This article will be updated with AFL Grand Final 2018 betting tips on the Monday before the Grand Final! Check back soon!
Update 29/09/2017: both teams have named an unchanged lineup from last week and out betting picks also remain unchanged. Betting odds have been updated to reflect the current prices on offer.
The 2017 AFL Grand Final is here and we have the Adelaide Crows taking on the Richmond Tigers.
Both the Crows and the Tigers had fantastic wins on Friday night and Saturday evening but both sides could be forced to deal with suspensions and players unable to come back from injury.
Please note: these are our early picks prior to team announcements on Thursday night. There would need to be some major changes for us to change our picks this week and we recommend getting in early because we feel that the current odds will be hammered.
14:30 | Saturday 30/09/2017
Adelaide vs Richmond @ MCG
Adelaide Crows ($1.73):
Adelaide were dominant in their win over Geelong on Friday night and set the win up with an explosive six goal first quarter.
The Crouch brothers and Rory Sloane were brilliant in the midfield and Charlie Cameron and Eddie Betts were live wires up forward. Their captain, Tex Walker, didn’t have a major impact on the game but we would expect him to have a big game in the Grand Final against Alex Rance.
The MRP will look at Rory Sloane’s hit on Patrick Dangerfield but he should have no case to answer. This contact was a case of two players going for the ball and one coming off slightly worse for wear than the other. Update: Rory Sloane was cleared by the MRP and will play on Saturday.
Adelaide forward Mitch McGovern’s hamstring injury is said to be worse than first thought and he will not play in the Grand Final. Update: McGovern was close to playing but has been officially ruled out.
One factor that cannot be forgotten for the Crows, is the Phil Walsh factor. It will be spoken about a lot in the media this week and a win on the last Saturday in September would be the ultimate tribute to their former coach.
Richmond Tigers ($2.15):
Richmond’s win over GWS in front of 90,000+ Richmond fans was something special but they will be sweating on the MRP verdicts for captain Trent Cotchin and defender Brandon Ellis.
Cotchin’s hit on Dylan Shiel left him concussed and unable to return to the field after quarter time, and Brandon Ellis’ went for a bump on Lachie Whitfield but his shoulder clipped Whitfield’s chin.
While Ellis had a quieter game against the Giants, Cotchin played his best game for the season and was a contested ball winning and tackling machine. For Richmond to have a chance of beating Adelaide, they need Cotchin to play.
It will be a shame for both players to miss a Grand Final, but if the MRP is to be consistent (lol), it’s hard to see either player escaping without missing at least one match.
Update: both Trent Cotchin and Brandon Ellis have escaped suspension and will be free to play in the Grand Final. This does not impact any of our betting picks.
The next time Dustin Martin walks out onto the MCG he will be a Brownlow Medalist (read our preview for the 2017 Brownlow Medal here). He was brilliant again against GWS and the Tigers will need his biggest game yet to overcome the Crows.
The Rioli’s are big game players and Daniel is no exception. Rioli booted four goals in the GWS win and the Tigers will need some more Rioli magic on Saturday.
We would’ve picked the Crows even if we thought Cotchin and Ellis would play, and the fact that they most likely won’t play gives us even more confidence that the Crows will run away with a big win.
The Crows are the better team all around the ground and they have the superior foot skills. Their clean skills and quick ball movement will eventually break the game open and we’ll take the early markets for them to have a big win.
Matt Crouch is our pick to be the best on ground and take home the Norm Smith Medal, but Dustin Martin is a big chance to take home the Norm Smith in what we think will be the losing side.
Adelaide @ $1.73 (BET NOW) – take the early price on this one!
Big win/little win: Adelaide 40+ @
$5.50 $5.00 (BET NOW)
Line: Adelaide -5.5 @ $1.92 (BET NOW)
Total game points over
170.5 172.5 @ $1.90 (BET NOW)
First goal scorer – Charlie Cameron @
$15 $11 (BET NOW)
Norm Smith Medalist – Matt Crouch @
$7 $8 (BET NOW)