skill-set, with his wrestling and grappling advantage likely being his key to victory here, leading to a second round submission finish.
Prediction: Nursulton Ruziboev to win by submission in Rd2.
Betting Brand for UFC Fans!Bill Algeo vs. Kyle Nelson Prediction
Bill Algeo and Kyle Nelson are each coming into this fight off of back-to-back wins in the UFC’s featherweight division.
The 34-year-old Algeo is a tall, lengthy 145lb’er who has a pressure-heavy, high-volume striking style, looking to gradually break down his opponents with combinations of punches and good kicks, while also being very durable. He’s also a decent offensive wrestler and has found some success taking the back and sinking in rear-naked chokes over the years, but he can be taken down.
The 32-year-old Nelson is also quite a big featherweight who likes to play the role of the bully with his mix of boxing and wrestling. He’s capable in both regards and can make the style work for him, but he’s not always able to sustain it for the full 15 minutes, and with a 3-4-1 record in the UFC it feels like there’s likely a limit to how far he can go in the division.
Nelson’s wrestling may well be a factor here, but Algeo is a hard man to deter and on the feet he will be prove to be more active and effective with his swarming combinations. He’s also good at increasing his intensity as the rounds go on, which I think will work in his favor here to help seal a decision victory.
Prediction: Bill Algeo to win by decision.
Betting Brand for UFC Fans!Chidi Njokuani vs. Rhys McKee Prediction
Chidi Njokuani won his first two UFC fights but has since lost three in a row and now fights Rhys McKee, who suffered back-to-back losses in his first Octagon run before being released. After chalking up four wins in the Cage Warriors promotion he then returned to the UFC last year, but has since picked up another loss.
Though the 28-year-old McKee has struggled at the UFC level so far his record on the UK regional scene has been solid with all 13 of his career victories having come inside the distance, and the majority coming via strikes. There’s good reason he goes by the name ‘Skeletor’ as he’s a tall, lanky 170lb’er without much in the way of muscle mass. He utilizes his reach well though, works the jab nicely, and with solid cardio and durability his volume-striking can pay off later on his fights to secure a finish. He has been outmuscled in the UFC though and won’t have a size advantage in this particular match-up, while he also eats more punches than he should and has fairly weak takedown defense.
It’s surprising to see the 35-year-old Njokuani attempting to drop back down to welterweight for the first time in his UFC run as he’s had major issues making 170lbs in other promotions over the years. He was a good sized middleweight and even if he is successful in making his cut this weekend, by the time they get into the cage on Saturday night his naturally thicker, heavier build compared to his opponent should be quite apparent. Njokuani will also have an extra inch in height and 2″ in reach to work with and the muay thai style striker is certainly the heavier hitter here, with all eight limbs presenting a potential explosive finishing threat. Njokuani does have a lot of miles on the clock in combat sports though and has been TKO’d in two of his last three losses.
Njokuani is almost certain to have a tough weight cut, so that may well effect him later on in the fight, and could also add more risk of being knocked out. Nevertheless, with McKee being the unusual position of being the smaller man and not having the best striking defense I think he could find himself outgunned against Njokuani’s in the early rounds, leading to a 2nd round TKO finish.
Prediction: Chidi Njokauni to win by TKO in Rd2.
Betting Brand for UFC Fans!UFC On ESPN 54 Prelims
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(Predicted winners in bold)
Andre Petroski vs. Jacob Malkoun
Jamall Emmers vs. Nate Landwehr
Virna Jandiroba vs. Loopy Godinez
Julio Arce vs. Herbert Burns
Dennis Buzukja vs. Connor Matthews
Viktoriya Dudakova vs. Melissa Gatto
Angel Pacheco vs. Caolan Loughran
Ibo Aslan vs. Anton Turkalj
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