** 2021 preview and predictions are shown below – 2022 predictions will be updated on the Monday before the round starts! **
We have expert betting tips for the 2021 AFL Final between the Melbourne Demons and Western Bulldogs next Saturday.
Melbourne put Geelong to bed last week before the Bulldogs created a huge upset when destroying the Port Adelaide Power.
It sets up for a terrific final at Optus Stadium in Western Australia, where Melbourne is the early favourite. We look at the best bets for the final, including game winner, Norm Smith Medal, 1st goal scorer and every option where punters get value odds.
AFL Grand Final Tips
Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs Betting Preview
Melbourne comes off a fantastic performance in beating the Geelong Cats 125-42 last week. It was the best we have ever seen the Demons, who never allowed the Cats into the game.
The minor premiers scored 19 goals in the rout, and the defence was superb. They allowed the Cats just 42 points on 6.6, which is an incredible effort for a preliminary final contest.
As impressive as the Demons were on Friday, the Western Bulldogs were just as impressive on Saturday. The Bulldogs demolished the Port Adelaide Power 116-45. It was an incredible effort, especially in front of a roaring crowd in Adelaide.
They showed they’re up to win the AFL title this season, but they are the current underdogs to beat Melbourne.
Sportsbet has Melbourne at $1.64 in head-to-head betting markets, which isn’t surprising. They have been the better team for most of the season, and there is no reason to doubt their ability heading into the final. However, punters could see the $2.26 price for the Bulldogs as a value option.
Melbourne and the Bulldogs have met twice in 2021 and it’s a 1-1 split. Melbourne won the first meeting in May 87-59 before the Bulldogs replied with an 85-65 win in July.
Marcus Bontempelli has a huge late inclusion for the Bulldogs after it looked like he might miss the prelim final. He orchestrated things on the field for the Dogs, so his leadership is vital next Saturday.
The same can be said for Melbourne’s Christian Petracca, who had a terrific prelim final. He was just about best on ground if it wasn’t for the five-goal haul of Max Gawn. He was terrific, and if he’s anything near that form in the final, Melbourne will be tough to stop.
We give the edge to the Demons because they’re due. We respect the Bulldogs’ ability to win big games, but if there was ever a year where Melbourne would win, it’s 2021.
Take the $1.64, but we’re also comfortable taking the –7.5 in spread betting markets.
Bet: Melbourne Demons @ $1.64 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Demons by 14
1st Goal Scorer Betting Picks
Max Gawn comes off one of his best goal-scoring efforts, so we’re picking him to keep the momentum going in the final.
Gawn is on the sixth line of betting for the Melbourne Demons to score the first goal, which is a surprise. We thought he would be shorter in the betting following his performance against Geelong, but we’re happy with the odds available.
He is paying $20 to score the final’s first goal. We like Gawn to get it done, but we also like Cody Weightman for the Bulldogs.
He should return following concussion protocol, and he could have an immediate impact. Weightman know how to score early goals, so take him as a saver bet at $12, or take him to score the first goal for the Western Bulldogs at a shorter quote.
Bet: Max Gawn @ $20 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Norm Smith Medal Betting Picks
It comes as no surprise to see Christian Petracca as the Norm Smith Medal favourite at $6. The Melbourne midfielder is always around the action and he looked excellent in a winning performance last week.
If Melbourne win, it’s likely due to the service provided by Petracca. That will earn him plenty of votes for the Norm Smith Medal, so he goes clearly on top.
We also like Max Gawn as a saver bet. He couldn’t have played much better last week, and although his form might taper off a touch for the final, he looks ready for the occasion.
Gawn is another player that likes to put himself in the action, which always pleases the judges. He is an $8 chance, so he has gathered solid betting support.
Bet: Christian Petracca @ $6 – Bet @ Sportsbet
🤑 Who should you bet with for the AFL Grand Final?
💰 What is the best bet for the AFL Grand Final?
To find out our best bets for the AFL Grand Final, read our full AFL Grand Final preview and betting tips!
📺 How can I watch the AFL Grand Final?
For detailed information on how to watch and live stream the AFL Grand Final, read our guide on how to live stream AFL!
🏉 What are the best exotic bets for the AFL Grand Final?
Read our AFL Grand Final preview and bettings tips to find out the best exotic bets like first goal scorer and Norm Smith Medal winner!
After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl’s tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.