AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals Expert Tips & Predictions 2026

Starts in 3d 5h

The 2026 AFL finals series continues this week with the qualifying and elimination finals, starting with Fremantle vs. Hawthorn on Thursday night in Perth.

GoBet has expert AFL betting tips for every game in 2026, including this week’s Qualifying & Elimination Finals games between Geelong vs. Carlton, Sydney vs. Brisbane, and Adelaide vs. Western Bulldogs.

Thursday 3/9/26

8:10pm Fremantle vs. Hawthorn @ Optus Stadium

Betting Tip: Fremantle -15.5 @ $1.90

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Fremantle has been the best footy team all year, and we can’t see them losing their first finals match this season.

The Dockers should be well-rested and ready to produce the goods at home, and although Hawthorn is always tough to beat, especially in the finals, we have Fremantle scoring a comprehensive victory on Thursday night.

There are no weaknesses with the Dockers, and with a huge sold-out crowd on hand at Optus Stadium, they should start their finals campaign with a big victory.

Fremantle by 20

Friday 4/9/26

7:40pm Geelong vs. Carlton @ MCG

Betting Tip: Geelong -8.5 @ $1.90

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Carlton did well to beat Melbourne last week, but Geelong looks to have improved from last season, despite finishing fifth on the ladder.

We liked the way they finished their regular season, and they should have learned from their mistakes in 2025. That bodes well for a good performance on Friday night, and with Carlton having a lack of finals experience, that will count against them.

We’re not surprised to see trepidation in betting markets for Geelong. Recency bias favours Carlton, so the odds for Geelong are worth taking. We expect late money to come for them at -8.5, so snap up the line.

Geelong by 20

Saturday 5/9/26

3:15pm Sydney vs. Brisbane @ SCG

Betting Tip: Brisbane -25.5 @ $1.90

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It’s going to be a tough finals series for Sydney without some of their best players, and although we picked them as underdogs to beat North Melbourne two weeks ago, we’re jumping off their backs this week.

Brisbane is shooting for three consecutive AFL premierships, and they will be pleased by this matchup. It would have been a tough game, but all things being equal, a full-strength Lions team should comfortably handle the understrength Swans.

Take the -25.5 line before money comes for the defending champs.

Brisbane by 31

7:35pm Adelaide vs. Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Oval

Betting Tip: Adelaide -15.5 @ $1.90

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The painful memories of last season will be in the minds of Adelaide, who will be hellbent on turning that around in 2026.

They were knocked out of the finals last year in quick succession, but despite slipping to 6th on the ladder, they have proven tough to beat this season. They have a quality team, and they just need to play well on the day.

The Bulldogs got through a tough game against Collingwood, where they played with excellent pressure. However, repeating that effort in back-to-back weeks could prove too tough, especially on the road in a tough environment.

Adelaide by 20

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Editor In Chief

Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl Curnow was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.