AFL Finals Week 1 Expert Tips & Predictions

The AFL Finals kick off on September 5 with Port Adelaide vs Geelong, and there are four finals games to enjoy in Week 1.

We have AFL betting tips for every game in 2024, including this weeks’ featured games between Sydney vs GWS and Brisbane vs Carlton.

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AFL Finals Week 1 Tips

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Thursday 5/9/24

7:40pm Port Adelaide Power vs Geelong Cats @ Adelaide Oval

We expect Port Adelaide to be tough to beat at home against the Cats, where the winner gets a week off in Week 2 of the finals.

It was a consistent regular reason for the Power, who warmed to the task late, and they bring in plenty of momentum to the finals.

Geelong also looked strong throughout the year, and it’s good enough to pull off an upset on Thursday. However, playing at Adelaide Oval could be the Cats’ downfall.

It’s not an easy place to play, especially with a finals atmosphere, and we think the midfield of Port Adelaide will be too strong.

Take Port Adelaide to cover the –12.5 spread in what should be a physical battle.

Betting tip: Port Adelaide –12.5 @ $1.90

Port Adelaide by 16

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Friday 6/9/24

7:40pm Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks @ MCG

The Hawks are a team no one wants to face in the finals, so the Bulldogs will need to play their best to hold them off.

It would be a shame to see the Hawks’ year end with a loss to the Bulldogs, and given how well they have been playing, we’re backing them to last another week.

We’re not discrediting the class of the Bulldogs, who have also been playing well, but the Hawks stormed into the finals with some excellent play.

Bookmakers are giving them plenty of respect at $2.10, and we expect money to come for them thick and fast. Punters shouldn’t be worried taking one of the form teams in the AFL, and they could force the Bulldogs into making mistakes.

Take the $2.10 before the odds firm to around $2.00 on game night.

Betting tip: Hawthorn @ $2.10

Hawthorn by 10

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Saturday 7/9/24

3:20pm Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants @ SCG

We are surprised by the opening line for the Swans, who are $1.63 favourites to beat the Giants on Saturday.

We priced the Swans at around $1.45 to score, so punters get a value price for the best team in the AFL, as their record suggests.

There were some hairy moments for Sydney throughout the year, but it steadied itself over the last few weeks to establish the top spot.

Getting another life might not be needed against the Giants, who finished fourth. There is ability with the Giants, but we can’t picture the Swans giving up their extra life in the opening week.

Playing at the SCG is another thing in their favour, and they should have too much on the defensive side of the ball for GWS to handle.

Betting tip: Sydney –7.5 @ $1.90

Sydney by 14

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7:30pm Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues @ Gabba

The Lions and Blues stuttered their way into the finals, so this game comes down to who wants it the most.

After being second on the AFL ladder at one point, the Lions dropped the ball and missed out on an extra life, which could cost them their season.

Carlton held off some fast finishers to take the final spot in the playoffs, so it will be feeling better about its situation at the Gabba.

However, beating Brisbane at home isn’t ideal, and this provides the Lions a chance to get back to winning form.

We’re not surprised by the –22.5 line, and it could be a statement game for Brisbane.

Betting tip: Brisbane –22.5 @ $1.90

Brisbane by 26

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