AFL Round 1 2025 Expert Tips & Predictions

The AFL continues with Round 1 action, starting on Thursday with Richmond vs Carlton at the MCG.

We have AFL betting tips for every game in 2025, including this weeks’ featured games between Hawthorn vs Essendon, Geelong vs Fremantle, and Swans vs Lions.

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AFL Round 1 Tips

Thursday 13/3/25

7:30pm Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues @ MCG

The Tigers are picked to win the wooden spoon in 2025, and we can’t see them starting their year with a victory over the Blues.

Carlton was dealt a blow with Charlie Curnow missing this week, but the Blues have enough class to handle the hapless Tigers, who are +49.5 underdogs in the Round 1 opener.

It’s a big line to cover but Carlton should be far too good.

Betting tip: Carlton Blues –49.5 @ $1.90

Carlton by 55

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Friday 14/3/25

7:40pm Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers @ MCG

Our pick for the AFL premiership is Hawthorn, and it didn’t do its chances any harm last week when beating the Swans on the road.

It was a good performance from the Hawks, who should fancy themselves to handle Essendon, despite the Bombers being a better team early in the season compared to later. However, with a week under their belt, the Hawks have the advantage.

The current line is 20.5, which is worth including in AFL picks.

Betting tip: Hawthorn Hawks –20.5 @ $1.90

Hawthorn by 24

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Saturday 15/3/25

1:20pm Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers @ GMHBA Stadium

There isn’t much between the Cats and Dockers in their opening games of the year, so we’re taking the better odds for Fremantle.

The Dockers are $2.49 underdogs with a +11.5 line, and although they can be a frustrating AFL team to back, they typically play their best footy in the opening few rounds.

It’s a tough game to predict but the Dockers represent value.

Betting tip: Fremantle Dockers +11.5 @ $1.90

Fremantle by 7

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4:15pm Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions @ SCG

The Grand Final hangover got things started for the Swans, who could struggle for much of 2025 after making the final last year.

Looking to take advantage are the Brisbane Lions in the GF rematch, and after the Lions won by a whopping 60 points in the most one-sided final in recent history, a repeat looms on Saturday at the SCG.

Getting $1.81 for the Lions is a good price, and they’ll be playing for their families at home.

Betting tip: Brisbane Lions @ $1.81

Lions by 10

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7:35pm Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Marvel Stadium

It should be another long year of losing for the Kangaroos, who are only $3.22 in head-to-head betting markets, which is a surprising line with AFL odds.

We priced the Kangaroos around $4.35 to beat the Bulldogs, who aren’t the strongest team but easily good enough to put up a big number on a struggling franchise.

We’re not convinced on seeing improvement from North Melbourne, and we’ll need to see it to believe it.

Betting tip: Western Bulldogs –20.5 @ $1.90

Bulldogs by 29

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7:35pm Collingwood Magpies vs Port Adelaide Power @ MCG

We backed the Magpies to suffer a loss to the Giants last week and they didn’t disappoint punters. They were soundly beaten by a better team, which doesn’t bode well for their chances against the Power.

Port Adelaide is a team that loves to hit the ground running, and it often leads after the first few rounds. Therefore, we’re happy to back it as an underdog at $2.39, and there has been some backing for the road team.

Include Port Adelaide in AFL multis this week.

Betting tip: Port Adelaide Power @ $2.39

Power by 5

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Sunday 16/3/25

12:35pm Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Oval

Backing the Crows at home is your best chance to cash with this team, and they should be good enough to handle the Saints on Sunday.

Adelaide can be a tough team to bet on at the best of times, with wild inconsistency, but this is an ideal time to jump on its back.

The Crows have no scar tissue in Round 1, and they should start with a bang.

Betting tip: Adelaide Crows –16.5 @ $1.90

Crows by 20

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3:20pm Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants @ MCG

We like what GWS promises in 2025, and after beating Collingwood in the opening round, it’s up and ready to go.

We can’t say the same for Melbourne, which could struggle to make the playoffs. The talent is there, but there was a lack of confidence in 2024, and that’s concerning for Round 1 fixtures.

The $1.77 odds for the Giants are too good to pass up.

Betting tip: GWS Giants @ $1.77

Giants by 10

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6:10pm West Coast Eagles vs Gold Coast Suns @ Optus Stadium

It’s tough to know what the Eagles and Suns are going to produce, but after what we saw in 2024, we can’t bet on the Eagles.

They are one of the worst teams in the competition, and although we have our reservations about the Suns, they could shine on Sunday.

Take the head-to-head price of $1.55 in the final game of the week.

Betting tip: Gold Coast Suns @ $1.55

Suns by 6

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Daryl Curnow

About Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism. Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.

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