It’s a congested AFL premiership ladder and positions could change drastically by the end of Round 19.
There’s nine quality games on this week, starting with the Bombers vs. Swans on Friday and we have expert tips for every game on the Round 19 card.
7:50pm Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans @ Etihad Stadium
Essendon scored a good last week over Fremantle and despite Shaun McKernan’s injury, we still believe that they’re a chance to beat the Swans on Friday.
The Swans were disappointing in defeat to the Suns when losing 88-64 last week at home and a much better performance will be needed against Essendon.
The injury of McKernan has forced bookmakers to make this game a close contest in the markets but there’s good value on offer for the Bombers if they can replace the big forward.
Betting tip: Essendon to win @ $1.78 (BET NOW)
Essendon by 20
1:45pm Richmond Tigers vs. Collingwood Magpies @ MCG
Both teams are coming off a bye and home advantage might be the best thing in favour of the Tigers this week.
They scored a quality 111-57 away win at St Kilda last week and although the level of opposition wasn’t high, it was a smashing win and will give them more confidence being at the top of the table.
Looking to bridge the gap will be the Magpies, which were equally impressive when putting away Kangaroos 130-64 last Saturday. The win propelled the Magpies to third on the ladder and a win this Saturday could see them take the top spot.
We’re not surprised to see the Tigers installed as the $1.45 favourites but don’t rule out Collingwood.
Betting tip: Collingwood +15.5 @ $1.92 (BET NOW)
Richmond by 12
2:10pm Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions @ GMHBA Stadium
The Lions have showed a resurgence in the middle stages of the season and although defeated last week, the five-point loss to the Crows won them some fans.
It has been another long season for the Lions but some recent form has seen them make headway. That could stop this week, however, as they take on the Cats, which are coming of a thrilling 100-98 win over Melbourne.
It was a narrow victory for the Cats, which desperately needed the win and they will look to build momentum from that.
Bookmakers believe the Cats will be too good for the Lions this week and we agree.
Betting tip: Geelong –35.5 @ $1.92 (BET NOW)
Geelong by 41
4:35pm GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints @ Spotless Stadium
The Giants are the shortest-priced favourites of the week and with good reason. They’re coming off a 80-58 win over the Power away from home and that was a performance of a team ready for the playoffs.
They will be helped by playing the Saints this week, which were awful against Richmond last Friday night and it’s hard to see them turning their season around.
The current line is set at 39.5 and that heavily favours the Giants.
Betting tip: GWS –39.5 @ $1.92 (BET NOW)
GWS by 50
7:25pm Gold Coast Suns vs. Carlton Blues @ Metricon Stadium
The Suns pulled a win out of the bag last week against the Swans and that form should continue on to this week, but unpredictably has plagued their season.
Confidence should be at its highest for the Suns after scoring by 88-64 last week and it’s not like the Blues are bringing in hot form of their own.
Carlton lost horribly to the Hawks last week (124-52) and it’s tough to see them getting up for this game. They haven’t been able to build any momentum this season and they will likely need to score over 90 points to stop the Suns.
Betting tip: Gold Coast –20.5 @ $1.92 (BET NOW)
Gold Coast by 38
7:40pm Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons @ Adelaide Oval
A much-needed win was secured by the Crows last week against the Lions but it’s about to get much harder against the Demons, which will be hurting after losing a close one.
The Demons lost by two points to the Cats and it was a game they could have won. The loss saw Melbourne slip down to seventh on the ladder and they’re in a tough position with some hard games to come.
One comes this week against the underperforming Crows, who have been anything but classy at home this season. They will need to lift to another gear to hold off Melbourne and we don’t have that trust in them yet.
Betting tip: Melbourne to win @ $2.05 (BET NOW)
Melbourne by 10
1:10pm North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles @ Blundstone Arena
We’re a little surprised at the odds for the West Coast Eagles this week and punters could lock in the early value.
$1.80 is being offered by the team that’s currently second in the premiership and there was no cause for concern about their 100-46 win against the Bulldogs last week.
North Melbourne is $2 with bookmakers despite coming off a 130-64 thrashing at the hands of Collingwood and although some players might not be available, we’re taking the value on offer while it lasts.
Betting tip: West Coast to win @ $1.80 (BET NOW)
West Coast by 28
3:20pm Western Bulldogs vs. Port Adelaide Power @ Mars Stadium
The Power couldn’t afford to lose that game against the Giants last week and now they will have to worry about securing their top-eight spot.
Losing 80-58 at home isn’t going to give them much confidence going forward, especially considering they’re on the road against a Bulldogs team which can cause the odd upset.
This game is less about whether the Bulldogs can win and more about whether the Power have the mental toughness to bounce back. There’s some trepidation in the market but we’ll allow them one more chance.
Betting tip: Port Adelaide –17.5 @ $1.92 (BET NOW)
Port Adelaide by 21
4:40pm Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks @ Optus Stadium
The Hawks came to life last week with a 124-52 win over the Blues and we’re predicting another good effort against the Dockers this week.
Carlton haven’t been able to find much last week and come into this with a loss to the Bombers. There wasn’t much to get excited about in that performance and this is a game the Hawks will be identifying as a must-win.
We’re not confident with them covering the points spread but there’s value with the head-to-head market.
Betting tip: Hawthorn to win @ $1.42 (BET NOW)
Hawthorn by 18