Melbourne vs. Carlton Predictions - AFL Wild Card Finals 2026

Starts in 3d 11h

We have Melbourne vs. Carlton predictions for the AFL Wild Card Finals on Saturday, August 29 at 7:35pm at the MCG.

AFL odds have Carlton at $1.71 to make their way into the Elimination Finals next week, but it won’t be easy against a strong Demons outfit.

Best Bet

Melbourne @ $2.14

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Carlton has been on an excellent run of late, including a win over Fremantle last week, but we’re not prepared to back them at $1.71.

There is much better value with Melbourne at $2.14, as they look to bounce back from a loss to the Bulldogs, but we wouldn’t look too much into that performance. They often happen right before the finals, and the Demons will be much better this week.

Despite the Blues playing well lately, Melbourne defeated them 100-77 in March, and we expect a similar result. Carlton has improved since then, but winning in the finals isn’t something they’re used to, so Melbourne could capitalise.

A close game is expected at the MCG, and if Melbourne can soak up the early pressure from Carlton, they’ll be in a position to win in the fourth quarter.

Same Game Multi

Melbourne H2H, Bayley Fritsch 2+ Goals, Harry McKay 2+ Goals, Total Points Under 173.5 @ $13.00

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Bayley Fritsch is enjoying a good goal kicking run after scoring 13 goals in his last five games. He gives Melbourne a good option in the forward 50, and we have him kicking 2+ goals on Saturday night. Punters get $1.69 to include in AFL SGM picks.

We also have Harry McKay kicking 2+ goals for Carlton. He has been rock-solid for the Blues, kicking 10 goals in his last four games. The $1.70 odds were too good to pass up, despite our AFL picks having Carlton to lose.

Under 173.5 points add some value to picks. The last nine meetings between Melbourne and Carlton have gone under the total, so it’s a good statistical betting trend.

Best Value Bet

Bayley Fritsch First Goal Scorer @ $10.50

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Melbourne’s chances could hinge on how well they start, and we’re looking at Fritsch to get involved early in the scoring.

He looked good when scoring four goals against Port Adelaide before kicking a double last week, and if he’s aggressive, he could get the opening shot at goal.

The $10.50 odds are worth including in AFL picks as a value bet.

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Editor In Chief

Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl Curnow was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.