It’s footy season! We’re back with AFL tips for every game in 2023, including the season opener on Thursday between Richmond vs Carlton.
The teams are desperate to get their year off to a winning start, so Round 1 couldn’t be more important.
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AFL Round 1 Tips
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Thursday 14/3/24
7:30pm Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers @ MCG
Carlton showed off their AFL premiership credentials when beating Brisbane by a point in the opening round last week.
It was a gutsy effort, and Charlie Curnow couldn’t have been any more impressive, which is a great early sign.
The same can’t be said for Richmond, which was pumped 99-60 by the Gold Coast Suns. It could be another year for the once-great club.
Betting tip: Carlton –19.5 @ $1.90
Carlton by 26
Friday 15/3/24
7:40pm Collingwood Magpies vs Sydney Swans @ MCG
Collingwood looks to rebound following an opening round loss to the GWS Giants, where it allowed 114 points.
It was the only team to allow over 100 points in the round, and now it needs to defeat a Swans team coming off an 86-64 win over Melbourne.
The Swans were impressive defensively, and although the $2.68 underdogs on Friday, they’re good enough to cover the +12.5 spread and send a shock to the Magpies.
Betting tip: Sydney +12.5 @ $1.90
Magpies by 4
Saturday 16/3/24
1:45pm Essendon vs Hawthorn Hawks @ MCG
The season kicks off for Essendon and Hawthorn, and expectations aren’t overly high.
Bookmakers have Essendon as favourites at home, which isn’t surprising. It looks to have the power edge through the middle, and that could be too much for Hawthorn.
Take the home side at the –8.5 line.
Betting tip: Essendon –8.5 @ $1.90
Essendon by 12
4:35pm GWS Giants vs North Melbourne Kangaroos @ ENGIE Stadium
It was hard not to be impressed with GWS last week, and winning this game against North Melbourne should be a formality.
The Giants could be one of the premiership contenders in 2024, and we expect to see the Kangaroos at the bottom of the AFL ladder.
There are 43.5 points between them at the sportsbook, but we could see why on Saturday afternoon.
Betting tip: GWS –43.5 @ $1.90
GWS by 52
7:30pm Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints @ GMHBA Stadium
There is some trepidation with the Geelong Cats at the sportsbook, which leads us to taking the Saints.
We’re not sure what to make of either team, and being Round 1, there is no form guide to look at. However, based on betting markets, we’re backing St Kilda to cover the spread.
Getting a +12.5 line in what should be a close game is too good to pass up, and the Saints have solid scoring power and a tidy defence.
Betting tip: St Kilda +12.5 @ $1.90
St Kilda by 4
8:10pm Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows @ People First Stadium
We loved what we saw from the Suns in the opening round, but we don’t like what we see with betting markets.
Following an impressive victory, we thought bookmakers would have Gold Coast heavily favoured to beat Adelaide. The Crows could have a nice 2024 ahead, but we would have priced them around $2.40 to win, not $2.14.
Despite the lack of early betting support, we’re happy to take the Suns at the value odds.
Betting tip: Gold Coast @ $1.71
Gold Coast by 10
Sunday 17/4/24
1:00pm Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs @ MCG
Looking to bounce back from a loss is Melbourne, which should fancy its chances against the Bulldogs.
Despite looking rusty and out of sorts last week, we still believe Melbourne is a top four chance with a slight improvement in attitude.
The Bulldogs are also a top chance, but with home field advantage and a fear of going 0-2, Melbourne should prevail.
Betting tip: Melbourne –6.5 @ $1.90
Melbourne by 8
4:00pm Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles @ Adelaide Oval
The Port Adelaide Power are expected to put up a big number on the hapless West Coast Eagles, hence the difference in odds.
Port Adelaide is a $1.06 favourite outright, and –45.5 with points spread markets. That’s a huge Round 1 line for teams that haven’t seen action.
However, we’re not putting out hard earned money on the Eagles.
Betting tip: Port Adelaide –45.5 @ $1.90
Port Adelaide by 50
6:50pm Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions @ Optus Stadium
Despite losing by a point to Carlton, we’re picking the Lions to get back on track against Fremantle.
Winning on the road won’t be easy, and the Dockers can be one of those teams that frustrate the better teams throughout 2024.
However, Brisbane is the better side, and we’re taking them to even the ledger at 1-1.
Betting tip: Brisbane –14.5 @ $1.90
Brisbane by 21
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💰 What is the best bet for AFL Round 1?
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🏉 What is the fixture for AFL Round 1?
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