Melbourne vs. Essendon Predictions – AFL Round 5 2025

Melbourne and Essendon battle on Saturday April 12 at 7:35pm at Adelaide Oval, with both teams needing a victory.

With just one win between them, it’s a game of desperation, and we have our best Melbourne vs. Essendon predictions & tips for the Round 5 game.

Melbourne vs. Essendon Predictions

—

Best Bet

Essendon @ $1.81

It wasn’t a good start to the year for Essendon when losing to Hawthorn and Adelaide, but the level of opposition wasn’t easy. The Bombers bounced back with a hard-fought 72-60 win over Port Adelaide, which holds them in good stead.

The future is still bright for Essendon, especially compared to Melbourne. The Demons are 0-4 after posting losses to GWS, North Melbourne, Gold Coast, and Geelong. Losing 125-66 to the Kangaroos shows how bad this team is, so we’re surprised by the $2.04 odds.

Bookmakers are giving Melbourne credit for years gone by, but with all things being equal, Essendon should put it to the sword on Saturday. $1.81 is an excellent price, and it could shorten significantly on game day.

Same Game Multi

Essendon –2.5, Zach Merrett Anytime Goal Scorer, Total Match Points Over 168.5 @ $4.50

We are confident with Essendon covering the –2.5 spread. It has a good team on paper, and with the win over Port Adelaide under their belts, the senior players should stand up and look to win consecutive games.

The odds for Zach Merrett to score a goal are $1.76, which is worth including in Melbourne vs Essendon same game multi bets. Merrett didn’t score in the win last week, but his form prior included seven goals from three games, so he’s capable of kicking one against Melbourne.

We believe Essendon will get plenty of goal opportunities, which is why we like Merrett to score and over 168.5 points. The latter will require Melbourne to carry its weight, but there were 181 points scored in their 2023 clash, and we expect something similar.

Best Value Bet

Essendon Wire-to-Wire @ $3.00

Punters get value odds for Essendon to lead after every quarter. We can’t see Melbourne doing enough to stop the Bombers, and they come off a 46-point performance against Geelong, which won’t get it done.

The most embarrassing performance was scoring 66 points against North Melbourne, and the Demons could be looking towards the offseason after just five weeks. It’s not a good look for the team, and although they should play better this week, it shouldn’t be good enough.

Back Essendon to start well and run away with it.