We have expert betting tips for AFL Preliminary Finals this week between the Melbourne Demons vs Geelong Cats and Port Adelaide Power vs Western Bulldogs.
Melbourne and Port Adelaide have been patiently waiting after the Cats scored an easy win over the Giants and the Bulldogs scored a thrilling win against Brisbane.
Both finals should be terrific contests, and we look at where punters can make the best value.
AFL Preliminary Finals Betting Tips
Melbourne Demons vs Geelong Cats @ Optus Stadium
The Geelong Cats roared back into premiership contention with a comprehensive win over the GWS Giants last week.
They scored a 103-68 victory over a tough Giants team, and it was Tom Hawkins leading the way with five goals. Hawkins is the key man for Geelong, so if he’s in fine scoring form, Melbourne will need to make sure he doesn’t get open.
Geelong also had strong inputs from Gary Rohan, Sam Menegola and Rhys Stanley. It was a fine performance but facing the minor premiership winners won’t be easy.
Melbourne has been lying in wait for Geelong following a 93-60 win over the Brisbane Lions in Week 1 of the finals. The Demons have looked every part the championship team, so we’re not surprised by the bookmakers’ odds this week.
The Demons are the $1.49 favourites in head-to-head markets. The current line is 12.5 points, which is where we priced this game. Melbourne deserves to be favourite and it has had time to rest and recover.
We think the Cats could be tired after last week’s effort, which should take its toll. Melbourne is a team that likes to get out and run, which should cause the Cats some problems.
The best value is in the halftime/fulltime betting markets. $1.49 is too short for our liking, and the 12.5 is too close to the mark. Therefore, take Melbourne to lead at halftime and fulltime at $1.80. We’re happy with those odds consideringly the slight increase in risk.
Betting tip: Melbourne HTFT @ $1.80 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Demons by 12
Port Adelaide Power vs Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Oval
The Western Bulldogs scored one of the most thrilling wins of the season when beating Brisbane with a late behind on Saturday night.
It was a gutsy and grueling win, but it came at a cost. Marcus Bontempelli is in doubt for the preliminary final with a knee injury, and Cody Weightman will miss the game due to concussion.
The win will give the Western Bulldogs plenty of confidence that they can beat the top teams. Brisbane was by no means excellent, but they look well-prepared for this contest.
However, Port Adelaide looked excellent when beating Geelong 86-43 in the first round of the finals. The Power had struggled to beat top four teams all season, but they turned that around and we think that momentum can take them all the way.
Playing at Adelaide Oval is another massive bonus. They have always been a better team at home, so we’re surprised bookmakers don’t have them shorter in the market.
We priced the Power at $1.35, so the $1.47 is generous. The current betting line is 12.5 points, which should see solid two-way action with punters. However, we’re confident the Power are the much better team, and they’ll also be well rested and ready to fire.
Port Adelaide should come out humming and punters should jump on the line before it moves throughout the week. We expect the 12.5 to move to around 17.5 on Saturday, which is a significant move, but most of the money should come for the home side.
Betting tip: Port Adelaide Power –12.5 @ $1.90 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Power by 25
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After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl’s tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.